Suncor Energy Inc (SU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Suncor Energy Inc stock $70.17, price $79.42, that is 11.6% below the price, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.05 – $79.48 · fair‑value band $52.63 – $90.81 · the $79.42 price screens above the $70.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Suncor Energy Inc. operates as an integrated energy company in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Oil Sands; Exploration and Production; and Refining and Marketing segments.
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The Oil Sands segment produces bitumen; and markets, supplies, and transports and manages crude oil, power, and byproducts.
The Exploration and Production segment is involved in the offshore operations on the east coast of Canada, and onshore assets in Libya and Syria; and marketing and risk management of crude oil.
The Refining and Marketing segment refines and supplies crude oil and intermediate feedstock into a range of petroleum and petrochemical products, as well as sells refined petroleum products to retail customers.
This segment is also involved in the trading of crude oil and refined products, natural gas, and power. The company was formerly known as Suncor Inc. and changed its name to Suncor Energy Inc. in April 1997. Suncor Energy Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Suncor Energy Inc (SU) currently trades at $79.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $70.17, 11.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $92.72 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the $79.42 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $23.31, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $52.63 (bear) to $90.81 (bull), the price of $79.42 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Suncor Energy Inc reported revenue of $48.9B in FY2025 versus $39.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was $5.9B in FY2025, compounding +9.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $93.6B Large · P/E ratio 14.7 · P/S ratio 1.77 · EPS (TTM) $5.42 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 12.1% · Return on equity 19.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 107% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −12%, SU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$52.63Fair Value $70.17Bull$90.81
Price $79.42 · Downside -11.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.57 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.3% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.0% vs 16.5%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 32%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.4% a year for the price and −2.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Focused integrated oil sands and downstream refining operations form the main strength, while limited durable moat from commodity exposure and few unique signals remains the core weakness.
Main risk: Ongoing climate tort suits could impose substantial liabilities on the company for alleged contributions to climate change, raising its cost of capital and constraining investment in core oil sands assets.
Bull case: Suncor could prevail in key climate litigation, successfully manage its remaining decommissioning obligations through focused oil sands efficiency gains, and maintain stable cash flows for shareholder returns.
Bear case: Adverse rulings in climate suits or stricter enforcement of decommissioning and environmental rules could sharply increase liabilities and compliance costs, forcing reduced production or delayed projects in the oil sands core.
Suncor is divesting non-core offshore assets to sharpen focus on its integrated oil sands operations and downstream refining strengths. The move pairs with expanded share repurchases, yet our models still see the stock as overvalued. Will the benefits of a streamlined portfolio and operational discipline deliver enough durable free cash flow to close that gap?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 42 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−11.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.3% · Above median
Return on assets6.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)15.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)29.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)45.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Suncor Energy Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SU
Frequently asked questions
Is Suncor Energy Inc (SU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $70.17 versus a price of $79.42, about 12% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SU?
Our model-based fair value for Suncor Energy Inc is $70.17 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $79.42.
What is the quality score of SU?
Suncor Energy Inc has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $70.17 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $52.63, optimistic scenario $90.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Suncor Energy Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $70.17, about 12% lower versus a price of $79.42 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $52.63, optimistic scenario $90.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
Suncor Energy Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $56.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Suncor Energy Inc pay a dividend?
Suncor Energy Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.98% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Suncor Energy Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -0.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.7 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SU use?
Our models discount Suncor Energy Inc at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Suncor Energy Inc that is -0.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Suncor Energy Inc (SU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Suncor Energy Inc grew +14.7 % a year. The price currently implies -0.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Suncor Energy Inc (SU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +13.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Suncor Energy Inc (-0.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.39 %: that much free cash flow Suncor Energy Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Suncor Energy Inc it is $70.17 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $79.42. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Suncor Energy Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, SU trades above its calculated fair value: price $79.42, fair value $70.17, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SU?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($79.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($70.17). For Suncor Energy Inc the two are $9.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Suncor Energy Inc worth?
The market values Suncor Energy Inc at about $93.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $79.42; our models calculate a fair value of $70.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SU?
Our models span a range for Suncor Energy Inc: cautious scenario $52.63, base $70.17, optimistic $90.81 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $79.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SU?
Suncor Energy Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $70.17 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 11.4, P/B 2.1, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 5.1.
What is the PEG ratio of SU?
The PEG ratio of Suncor Energy Inc is 11.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Suncor Energy Inc (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 19.3%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SU from its 52-week high?
Suncor Energy Inc trades at $79.42, at its 52-week high of $79.48 and 107% above the low of $38.32 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $70.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Suncor Energy Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Suncor Energy Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $79.42, calculated fair value $70.17 (−12%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SU calculated?
We run Suncor Energy Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $70.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Suncor Energy Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $79.42. Our model-based fair value is $70.17, about 12% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Suncor Energy Inc right now?
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Suncor Energy Inc (SU) come from?
Earnings per share at Suncor Energy Inc grew +20.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.8 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate +3.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Suncor Energy Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
The market capitalisation of Suncor Energy Inc is $93.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Suncor Energy Inc is 1.77 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
Earnings per share at Suncor Energy Inc are $5.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
The dividend yield of Suncor Energy Inc is 3.0% (payout 43.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
The net margin of Suncor Energy Inc is 12.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Suncor Energy Inc is 19.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Suncor Energy Inc is 19.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
The operating margin of Suncor Energy Inc is 29.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
Revenue at Suncor Energy Inc is growing +45.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Suncor Energy Inc (SU)?
Earnings per share at Suncor Energy Inc are growing +242% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Suncor Energy Inc (SU) carry?
The net debt of Suncor Energy Inc is $14.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026