Orkla ASA (ORK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Orkla ASA stock NOK 138, price NOK 102, upside +35.9%, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 55.07 – kr 126.13 · fair‑value band kr 87.41 – kr 202.32 · the kr 101.90 price screens below the kr 138.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Orkla ASA operates as an industrial investment company within brands and consumer-oriented businesses worldwide.
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It offers decorative paints, marine coatings, protective coatings, and powder coatings; frozen pizza, condiments, bread toppings, and ready-to-eat meals; bakery, ice cream, and plant-based products; and confectionery, biscuits, and salty snacks.
The company also provides branded consumer health products, such as daily nutrition and oral health, wound care, and functional personal care under the Möller's, Jordan, and Salvequick brand names; spices and spice blends, ready-to-eat sweets, breakfast mixes, and other; and cleaning and personal hygiene products, such as detergents, cleaning equipment, and personal care products.
In addition, it operates a franchised pizza business; offers paintbrushes, rollers, and other painting project consumables comprising sanding equipment, tape, protective gear, and cleaning products; and health and sports nutrition products.
The company was founded in 1654 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway.
Stock analysis
Orkla ASA (ORK) currently trades at kr 101.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 138.45, implying the stock looks roughly 26% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 214.76 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 101.90 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 58.27, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 87.41 (bear) to kr 202.32 (bull), the price of kr 101.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Orkla ASA reported revenue of 71.5B NOK in FY2025 versus 50.4B NOK in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was 11.5B NOK in FY2025, compounding +24.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 101B NOK (≈ $10.8B) Large · P/E ratio 15.5 · P/S ratio 1.42 · EPS (TTM) kr 6.57 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 9.6% · Return on equity 15.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at 36%, ORK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 87.41Fair Value kr 138.45Bullkr 202.32
Price kr 101.90 · Upside +35.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 2.18 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +13.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Per share before 1999divided by the spin-off factor 1.1341
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.5% vs 13.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 123% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Norway: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.3% a year for the price and −1.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (69 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate durability in pricing and operations forms the main strength, while thin evidence on efficiency, uniqueness and long-term sustainability marks the chief weakness.
Main risk: Private-label products from major Nordic grocery chains could erode demand for Orkla's branded packaged foods and force price reductions that squeeze margins.
Bull case: Orkla could strengthen its regional brands through targeted innovation in healthier and sustainable options while leveraging its manufacturing scale to supply private-label ranges profitably.
Bear case: Intensifying private-label competition combined with tighter health and sourcing regulations could steadily compress margins and volumes in Orkla's core branded staples portfolio over several years.
Orkla keeps repurchasing its own shares under the ongoing program, adding over two million in the latest week alone and now holding nearly three percent of its capital. This occurs even as some analysts trim longer-term growth expectations due to softer organic trends in parts of the portfolio. Our models see the shares as undervalued, but does the buyback reflect real confidence in the branded staples business or mainly a way to distribute capital while growth stays muted?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 629 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+35.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets12.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)10.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−5.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orkla ASA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORK
Frequently asked questions
Is Orkla ASA (ORK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 138.45 versus a price of kr 101.90, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ORK?
Our model-based fair value for Orkla ASA is kr 138.45 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 101.90.
What is the quality score of ORK?
Orkla ASA has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orkla ASA (ORK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 138.45 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 87.41, optimistic scenario kr 202.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orkla ASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 138.45, about +36% upside versus a price of kr 101.90 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 87.41, optimistic scenario kr 202.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orkla ASA (ORK)?
Orkla ASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 70.8B NOK (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Orkla ASA pay a dividend?
Orkla ASA currently shows a dividend yield of 3.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orkla ASA (ORK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orkla ASA would have to grow free cash flow by +2.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORK use?
Our models discount Orkla ASA at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for Norway. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orkla ASA that is +2.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orkla ASA (ORK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orkla ASA grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies +2.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orkla ASA (ORK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orkla ASA (+2.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orkla ASA (ORK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.66 %: that much free cash flow Orkla ASA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orkla ASA (ORK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orkla ASA it is kr 138.45 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of kr 101.90. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orkla ASA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, ORK trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 101.90, fair value kr 138.45, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 101.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 138.45). For Orkla ASA the two are kr 36.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orkla ASA worth?
The market values Orkla ASA at about 101B NOK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is kr 101.90; our models calculate a fair value of kr 138.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORK?
Our models span a range for Orkla ASA: cautious scenario kr 87.41, base kr 138.45, optimistic kr 202.32 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price kr 101.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORK?
Orkla ASA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 138.45 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 14.9 (reported for FY2025: 8.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 17.4. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 2.1, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 12.2.
What is the PEG ratio of ORK?
The PEG ratio of Orkla ASA is 1.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orkla ASA (ORK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orkla ASA (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 15.1%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORK from its 52-week high?
Orkla ASA trades at kr 101.90, about 19% below its 52-week high of kr 126.13 and 13% above the low of kr 90.55 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 138.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orkla ASA?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orkla ASA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price kr 101.90, calculated fair value kr 138.45 (+36%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORK calculated?
We run Orkla ASA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 138.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Orkla ASA currently trades 26% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orkla ASA (ORK)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was kr 101.90. Our model-based fair value is kr 138.45, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orkla ASA right now?
Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (kr 87.41 to kr 202.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Orkla ASA (ORK) come from?
Earnings per share at Orkla ASA grew +12.7 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.2 %, EBIT margin +1.0 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Orkla ASA
How large is the market capitalisation of Orkla ASA (ORK)?
The market capitalisation of Orkla ASA is 101B NOK (≈ $10.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orkla ASA (ORK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orkla ASA is 1.42 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orkla ASA (ORK)?
Earnings per share at Orkla ASA are kr 6.57 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orkla ASA (ORK)?
The dividend yield of Orkla ASA is 3.9% (payout 102%, on adjusted earnings, reported 60.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orkla ASA (ORK)?
The net margin of Orkla ASA is 9.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orkla ASA (ORK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orkla ASA is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orkla ASA (ORK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orkla ASA is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orkla ASA (ORK)?
The operating margin of Orkla ASA is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orkla ASA (ORK)?
Revenue at Orkla ASA is growing −5.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orkla ASA (ORK)?
Earnings per share at Orkla ASA are growing −72.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Orkla ASA (ORK) carry?
The net debt of Orkla ASA is 12.4B NOK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026