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Data-driven stock valuation

Septerna, Inc. (SEPN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Septerna, Inc. stock $31.07, price $48.85, that is 36.4% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Healthcare US

SI Septerna, Inc. logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

Septerna, Inc.

SEPN · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 36% below what the stock costs today.

Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (6/10)
Quality 56/100
Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +4174.5 %/yr in USD)
Insiders sold $66.5M (6M)
Fair value $31.07 · Strongly overvalued
Loss-making · -24.5% net margin (TTM)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$48.85 $5.02 Fair Value $31.07 Oct 2024 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

24‑month range $5.02 – $48.85 · fair‑value band $20.99 – $33.93 · the $48.85 price screens above the $31.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Septerna, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, discovers and develops G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) oral small molecule products for the treatment of endocrinology, immunology and inflammation, and metabolic diseases.

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It develops PTH1R Program, oral small molecule Parathyroid Hormone 1 Receptor agonists for the treatment of hypoparathyroidism; SEP-631, an oral small molecule MRGPRX2 negative allosteric modulator (NAM) for chronic spontaneous urticaria and other mast cell diseases; and TSHR Program, an oral small molecule TSHR NAM for graves' disease and thyroid eye disease.

In addition, it focuses on other therapeutic areas, including neurology, women's health, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease.

It has global collaboration and license agreement with Novo Nordisk to discover, develop and commercialize multiple potential oral small molecule therapies for metabolic-related diseases based on certain specified molecular targets.

The company was formerly known as GPCR NewCo, Inc. and changed its name to Septerna Inc. in June 2021. Septerna, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

Stock analysis

Septerna, Inc. (SEPN) currently trades at $48.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.07, 36% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $47.57 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $48.85 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.21, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $20.99 (bear) to $33.93 (bull), the price of $48.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Septerna, Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $46.0M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −$48.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.2B Mid · P/S ratio 17.1 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5400 · Net margin −24.5% · Return on equity −6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −26.8% (4-year average) · Operating margin −63.0% · Revenue (TTM) $98.9M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 170% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −36%, SEPN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $20.99 Fair Value $31.07 Bull $33.93
Price $48.85 · Downside -36.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF $33.87 $47.93 $89.78 72
Growth DCF $31.88 $47.57 $79.23 71
5Y Revenue Exit $14.31 $17.64 $24.17 68
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $33.87 $47.93 $89.78 72
5Y Revenue Exit $14.31 $17.64 $24.17 68
10Y Revenue Exit $20.99 $31.07 $33.93 63
Multiples
EV/Revenue $4.15 $5.03 $5.92 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.78 $4.21 $5.27 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $31.88 $47.57 $79.23 71

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 3
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 88
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 100
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 92
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 50
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 94
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 100
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 31
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $66.5M and none bought.

  • SaleElizabeth BhattPresident and COO5× since Feb 18, 2026: 41,000 shares, avg. $39.00$1.6MOct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleDaniel D. LongSVP, Drug Discovery5× since Nov 10, 2025: 28,501 shares, avg. $33.38$951,359Sep 1, 2026
  • SaleRajeev M. ShahDirector, 10% owner1,493,000 shares at $42.50$63.5MAug 12, 2026
  • SaleSamira ShaikhlyChief People Officer5× since Mar 2, 2026: 96,614 shares, avg. $29.00$2.8MJun 29, 202610b5-1 plan

Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.0% a year for the price and −4.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+109.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−23.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)−20.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)−17.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)−13.9%

SEPN screens overvalued: fair value 36% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 558 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −36.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −8.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) −24.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) −63.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 223.8% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 5.76× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 22.25× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 20.1× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 22

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Incyte Corporation INCY $119.65 $199.23 +67% vs SEPN
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $904.35 $1,275 +41% vs SEPN
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $547.09 $601.80 +10% vs SEPN
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,516,000 KRW 1,667,600 KRW +10% vs SEPN
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,527 kr 3,880 +10% vs SEPN
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$47.62 HK$52.38 +10% vs SEPN
argenx SE ARGX $927.21 $908.40 −2% vs SEPN
CSL Limited CSL A$200.77 A$183.04 −9% vs SEPN
Celltrion, Inc 068270 211,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −64% vs SEPN
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $67.30 $19.01 −72% vs SEPN

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Septerna, Inc. Common Stock: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Septerna, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SEPN

Frequently asked questions

Is Septerna, Inc. (SEPN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $31.07 versus a price of $48.85, about 36% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SEPN?
Our model-based fair value for Septerna, Inc. is $31.07 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $48.85.
What is the quality score of SEPN?
Septerna, Inc. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $31.07 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.99, optimistic scenario $33.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Septerna, Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $31.07, about 36% lower versus a price of $48.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.99, optimistic scenario $33.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)?
Septerna, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $98.9M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Septerna, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 2 years revenue grew +1644.5 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SEPN use?
Our models discount Septerna, Inc. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Septerna, Inc. that is +9.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Septerna, Inc. (SEPN) delivered so far?
Over the past 2 years revenue at Septerna, Inc. grew +1644.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Septerna, Inc. (SEPN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Septerna, Inc. (+9.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.98 %: that much free cash flow Septerna, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Septerna, Inc. it is $31.07 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $48.85. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Septerna, Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, SEPN trades above its calculated fair value: price $48.85, fair value $31.07, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SEPN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($48.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($31.07). For Septerna, Inc. the two are $17.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Septerna, Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Septerna, Inc. at about $2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $48.85; our models calculate a fair value of $31.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SEPN?
Our models span a range for Septerna, Inc.: cautious scenario $20.99, base $31.07, optimistic $33.93 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $48.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Septerna, Inc. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −6.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SEPN from its 52-week high?
Septerna, Inc. trades at $48.85, at its 52-week high of $48.85 and 170% above the low of $18.10 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $31.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Septerna, Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Septerna, Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $48.85, calculated fair value $31.07 (−36%), Quality Score 56/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SEPN calculated?
We run Septerna, Inc. through 6 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $31.07 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Septerna, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $48.85. Our model-based fair value is $31.07, about 36% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Septerna, Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($33.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Septerna, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)?
The market capitalisation of Septerna, Inc. is $2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Septerna, Inc. is 17.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)?
Earnings per share at Septerna, Inc. are $−0.5400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)?
The net margin of Septerna, Inc. is −24.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Septerna, Inc. is −6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Septerna, Inc. is −26.8% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)?
The operating margin of Septerna, Inc. is −63.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)?
Revenue at Septerna, Inc. is growing +224% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Septerna, Inc. (SEPN) hold?
Septerna, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $97.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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