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NGX Ltd (NGX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of NGX Ltd A$0.05, price A$0.07, upside -32.9%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000273088

NL Thin data Sep 23, 2026

NGX Ltd

NGX · AU

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value A$0.0490 · Overvalued (−33%)
!Quality 47/100
!Weak Growth
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/6)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$1.27 A$0.0410 Fair Value A$0.0490 Mar 2010 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0410 – A$1.27 · fair‑value band A$0.0420 – A$0.0560 · the A$0.0730 price screens above the A$0.0490 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

NGX Limited, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the exploration and development of resource projects in Malawi and Namibia. The company explores for graphite and uranium deposits. NGX Limited was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

NGX Ltd (NGX) currently trades at A$0.0730, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0490, implying the stock looks roughly 49.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0420 (bear) to A$0.0560 (bull), the price of A$0.0730 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

NGX Ltd reported revenue of A$233K in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −A$2.5M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$7.6M (≈ $5.4M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0300 · Return on equity −22.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −195,796% · Operating margin −9,167% · Free cash flow −A$2.2M · Net cash A$3.8M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −33%, NGX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0420 Fair Value A$0.0490 Bull A$0.0560
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0600 A$0.0800 A$0.1100 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0600 A$0.0800 A$0.1100 52

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 32
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 50
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NGX screens 49% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 457 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/5 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −30% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −15% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.52× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vale S.A XVALO €12.26 €8.03 −35%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co 601958 ¥20.99 ¥12.24 −42%

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NGX Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0490 −49%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NGX Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NGX

Frequently asked questions

Is NGX Ltd (NGX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0490 versus a price of A$0.0730, about −33% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NGX?
Our model-based fair value for NGX Ltd is A$0.0490 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0730.
What is the quality score of NGX?
NGX Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NGX Ltd (NGX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0490 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0420, optimistic scenario A$0.0560. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NGX Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0490, about −33% upside versus a price of A$0.0730 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0420, optimistic scenario A$0.0560. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NGX Ltd it is A$0.0490 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0730. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NGX Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NGX trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0730, fair value A$0.0490, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NGX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0730); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0490). For NGX Ltd the two are A$0.0240 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NGX Ltd worth?
The market values NGX Ltd at about A$7.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0730; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0490 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NGX?
Our models span a range for NGX Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0420, base A$0.0490, optimistic A$0.0560 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0730). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
Balance-sheet figures for NGX Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −22.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NGX from its 52-week high?
NGX Ltd trades at A$0.0730, about 59% below its 52-week high of A$0.1800 and 4% above the low of A$0.0700 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0490 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NGX Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NGX Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0730, calculated fair value A$0.0490 (−33%), Quality Score 47/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NGX calculated?
We run NGX Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0490, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. NGX Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0730. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0490, about −33% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NGX Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0560). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of NGX Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
The market capitalisation of NGX Ltd is A$7.6M (≈ $5.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
Earnings per share at NGX Ltd are A$−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NGX Ltd is −22.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NGX Ltd is −195,796% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
The operating margin of NGX Ltd is −9,167% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does NGX Ltd (NGX) generate?
The free cash flow of NGX Ltd is −A$2.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does NGX Ltd (NGX) hold?
NGX Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$3.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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