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XCMG Construction Machinery Co (000425) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 96.3B CNY

XC XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 · SHE
Price¥8.42
Fair Value¥7.91
Upside-6.1%
Quality54/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 6.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.46% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (13/15)
Narrow moat 44/100
Evidence: High Range ¥5.93 – ¥9.88 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from ¥11.79 to ¥7.91 (−32.9%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −4.1% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from ¥5.93 (bear) to ¥9.88 (bull), base ¥7.91. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 54/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥12.36 ¥3.97 Fair Value ¥7.91 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.97 – ¥12.36 · fair‑value band ¥5.93 – ¥9.88 · the ¥8.42 price screens above the ¥7.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

XCMG Construction Machinery Co (000425) currently trades at ¥8.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.91, implying the stock looks roughly 6.1% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, XCMG Construction Machinery Co generated revenue of 103B CNY at a net margin of 6.4%. Revenue grew 9.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.6%. Net debt stands at 9.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥5.93 (bear case) to ¥9.88 (bull case); at ¥8.42, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -6%, 000425 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥13.60 ¥26.34 ¥49.85 80
Residual Income ¥4.64 ¥5.29 ¥9.76 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥10.50 ¥18.48 ¥30.08 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥14.09 ¥23.81 ¥50.07 38
Owner Earnings ¥10.02 ¥20.45 ¥41.58 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥10.50 ¥18.21 ¥30.89 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥13.03 ¥23.83 ¥40.53 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥10.70 ¥19.32 ¥30.01 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥11.24 ¥20.07 ¥32.38 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥13.30 ¥24.65 ¥44.46 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥11.69 ¥20.45 ¥34.60 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥3.82 ¥24.90 ¥34.84 54
Lynch FV ¥7.24 ¥10.35 ¥13.45 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥7.24 ¥10.35 ¥13.45 46
EPV ¥8.31 ¥9.50 ¥10.54 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥8.42 ¥11.22 ¥14.03 63
P/S Multiple ¥7.16 ¥9.54 ¥11.93 58
P/B Multiple ¥7.16 ¥9.54 ¥11.93 55
EV/EBIT ¥12.42 ¥16.16 ¥19.91 53
EV/EBITDA ¥12.97 ¥16.90 ¥20.83 54
EV/Revenue ¥8.75 ¥12.00 ¥15.25 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.58 ¥3.46 ¥5.16 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥13.60 ¥26.34 ¥49.85 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥10.50 ¥18.48 ¥30.08 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥4.64 ¥5.29 ¥9.76 76
ROIC Compounder ¥9.94 ¥14.03 ¥19.15 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥9.95 ¥14.22 ¥18.48 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥20.45) versus Asset-Based (¥3.46). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 103B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.3%
Net margin 6.4%
Return on equity 10.6%
Free cash flow 10.0B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 16.7
More key figures
Operating margin 10.3%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.5700
Dividend yield 2.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +1.7%
Net debt 9.2B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 27
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and sale of construction machinery in China. The company offers hoisting machinery, excavators, loaders, road machinery, piling machinery, non-excavation machinery, concrete machinery, special vehicles, aerial working equipment, sanitation machinery, fire-fighting machinery, tunnel …

Full company description

XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and sale of construction machinery in China. The company offers hoisting machinery, excavators, loaders, road machinery, piling machinery, non-excavation machinery, concrete machinery, special vehicles, aerial working equipment, sanitation machinery, fire-fighting machinery, tunnel machinery, resource exploration machinery, and port machinery. It also exports its products. The company was founded in 1943 and is based in Xuzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

XCMG Construction Machinery Co reported revenue of ¥101B in FY2025 versus ¥117B in FY2021, a compound −3.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥6.6B in FY2025, compounding −5.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 72/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
101B CNY
Latest YoY
+10.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+2.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+6.4%
Avg. growth/yr (30Y)
+17.5%
Revenue −3.6%/yr
FY21 ¥117B
FY22 ¥93.8B
FY23 ¥92.8B
FY24 ¥91.7B
FY25 ¥101B
Net income −5.4%/yr
FY21 ¥8.2B
FY22 ¥4.3B
FY23 ¥5.3B
FY24 ¥6.0B
FY25 ¥6.6B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "XCMG Construction Machinery Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000425

Peer Group

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 146 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside −6% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.14× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.59× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.93× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.46× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 25 · sector 22
FUTURE 47 · sector 30
PAST 42 · sector 33
HEALTH 93 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 49 · sector 37

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Caterpillar Inc CAT $952.41 $307.83 -68%
Deere & Company DE $597.24 $187.86 -69%
AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA kr 336.60 kr 288.08 -14%
PACCAR Inc PCAR $126.20 $94.80 -25%
Epiroc AB EPIA kr 251.90 kr 144.14 -43%
Exor N.V EXO €69.40 €219.41 +216%
Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 ¥18.65 ¥20.84 +12%
Traton SE 8TRA €35.80 €52.60 +47%
Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 HK$41.00 HK$53.51 +31%
Yutong Bus Co 600066 ¥32.29 ¥42.00 +30%

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Frequently asked questions

Is XCMG Construction Machinery Co (000425) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.91 versus a price of ¥8.42, about −6% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 000425?
Our model-based fair value for XCMG Construction Machinery Co is ¥7.91 (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥8.42.
What is the quality score of 000425?
XCMG Construction Machinery Co has a Quality Score of 54/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of XCMG Construction Machinery Co (000425)?
XCMG Construction Machinery Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 103B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 000425?
The net profit margin of XCMG Construction Machinery Co is about 6.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does XCMG Construction Machinery Co pay a dividend?
XCMG Construction Machinery Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.12% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 15, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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