Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Woodside Energy Group Ltd stock $19.39, price $21.51, that is 9.9% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.33 – $24.19 · fair‑value band $13.73 – $25.02 · the $21.51 price screens above the $19.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Woodside Energy Group Ltd engages in the exploration, evaluation, development, production, marketing, and sale of hydrocarbons in the Asia Pacific, Africa, the Americas, and the Europe. It produces liquefied natural gas, pipeline gas, crude oil and condensate, and natural gas liquids.
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The company holds interests in the Pluto LNG, North West Shelf, Wheatstone and Julimar-Brunello, Bass Strait, Ngujima-Yin FPSO, Okha FPSO, Pyrenees FPSO, Macedon, Shenzi, Mad dog, Greater Angostura, as well as Scarborough, Sangomar, Trion, Calypso, Browse, Liard, Ruby, Sangomar, Atlantis, Woodside Solar opportunity, and Sunrise and Troubadour.
It is also involved in the development of new energy products and lower-carbon services. The company was formerly known as Woodside Petroleum Ltd and changed its name to Woodside Energy Group Ltd in May 2022. Woodside Energy Group Ltd was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) currently trades at $21.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.39, 10% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $19.62 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the $21.51 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.95, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $13.73 (bear) to $25.02 (bull), the price of $21.51 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Woodside Energy Group Ltd reported revenue of $13.0B in FY2025 versus $7.0B in FY2021, a compound +16.9%/yr. Reported net income was $2.7B in FY2025, compounding +8.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $41.2B Large · P/E ratio 13.7 · P/S ratio 2.98 · EPS (TTM) $1.60 · Dividend yield 5.4% · Net margin 22.2% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at −10%, WDS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.73Fair Value $19.39Bull$25.02
Price $21.51 · Downside -9.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3737 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleMark Anthony AbbotsfordOfficer2× since Mar 23, 2026: 22,500 shares, avg. $23.79$535,350Mar 26, 2026
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.9% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.4% vs 3.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 30%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Commodity E&P operations show limited durable advantage with weak pricing power and cash conversion as the core weakness, even as stronger prices lift profits.
Main risk: Ongoing lawsuits from groups like Greenpeace and regulatory scrutiny over emissions could delay or block key projects such as Scarborough and Browse, hitting development timelines and margins.
Bull case: Woodside could secure faster approvals through stronger emissions management and position its LNG as reliable backup power for AI data centers to sustain demand.
Bear case: Persistent legal blocks and cheaper global supply could strand high-cost assets, forcing project cancellations and eroding the core oil and gas production base.
Woodside has abandoned its five billion dollar clean energy investment target by 2030 along with its Scope 3 emissions goal to redirect spending toward core oil and gas developments. Stronger realized prices lifted first-half profits seven percent even with softer production volumes. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Does doubling down on traditional assets better position the business for energy security needs or leave it more exposed if demand shifts faster than expected?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−9.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.7% · Above median
Return on assets4.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)22.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)23.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Woodside Energy Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WDS
Frequently asked questions
Is Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.39 versus a price of $21.51, about 10% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WDS?
Our model-based fair value for Woodside Energy Group Ltd is $19.39 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.51.
What is the quality score of WDS?
Woodside Energy Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.39 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.73, optimistic scenario $25.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Woodside Energy Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.39, about 10% lower versus a price of $21.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.73, optimistic scenario $25.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)?
Woodside Energy Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Woodside Energy Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Woodside Energy Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 5.39% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Woodside Energy Group Ltd it is $19.39 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $21.51. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Woodside Energy Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, WDS trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.51, fair value $19.39, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WDS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.39). For Woodside Energy Group Ltd the two are $2.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Woodside Energy Group Ltd worth?
The market values Woodside Energy Group Ltd at about $41.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $21.51; our models calculate a fair value of $19.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WDS?
Our models span a range for Woodside Energy Group Ltd: cautious scenario $13.73, base $19.39, optimistic $25.02 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $21.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WDS?
Woodside Energy Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.7 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 1.2, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 5.8.
What is the PEG ratio of WDS?
The PEG ratio of Woodside Energy Group Ltd is 1.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Woodside Energy Group Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WDS from its 52-week high?
Woodside Energy Group Ltd trades at $21.51, about 11% below its 52-week high of $24.19 and 55% above the low of $13.85 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Woodside Energy Group Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Woodside Energy Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $21.51, calculated fair value $19.39 (−10%), Quality Score 53/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WDS calculated?
We run Woodside Energy Group Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0% above its aggregate fair value. Woodside Energy Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $21.51. Our model-based fair value is $19.39, about 10% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Woodside Energy Group Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range ($13.73 to $25.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) come from?
Earnings per share at Woodside Energy Group Ltd grew +0.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.5 %, EBIT margin −2.2 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Woodside Energy Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)?
The market capitalisation of Woodside Energy Group Ltd is $41.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Woodside Energy Group Ltd is 2.98 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)?
Earnings per share at Woodside Energy Group Ltd are $1.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)?
The dividend yield of Woodside Energy Group Ltd is 5.4% (payout 72.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)?
The net margin of Woodside Energy Group Ltd is 22.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Woodside Energy Group Ltd is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Woodside Energy Group Ltd is 10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)?
The operating margin of Woodside Energy Group Ltd is 23.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)?
Revenue at Woodside Energy Group Ltd is growing +13.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)?
Earnings per share at Woodside Energy Group Ltd are growing +26.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) generate?
The free cash flow of Woodside Energy Group Ltd is −$782M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) carry?
The net debt of Woodside Energy Group Ltd is $8.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 5, 2026