Traton SE (8TRA) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · DE · Market cap €18.0B

Below-average quality, screening 34% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• Our model range runs from €39.45 (bear) to €65.75 (bull), base €52.60. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
• Quality 44/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €10.01 – €40.86 · fair‑value band €39.45 – €65.75 · the €39.28 price screens below the €52.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Traton SE (8TRA) currently trades at €39.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €52.60, implying the stock looks roughly 33.9% undervalued today. We read business quality at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Traton SE generated revenue of €43.7B at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue declined 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.9%. Net debt stands at €24.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €39.45 (bear case) to €65.75 (bull case); at €39.28, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 34%, 8TRA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€55.41) versus Economic Profit (€16.78). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Traton SE, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells commercial vehicles in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States of America, rest of North America, Brazil, rest of South America, and internationally.

Full company description

Traton SE, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells commercial vehicles in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States of America, rest of North America, Brazil, rest of South America, and internationally. It operates through Scania Vehicles and Services; MAN Truck & Bus; International Motors; Volkswagen Truck & Bus; and TRATON Financial Services segments. The company offers heavy-duty trucks; light commercial options and durable construction vehicles; school buses under the IC Bus brand; commercial buses; vans, trucks, and buses; and diesel and gas engines, as well as services for passenger and freight transport. It provides a cloud-based platform for the transport and logistics industry under the RIO brand; after-sales services; and custom digital solutions, as well as operates charging stations for commercial vehicles. The company offers its products and services under the MAN, Scania, International, and Volkswagen Truck & Bus brands. In addition, it finances, insures, and leases commercial vehicles. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany. Traton SE is a subsidiary of Volkswagen International Luxemburg S.A.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Traton SE reported revenue of €44.1B in FY2025 versus €30.6B in FY2021, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was €1.5B in FY2025, compounding +35.6%/yr from FY2021.

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Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• Traton SE (TRATF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Order Intake and Electrification ... Yahoo Finance · Jul 23, 2026
• Traton SE (TRATF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strong Order ... Yahoo Finance · Apr 30, 2026
• Information on the Convocation of the Virtual Annual General Meeting 2026 of TRATON SE Yahoo Finance · Apr 28, 2026
• Traton truck deliveries fall 6% in first quarter as US weakness persists Yahoo Finance · Apr 13, 2026

Peer Group

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 146 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.