PEDEVCO Corp (PED) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of PEDEVCO Corp stock $4.09, price $14.51, that is 71.8% below the price, quality 26 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.10 – $42.20 · fair‑value band $3.11 – $5.07 · the $14.51 price screens above the $4.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 10, 2026.
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PEDEVCO Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and gas company in the United States. It engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas assets. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
PEDEVCO Corp (PED) currently trades at $14.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.09, 72% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $3.11 (bear) to $5.07 (bull), the price of $14.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
PEDEVCO Corp reported revenue of $45.8M in FY2025 versus $15.9M in FY2021, a compound +30.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$10.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $193M Micro · P/S ratio 1.70 · EPS (TTM) $−2.62 · Net margin −14.6% · Return on equity −10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 33.2% · Revenue (TTM) $116M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −72%, PED screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.11Fair Value $4.09Bull$5.07
Price $14.51 · Downside -71.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA$3.66$4.81$5.9667
NCAV (Graham)$7.80$10.45$15.6054
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA$3.66$4.81$5.9667
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$7.80$10.45$15.6054
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $288,757, on May 26, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $405,169.
BuySimon G Kukes10% owner147,070 shares at $13.00$1.9MOct 8, 2026
SaleMoore ClarkExecutive VP3× since Nov 24, 2025: 87,390 shares, avg. $4.94$432,002Aug 19, 2026
BuyMartyn WillsherDirector20,000 shares at $14.44$288,757May 26, 2026
SalePaul Anthony PinkstonCAO19,000 shares at $0.4600$8,740Nov 24, 202510b5-1 plan
SaleJody D. CrookCHIEF COMMERCIAL OFFICER34,314 shares at $0.4600$15,784Nov 24, 202510b5-1 plan
SaleJohn Douglas SchickPresident and CEO, Director66,666 shares at $0.4600$30,666Nov 24, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−419.7% (2020) → −17.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 240 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−71.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−14.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)33.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)561.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.93× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.66× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA4.8× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 74
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PEDEVCO Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PED
Frequently asked questions
Is PEDEVCO Corp (PED) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.09 versus a price of $14.51, about 72% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PED?
Our model-based fair value for PEDEVCO Corp is $4.09 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.51.
What is the quality score of PED?
PEDEVCO Corp has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PEDEVCO Corp (PED)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.09 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.11, optimistic scenario $5.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PEDEVCO Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.09, about 72% lower versus a price of $14.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.11, optimistic scenario $5.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PEDEVCO Corp (PED)?
PEDEVCO Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $116M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of PEDEVCO Corp (PED)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PEDEVCO Corp it is $4.09 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $14.51. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is PEDEVCO Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, PED trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.51, fair value $4.09, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PED?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.09). For PEDEVCO Corp the two are $10.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PEDEVCO Corp worth?
The market values PEDEVCO Corp at about $193M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $14.51; our models calculate a fair value of $4.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PED?
Our models span a range for PEDEVCO Corp: cautious scenario $3.11, base $4.09, optimistic $5.07 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $14.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of PEDEVCO Corp (PED)?
Balance-sheet figures for PEDEVCO Corp (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −10.6%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PED from its 52-week high?
PEDEVCO Corp trades at $14.51, about 20% below its 52-week high of $18.18 and 59% above the low of $9.10 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PEDEVCO Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PEDEVCO Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $14.51, calculated fair value $4.09 (−72%), Quality Score 26/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PED calculated?
We run PEDEVCO Corp through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.09 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. PEDEVCO Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PEDEVCO Corp (PED)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was $14.51. Our model-based fair value is $4.09, about 72% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PEDEVCO Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of PEDEVCO Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of PEDEVCO Corp (PED)?
The market capitalisation of PEDEVCO Corp is $193M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PEDEVCO Corp (PED)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PEDEVCO Corp is 1.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PEDEVCO Corp (PED)?
Earnings per share at PEDEVCO Corp are $−2.62. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PEDEVCO Corp (PED)?
The net margin of PEDEVCO Corp is −14.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PEDEVCO Corp (PED)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PEDEVCO Corp is −10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PEDEVCO Corp (PED)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PEDEVCO Corp is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PEDEVCO Corp (PED)?
The operating margin of PEDEVCO Corp is 33.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PEDEVCO Corp (PED)?
Revenue at PEDEVCO Corp is growing +561% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PEDEVCO Corp (PED)?
Earnings per share at PEDEVCO Corp are growing −82.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does PEDEVCO Corp (PED) generate?
The free cash flow of PEDEVCO Corp is −$9.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does PEDEVCO Corp (PED) hold?
PEDEVCO Corp holds more cash than debt, $3.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 10, 2026
