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Victory Metals Ltd (VTM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Victory Metals Ltd stock A$0.59, price A$1.25, that is 52.6% below the price, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU0000252645

VM Victory Metals Ltd logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Victory Metals Ltd

VTM · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 53% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +146.1 %/yr in AUD)
Revenue last quarter 16% below a year ago.
Fair value A$0.5900 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 32/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/7)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$1.88 A$0.1000 Fair Value A$0.5900 Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.1000 – A$1.88 · fair‑value band A$0.4400 – A$0.7400 · the A$1.25 price screens above the A$0.5900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Victory Metals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia. The company explores for rare earth elements and gold deposits.

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Its flagship project is the North Stanmore heavy rare earth elements, scandium, hafnium, and gallium project located on the north of Cue Region, Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Victory Goldfields Limited and changed its name to Victory Metals Limited in November 2022.

Victory Metals Limited is based in Subiaco, Australia.

Stock analysis

Victory Metals Ltd (VTM) currently trades at A$1.25, while our estimate is A$0.5900, 53% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: A$0.4400 (bear) to A$0.7400 (bull), the price of A$1.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Victory Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$140K in FY2024 versus A$0 in FY2020. Reported net income was −A$5.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$164M (≈ $113M) Micro · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0500 · Return on equity −25.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −33.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 780% · Revenue (TTM) A$405K · Revenue growth (YoY) −15.5% · Free cash flow −A$1.2M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −53%, VTM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear A$0.4400 Fair Value A$0.5900 Bull A$0.7400
Price A$1.25 · Downside -52.6%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 100
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 14
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 30
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 35
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 18
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+146.1%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−38.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
25.2% (2012) → −2,154.2% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

VTM screens overvalued: fair value 53% below the price. Compare with BHP Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 577 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Below median
Fair Value upside −52.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −19.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −15.5% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 6.60× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 4
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 33

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹262.00 ₹334.17 +28% vs VTM
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 57.00 SAR 64.24 SAR +13% vs VTM
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥28.25 ¥30.98 +10% vs VTM
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹575.95 ₹624.91 +9% vs VTM
Boliden AB BOL kr 515.20 kr 464.45 −10% vs VTM
BHP Group BHP A$60.39 A$47.47 −21% vs VTM
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥32.69 ¥25.57 −22% vs VTM
Korea Zinc Company 010130 967,000 KRW 649,125 KRW −33% vs VTM
CMOC Group 603993 ¥13.71 ¥6.82 −50% vs VTM
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥40.90 ¥4.44 −89% vs VTM

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Victory Metals Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Victory Metals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VTM

Frequently asked questions

Is Victory Metals Ltd (VTM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is A$0.5900 versus a price of A$1.25, about 53% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VTM?
Our estimate for Victory Metals Ltd is A$0.5900 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.25.
What is the quality score of VTM?
Victory Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Victory Metals Ltd (VTM)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of A$0.5900 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario A$0.4400, optimistic scenario A$0.7400. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Victory Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at A$0.5900, about 53% lower versus a price of A$1.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.4400, optimistic scenario A$0.7400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Victory Metals Ltd (VTM)?
Victory Metals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$405K (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Victory Metals Ltd (VTM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Victory Metals Ltd it is A$0.5900 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of A$1.25.
Is Victory Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, VTM trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.25, fair value A$0.5900, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VTM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.5900). For Victory Metals Ltd the two are A$0.6550 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Victory Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Victory Metals Ltd at about A$164M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is A$1.25; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.5900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VTM?
Our models span a range for Victory Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.4400, base A$0.5900, optimistic A$0.7400 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price A$1.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Victory Metals Ltd (VTM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Victory Metals Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −25.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VTM from its 52-week high?
Victory Metals Ltd trades at A$1.25, about 34% below its 52-week high of A$1.88 and 16% above the low of A$1.07 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.5900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Victory Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Victory Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price A$1.25, calculated fair value A$0.5900 (−53%), Quality Score 32/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Victory Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Victory Metals Ltd (VTM)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was A$1.25. Our estimate is A$0.5900, about 53% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Victory Metals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.7400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Victory Metals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Victory Metals Ltd (VTM)?
The market capitalisation of Victory Metals Ltd is A$164M (≈ $113M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Victory Metals Ltd (VTM)?
Earnings per share at Victory Metals Ltd are A$−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Victory Metals Ltd (VTM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Victory Metals Ltd is −25.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Victory Metals Ltd (VTM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Victory Metals Ltd is −33.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Victory Metals Ltd (VTM)?
The operating margin of Victory Metals Ltd is 780% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Victory Metals Ltd (VTM)?
Revenue at Victory Metals Ltd is growing −15.5% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Victory Metals Ltd (VTM) generate?
The free cash flow of Victory Metals Ltd is −A$1.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Victory Metals Ltd (VTM) hold?
Victory Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$11.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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