Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Indorama Ventures PCL THB 23.45, price THB 29.25, upside -19.8%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 14.59 THB – 44.88 THB · fair‑value band 7.27 THB – 42.14 THB · the 29.25 THB price screens above the 23.45 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes petrochemical products in Thailand, the United States, Brazil, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Combined PET, Indovida, Indovinya, and Fibers.
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Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes petrochemical products in Thailand, the United States, Brazil, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Combined PET, Indovida, Indovinya, and Fibers. The Combined PET segment manufactures and distributes polyethylene terephthalate (PET) value chain comprising paraxylene, purified terephthalic acid, PET, and recycling; and specialty PET-related chemicals, such as purified isophthalic acid and naphthalene dicarboxylate. The Indovida segment manufactures and distributes packaging. The Indovinya segment offers specialty chemical solutions including home and personal care, crop solutions, coatings, and energy and resources; supply ethylene oxide to the Combined PET business; and manufactures and distributes integrated downstream surfactants. The Fibers segment offers polyester, rayon, nylon, polypropylene, composites, and worsted wool fibers for the home, apparel, hygiene and medical, automotive, and industrial/technical markets. The company was formerly known as Beacon Global Limited and changed its name to Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited in March 2009. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand. Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited is a subsidiary of Indorama Resources Ltd.
Stock analysis
Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL) currently trades at 29.25 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 23.45 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 24.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 25.47 THB per share, and 3 of the 13 models we run sit above the 29.25 THB price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 7.64 THB, and 10 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 7.27 THB (bear) to 42.14 THB (bull), the price of 29.25 THB sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Indorama Ventures PCL reported revenue of 447B THB in FY2025 versus 468B THB in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was −7.3B THB in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 164B THB (≈ $4.9B) · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) −1.74 THB · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin −1.6% · Return on equity −5.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% · Operating margin 0.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 100% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −20%, IVL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 7.27 THBFair Value 23.45 THBBull 42.14 THB
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.7% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.1% (2020) → −0.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.6% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 350 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−20% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.90× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
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Is Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 23.45 THB versus a price of 29.25 THB, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IVL?
Our model-based fair value for Indorama Ventures PCL is 23.45 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 29.25 THB.
What is the quality score of IVL?
Indorama Ventures PCL has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 23.45 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 7.27 THB, optimistic scenario 42.14 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Indorama Ventures PCL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 23.45 THB, about −20% upside versus a price of 29.25 THB (overvalued). Cautious scenario 7.27 THB, optimistic scenario 42.14 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
Indorama Ventures PCL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 442B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Indorama Ventures PCL pay a dividend?
Indorama Ventures PCL currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.79% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Indorama Ventures PCL would have to grow free cash flow by +15.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IVL use?
Our models discount Indorama Ventures PCL at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Indorama Ventures PCL that is +15.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Indorama Ventures PCL grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies +15.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Indorama Ventures PCL (+15.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.84 %: that much free cash flow Indorama Ventures PCL produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Indorama Ventures PCL it is 23.45 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 29.25 THB. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Indorama Ventures PCL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, IVL trades above its calculated fair value: price 29.25 THB, fair value 23.45 THB, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IVL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (29.25 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (23.45 THB). For Indorama Ventures PCL the two are 5.80 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Indorama Ventures PCL worth?
The market values Indorama Ventures PCL at about 164B THB (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 29.25 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 23.45 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IVL?
Our models span a range for Indorama Ventures PCL: cautious scenario 7.27 THB, base 23.45 THB, optimistic 42.14 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 29.25 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of IVL?
The PEG ratio of Indorama Ventures PCL is 1.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Indorama Ventures PCL (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −5.9%, debt of 1.90 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IVL from its 52-week high?
Indorama Ventures PCL trades at 29.25 THB, about 3% below its 52-week high of 30.00 THB and 100% above the low of 14.59 THB (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 23.45 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Indorama Ventures PCL?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Indorama Ventures PCL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 29.25 THB, calculated fair value 23.45 THB (−20%), Quality Score 41/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IVL calculated?
We run Indorama Ventures PCL through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 23.45 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Indorama Ventures PCL itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 29.25 THB. Our model-based fair value is 23.45 THB, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Indorama Ventures PCL right now?
Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (7.27 THB to 42.14 THB). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Indorama Ventures PCL
How large is the market capitalisation of Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
The market capitalisation of Indorama Ventures PCL is 164B THB (≈ $4.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Indorama Ventures PCL is 0.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
Earnings per share at Indorama Ventures PCL are −1.74 THB. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
The dividend yield of Indorama Ventures PCL is 1.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
The net margin of Indorama Ventures PCL is −1.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Indorama Ventures PCL is −5.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Indorama Ventures PCL is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
The operating margin of Indorama Ventures PCL is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
Revenue at Indorama Ventures PCL is growing −7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL)?
Earnings per share at Indorama Ventures PCL are growing +170% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL) carry?
The net debt of Indorama Ventures PCL is 252B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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