XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 12, 2026: fair value of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd ¥9.74, price ¥7.37, upside +32.2%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.97 – ¥12.36 · fair‑value band ¥6.83 – ¥12.67 · the ¥7.37 price screens below the ¥9.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
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XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and sale of construction machinery in China.
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XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and sale of construction machinery in China. The company offers hoisting machinery, excavators, loaders, road machinery, piling machinery, non-excavation machinery, concrete machinery, special vehicles, aerial working equipment, sanitation machinery, fire-fighting machinery, tunnel machinery, resource exploration machinery, and port machinery. It also exports its products. The company was founded in 1943 and is based in Xuzhou, China.
Stock analysis
XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425) currently trades at ¥7.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.74, implying the stock looks roughly 24.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥21.88 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥7.37 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.46, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥6.83 (bear) to ¥12.67 (bull), the price of ¥7.37 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd reported revenue of 101B CNY in FY2025 versus 117B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.6%/yr. Reported net income was 6.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding −5.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 86.6B CNY (≈ $12.9B) · P/E ratio 13.4 · P/S ratio 0.87 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.5500 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 6.5% · Return on equity 9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 32%, 000425 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥6.83Fair Value ¥9.74Bull ¥12.67
Price ¥7.37 · Upside +32.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2390 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income¥4.64¥5.29¥7.1776
FCF DCF¥15.42¥26.13¥55.0975
EPV¥8.31¥9.50¥10.5474
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥15.42¥26.13¥55.0975
Owner Earnings¥11.35¥23.33¥47.6371
5Y Revenue Exit¥10.88¥18.69¥31.4770
5Y EBITDA Exit¥13.41¥24.30¥41.1273
5Y P/E Exit¥11.38¥20.48¥31.7569
10Y Revenue Exit¥11.91¥20.97¥33.5165
10Y EBITDA Exit¥13.97¥25.56¥45.6765
10Y P/E Exit¥12.55¥21.88¥36.8962
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥3.82¥24.90¥34.8463
Lynch FV¥7.24¥10.35¥13.4561
PEG = 1.0¥7.24¥10.35¥13.4557
EPV¥8.31¥9.50¥10.5474
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥8.84¥11.79¥14.7363
P/S Multiple¥7.16¥9.54¥11.9358
P/B Multiple¥7.16¥9.54¥11.9355
EV/EBIT¥11.79¥15.33¥18.8766
EV/EBITDA¥12.97¥16.90¥20.8367
EV/Revenue¥8.75¥12.00¥15.2554
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥2.58¥3.46¥5.1654
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥14.87¥28.92¥54.8574
Rev-Margin DCF¥10.88¥18.99¥30.7571
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥4.64¥5.29¥7.1776
ROIC Compounder¥9.94¥14.03¥19.1571
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥10.17¥14.52¥18.8867
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.7% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.3% vs 34.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.1% a year for the price and +10.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (85 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+32.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.8% · Above median
Return on assets3.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5.8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)10.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000425
Frequently asked questions
Is XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥9.74 versus a price of ¥7.37, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000425?
Our model-based fair value for XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd is ¥9.74 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥7.37.
What is the quality score of 000425?
XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥9.74 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥6.83, optimistic scenario ¥12.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥9.74, about +32% upside versus a price of ¥7.37 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥6.83, optimistic scenario ¥12.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 107B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).
Does XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd pay a dividend?
XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.32% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -5.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000425 use?
Our models discount XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd that is -5.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies -5.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (-5.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.55 %: that much free cash flow XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd it is ¥9.74 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of ¥7.37. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, 000425 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥7.37, fair value ¥9.74, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000425?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥7.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥9.74). For XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd the two are ¥2.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd worth?
The market values XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd at about 86.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥7.37; our models calculate a fair value of ¥9.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000425?
Our models span a range for XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥6.83, base ¥9.74, optimistic ¥12.67 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price ¥7.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000425?
XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥9.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 6.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 000425?
The PEG ratio of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd is 1.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
Balance-sheet figures for XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 9.8%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000425 from its 52-week high?
XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd trades at ¥7.37, about 40% below its 52-week high of ¥12.36 and 5% above the low of ¥7.05 (as of Oct 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥9.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price ¥7.37, calculated fair value ¥9.74 (+32%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000425 calculated?
We run XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥9.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.8 % above its aggregate fair value. XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
The closing price on Oct 12, 2026 was ¥7.37. Our model-based fair value is ¥9.74, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd right now?
Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (¥6.83 to ¥12.67) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425) come from?
Earnings per share at XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd grew +12.7 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.5 %, EBIT margin +4.1 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
The market capitalisation of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd is 86.6B CNY (≈ $12.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
The price-to-sales ratio of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd is 0.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
Earnings per share at XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd are ¥0.5500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
The dividend yield of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd is 3.3% (payout 44.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
The net margin of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd is 6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
The operating margin of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
Revenue at XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd is growing +14.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
Earnings per share at XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd are growing −11.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425) carry?
The net debt of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd is 9.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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