Woodside Energy Group (WDS) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $37.6B
Woodside Energy Group
WDS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Share price +14.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 12% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from $15.01 (bear) to $25.02 (bull), base $20.02. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 54/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.56 – $24.78 · fair‑value band $15.01 – $25.02 · the $22.70 price screens above the $20.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Woodside Energy Group (WDS) currently trades at $22.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.02, implying the stock looks roughly 11.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Woodside Energy Group generated revenue of $13.0B at a net margin of 20.9%. Revenue declined 11.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.2%. Net debt stands at $8.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $15.01 (bear case) to $25.02 (bull case); at $22.70, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -12%, WDS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($64.48) versus Asset-Based ($12.66). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Woodside Energy Group Ltd engages in the exploration, evaluation, development, production, marketing, and sale of hydrocarbons in the Asia Pacific, Africa, the Americas, and the Europe. It produces liquefied natural gas, pipeline gas, crude oil and condensate, and natural gas liquids.
Full company description
Woodside Energy Group Ltd engages in the exploration, evaluation, development, production, marketing, and sale of hydrocarbons in the Asia Pacific, Africa, the Americas, and the Europe. It produces liquefied natural gas, pipeline gas, crude oil and condensate, and natural gas liquids. The company holds interests in the Pluto LNG, North West Shelf, Wheatstone and Julimar-Brunello, Bass Strait, Ngujima-Yin FPSO, Okha FPSO, Pyrenees FPSO, Macedon, Shenzi, Mad dog, Greater Angostura, as well as Scarborough, Sangomar, Trion, Calypso, Browse, Liard, Ruby, Sangomar, Atlantis, Woodside Solar opportunity, and Sunrise and Troubadour. It is also involved in the development of new energy products and lower-carbon services. The company was formerly known as Woodside Petroleum Ltd and changed its name to Woodside Energy Group Ltd in May 2022. Woodside Energy Group Ltd was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Woodside Energy Group reported revenue of $13.0B in FY2025 versus $7.0B in FY2021, a compound +16.9%/yr. Reported net income was $2.7B in FY2025, compounding +8.2%/yr from FY2021.
WDS screens 12% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Woodside’s Q2 2026 operating revenue jumps 28% to $4.2bn
- Woodside Energy Q2 Revenues Climb On Prices; Lifts FY26 Production View
- Woodside Energy Group reports Q2 results; updates FY2026 outlook
- Woodside Energy Second Quarter Report for Period Ended 30 June 2026
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 316 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
| Expand Energy Corporation EXE | $87.81 | $106.45 | +21% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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