CNOOC Limited (0883) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · HK · Market cap HK$1.1T
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from HK$34.17 to HK$26.35 (−22.9%) since Jul 6, 2026. Share price +7.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 16% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from HK$19.80 (bear) to HK$33.85 (bull), base HK$26.35. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 62/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$4.71 – HK$29.84 · fair‑value band HK$19.80 – HK$33.85 · the HK$22.70 price screens below the HK$26.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
CNOOC Limited (0883) currently trades at HK$22.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$26.35, implying the stock looks roughly 16.1% undervalued today. We read business quality at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, CNOOC Limited generated revenue of HK$407B at a net margin of 30.6%. Revenue grew 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$8.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$19.80 (bear case) to HK$33.85 (bull case); at HK$22.70, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 16%, 0883 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$46.25) versus Asset-Based (HK$12.08). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CNOOC Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in worldwide. The company produces offshore crude oil and natural gas primarily in Bohai Sea, the Western South China Sea, the Eastern South China Sea, and the East China Sea in China.
Full company description
CNOOC Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in worldwide. The company produces offshore crude oil and natural gas primarily in Bohai Sea, the Western South China Sea, the Eastern South China Sea, and the East China Sea in China. It also holds interests in various oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, Oceania, and Europe. In addition, the company is involved in the sales and trading of petroleum and natural gas; oil sands exploration, development, and production; and exploration, development, and production of unconventional natural gas resources in onshore China, as well as in shale oil and gas activities. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hong Kong. CNOOC Limited operates as a subsidiary of CNOOC (BVI) LTD.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CNOOC Limited reported revenue of HK$386B in FY2025 versus HK$246B in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$119B in FY2025, compounding +14.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 316 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
| Expand Energy Corporation EXE | $87.81 | $106.45 | +21% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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