CNOOC Ltd (0883) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what CNOOC Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$4.77 – HK$29.84 · fair‑value band HK$20.00 – HK$47.98 · the HK$23.68 price screens below the HK$26.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
CNOOC Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in worldwide. The company produces offshore crude oil and natural gas primarily in Bohai Sea, the Western South China Sea, the Eastern South China Sea, and the East China Sea in China.
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CNOOC Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in worldwide. The company produces offshore crude oil and natural gas primarily in Bohai Sea, the Western South China Sea, the Eastern South China Sea, and the East China Sea in China. It also holds interests in various oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, Oceania, and Europe. In addition, the company is involved in the sales and trading of petroleum and natural gas; oil sands exploration, development, and production; and exploration, development, and production of unconventional natural gas resources in onshore China, as well as in shale oil and gas activities. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hong Kong. CNOOC Limited operates as a subsidiary of CNOOC (BVI) LTD.
Stock analysis
CNOOC Ltd (0883) currently trades at HK$23.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$26.63, implying the stock looks roughly 11.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$40.62 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$23.68 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$12.08, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$20.00 (bear) to HK$47.98 (bull), the price of HK$23.68 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
CNOOC Ltd reported revenue of 386B CNY in FY2025 versus 246B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was 119B CNY in FY2025, compounding +14.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.1T (≈ $144B) · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 2.74 · EPS (TTM) HK$2.62 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 30.8% · Return on equity 15.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 12%, 0883 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$20.00Fair Value HK$26.63Bull HK$47.98
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$1.07 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.0%
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13% vs 19%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 44%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
0.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 303 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)31% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)45% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CNOOC Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0883
Frequently asked questions
Is CNOOC Ltd (0883) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$26.63 versus a price of HK$23.68, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0883?
Our model-based fair value for CNOOC Ltd is HK$26.63 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$23.68.
What is the quality score of 0883?
CNOOC Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$26.63 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$20.00, optimistic scenario HK$47.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CNOOC Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$26.63, about +12% upside versus a price of HK$23.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$20.00, optimistic scenario HK$47.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
CNOOC Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$407B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does CNOOC Ltd pay a dividend?
CNOOC Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.86% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CNOOC Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -6.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.0 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0883 use?
Our models discount CNOOC Ltd at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CNOOC Ltd that is -6.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CNOOC Ltd (0883) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CNOOC Ltd grew +20.0 % a year. The price currently implies -6.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CNOOC Ltd (0883) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CNOOC Ltd (-6.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.61 %: that much free cash flow CNOOC Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CNOOC Ltd it is HK$26.63 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of HK$23.68. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CNOOC Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, 0883 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$23.68, fair value HK$26.63, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0883?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$23.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$26.63). For CNOOC Ltd the two are HK$2.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CNOOC Ltd worth?
The market values CNOOC Ltd at about HK$1.1T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is HK$23.68; our models calculate a fair value of HK$26.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0883?
Our models span a range for CNOOC Ltd: cautious scenario HK$20.00, base HK$26.63, optimistic HK$47.98 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price HK$23.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0883?
CNOOC Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$26.63 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 1.4, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 4.3.
What is the PEG ratio of 0883?
The PEG ratio of CNOOC Ltd is 0.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
Balance-sheet figures for CNOOC Ltd (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 15.4%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0883 from its 52-week high?
CNOOC Ltd trades at HK$23.68, about 24% below its 52-week high of HK$30.98 and 40% above the low of HK$16.87 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$26.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CNOOC Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CNOOC Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price HK$23.68, calculated fair value HK$26.63 (+12%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0883 calculated?
We run CNOOC Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$26.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. CNOOC Ltd currently trades 12 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was HK$23.68. Our model-based fair value is HK$26.63, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CNOOC Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (HK$20.00 to HK$47.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of CNOOC Ltd (0883) come from?
Earnings per share at CNOOC Ltd grew +12.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.9 %, EBIT margin +8.0 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CNOOC Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
The market capitalisation of CNOOC Ltd is HK$1.1T (≈ $144B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CNOOC Ltd is 2.74 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
Earnings per share at CNOOC Ltd are HK$2.62 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
The dividend yield of CNOOC Ltd is 4.9% (payout 43.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
The net margin of CNOOC Ltd is 30.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CNOOC Ltd is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CNOOC Ltd is 16.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
The operating margin of CNOOC Ltd is 44.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
Revenue at CNOOC Ltd is growing +8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
Earnings per share at CNOOC Ltd are growing +6.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does CNOOC Ltd (0883) hold?
CNOOC Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$8.9B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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