Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $50.8B
Cenovus Energy Inc
CVE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price +12.1% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($22.11 to $43.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.52 – $31.62 · fair‑value band $22.11 – $43.41 · the $28.25 price screens below the $29.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE) currently trades at $28.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.48, implying the stock looks roughly 4.4% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Cenovus Energy Inc generated revenue of $48.8B at a net margin of 9.5%. Revenue declined 7.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.8%. Net debt stands at $14.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $22.11 (bear case) to $43.41 (bull case); at $28.25, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 124% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 4%, CVE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($42.09) versus Asset-Based ($11.35). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Cenovus Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, refines, transports, and markets crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products in Canada, the United States, and China. It operates through Upstream and Downstream segments.
Full company description
Cenovus Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, refines, transports, and markets crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products in Canada, the United States, and China. It operates through Upstream and Downstream segments. The company is involved in the development and production of bitumen and heavy oil; owns and operates pipeline gathering systems and terminals; operation of assets rich in NGLs and natural gas in Alberta and British Columbia; and offshore operations, exploration, and development activities in the East Coast of Canada and the Asia Pacific region. It also engages in refining, such as owned and operated Lloydminster upgrading and asphalt refining complex; owns and operates the Bruderheim crude-by-rail terminal and two ethanol plants; fuels business; and refining of crude oil to produce gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, asphalt, and other products. Cenovus Energy Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cenovus Energy Inc reported revenue of $49.7B in FY2025 versus $48.8B in FY2021, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was $3.9B in FY2025, compounding +60.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Cenovus Energy (TSX:CVE) Earnings Strength Keeps Undervalued Narrative In Play
- Cenovus Energy (TSX:CVE) CEO Sees New West Coast Pipelines Fueling Oil Growth
- CVE Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Production Growth
- CVE Q2 Earnings Increase Y/Y on Higher Pricing & Oil Sands Volumes
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 26.72 SAR | 20.14 SAR | -25% |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $144.51 | $90.37 | -37% |
| Chevron Corporation CHEV | C$22.88 | C$7.97 | -65% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥10.29 | ¥16.51 | +60% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €38.04 | €46.09 | +21% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$13.80 | C$7.92 | -43% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 | 12,540 ARS | 30,914 ARS | +147% |
| BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP | $40.83 | $12.71 | -69% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.03 | ¥4.46 | -11% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | $36.19 | $34.53 | -5% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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