XCMG Construction Machinery Co (000425) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 96.3B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from ¥11.79 to ¥7.91 (−32.9%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −4.1% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from ¥5.93 (bear) to ¥9.88 (bull), base ¥7.91. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 54/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.97 – ¥12.36 · fair‑value band ¥5.93 – ¥9.88 · the ¥8.42 price screens above the ¥7.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
XCMG Construction Machinery Co (000425) currently trades at ¥8.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.91, implying the stock looks roughly 6.1% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, XCMG Construction Machinery Co generated revenue of 103B CNY at a net margin of 6.4%. Revenue grew 9.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.6%. Net debt stands at 9.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.93 (bear case) to ¥9.88 (bull case); at ¥8.42, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -6%, 000425 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥20.45) versus Asset-Based (¥3.46). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and sale of construction machinery in China. The company offers hoisting machinery, excavators, loaders, road machinery, piling machinery, non-excavation machinery, concrete machinery, special vehicles, aerial working equipment, sanitation machinery, fire-fighting machinery, tunnel …
Full company description
XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and sale of construction machinery in China. The company offers hoisting machinery, excavators, loaders, road machinery, piling machinery, non-excavation machinery, concrete machinery, special vehicles, aerial working equipment, sanitation machinery, fire-fighting machinery, tunnel machinery, resource exploration machinery, and port machinery. It also exports its products. The company was founded in 1943 and is based in Xuzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
XCMG Construction Machinery Co reported revenue of ¥101B in FY2025 versus ¥117B in FY2021, a compound −3.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥6.6B in FY2025, compounding −5.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 146 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $952.41 | $307.83 | -68% |
| Deere & Company DE | $597.24 | $187.86 | -69% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 336.60 | kr 288.08 | -14% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $126.20 | $94.80 | -25% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 251.90 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €69.40 | €219.41 | +216% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.65 | ¥20.84 | +12% |
| Traton SE 8TRA | €35.80 | €52.60 | +47% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.00 | HK$53.51 | +31% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥32.29 | ¥42.00 | +30% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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