Orsted A/S (ORSTED) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Orsted A/S stock DKK 33.25, price DKK 149, that is 77.6% below the price, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Our calculation puts a fair price 78% below what the stock costs today.
Revenue last quarter +73% vs. a year ago.
Loss over the last twelve months · -1.7% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 3.8%
Moderate debt
Fair value kr 33.25 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 34/100
Weak Growth(revenue 3y −20.4 %/yr in DKK)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers(3/13)
Narrow moat32/100 · thin data
Thin data
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Regulatory uncertainty from US permit review🚩Regulatory pushback on Revolution Wind permits🚩Dependence on few turbine suppliers🚩Chinese turbine makers with lower prices
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 99.54 – kr 561.37 · fair‑value band kr 24.93 – kr 41.56 · the kr 148.70 price screens above the kr 33.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Ørsted A/S, together with its subsidiaries, owns, develops, constructs, and operates offshore and onshore wind farms, solar farms, and energy storage and combined heat and power (CHP) plants. It operates through Offshore, Onshore, and Bioenergy & Other segments.
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The Offshore segment owns, develops, constructs, and operates offshore wind farms in Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific region. The Onshore segment owns, develops, constructs, and operates onshore wind and solar farms in the United States, including integrated storage.
The Bioenergy & Other segment generates heat and power and offers ancillary services from CHP plants in Denmark; and optimizes its gas portfolio, as well as manages its Danish and Swedish B2B business.
The company was formerly known as DONG Energy A/S and changed its name to Ørsted A/S in November 2017. Ørsted A/S was incorporated in 1972 and is based in Fredericia, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Orsted A/S (ORSTED) currently trades at kr 148.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 33.25, 78% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of kr 63.07 per share, and 1 of the 12 models we run sit above the kr 148.70 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 7.98, and 11 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 24.93 (bear) to kr 41.56 (bull), the price of kr 148.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Orsted A/S reported revenue of 63.6B DKK in FY2025 versus 69.1B DKK in FY2021, a compound −2.1%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B DKK in FY2025, compounding −31.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 196B DKK (≈ $29.4B) Large · P/S ratio 2.12 · EPS (TTM) kr −10.50 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity −0.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 17.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −78%, ORSTED screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (kr 3.49 to kr 162.09). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bearkr 24.93Fair Value kr 33.25Bullkr 41.56
Price kr 148.70 · Downside -77.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.6% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−40.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−41.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−41.1% vs −20.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → −3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
AI conclusion: Progress on projects in the UK and Poland stands as the main strength while weak margins, negative cash flow and limited durable advantage form the central weakness.
Main risk: Reliance on only two non-Chinese offshore turbine suppliers, with Siemens Gamesa supplying all current projects, could cause supply disruptions or cost increases that squeeze project margins and execution.
Bull case: Orsted could deepen partnerships with its key suppliers and accelerate use of AI for operations to cut costs and improve reliability, strengthening its position against supply risks.
Bear case: Persistent supplier constraints combined with aggressive Chinese pricing could delay projects, erode margins and limit Orsted's ability to compete effectively in key European and global markets.
Ørsted faces renewed regulatory pushback on its nearly complete Revolution Wind project in the US, where authorities seek to revisit key permits after years of review. This adds uncertainty to a business already navigating high costs and shifting policy in offshore wind, even as it advances projects elsewhere like the UK and Poland. Will US hurdles ultimately constrain growth more than European operations can offset?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 195 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Below median
Fair Value upside−77.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−2.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)17.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)72.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.73× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.64× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.75× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.8× · Pricier than median
PEG0.29× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 14
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)64· sector 70
DIVIDEND (yield)7· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orsted A/S Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORSTED
Frequently asked questions
Is Orsted A/S (ORSTED) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 33.25 versus a price of kr 148.70, about 78% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORSTED?
Our model-based fair value for Orsted A/S is kr 33.25 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 148.70.
What is the quality score of ORSTED?
Orsted A/S has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 33.25 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 24.93, optimistic scenario kr 41.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orsted A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 33.25, about 78% lower versus a price of kr 148.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 24.93, optimistic scenario kr 41.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Orsted A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 92.6B DKK (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Orsted A/S pay a dividend?
Orsted A/S currently shows a dividend yield of 0.35% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Orsted A/S has a dividend yield of 0.3%.
What is the intrinsic value of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orsted A/S it is kr 33.25 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of kr 148.70. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Orsted A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, ORSTED trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 148.70, fair value kr 33.25, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORSTED?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 148.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 33.25). For Orsted A/S the two are kr 115.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orsted A/S worth?
The market values Orsted A/S at about 196B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is kr 148.70; our models calculate a fair value of kr 33.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORSTED?
Our models span a range for Orsted A/S: cautious scenario kr 24.93, base kr 33.25, optimistic kr 41.56 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price kr 148.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ORSTED?
The PEG ratio of Orsted A/S is 0.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orsted A/S (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −0.7%, debt of 0.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORSTED from its 52-week high?
Orsted A/S trades at kr 148.70, about 13% below its 52-week high of kr 170.35 and 29% above the low of kr 115.40 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 33.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orsted A/S?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, VERBUND AG, Fortum Oyj, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orsted A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price kr 148.70, calculated fair value kr 33.25 (−78%), Quality Score 34/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORSTED calculated?
We run Orsted A/S through 12 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 33.25 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Orsted A/S itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 148.70. Our model-based fair value is kr 33.25, about 78% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orsted A/S right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 41.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Orsted A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
The market capitalisation of Orsted A/S is 196B DKK (≈ $29.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orsted A/S is 2.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Earnings per share at Orsted A/S are kr −10.50. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
The dividend yield of Orsted A/S is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
The net margin of Orsted A/S is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orsted A/S is −0.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orsted A/S is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
The operating margin of Orsted A/S is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Revenue at Orsted A/S is growing +72.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Earnings per share at Orsted A/S are growing −94.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Orsted A/S (ORSTED) generate?
The free cash flow of Orsted A/S is −31.7B DKK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Orsted A/S (ORSTED) carry?
The net debt of Orsted A/S is 78.8B DKK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 9, 2026