Traton SE (8TRA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Traton SE is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
- Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
- Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
- Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
At a glance
Below-average quality, trading 30% below our fair value of €52.60.
As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Traton SE is €52.60 per share against a price of €37.08, so the fair value sits 42% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −4.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€39.45). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €10.01 – €41.28 · fair‑value band €39.45 – €65.75 · the €37.08 price screens below the €52.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
Analysis
Traton SE (8TRA) currently trades at €37.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €52.60, implying the stock looks roughly 29.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €57.87 per share, and 8 of the 17 models we run sit above the €37.08 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €16.78, and 9 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Traton SE generated revenue of €43.7B at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue declined 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.9%. Net debt stands at €24.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026
Scenario range: €39.45 (bear) to €65.75 (bull), the price of €37.08 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 42%, 8TRA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.16 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€57.87) versus Economic Profit (€16.78). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Traton SE, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells commercial vehicles in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States of America, rest of North America, Brazil, rest of South America, and internationally.
Full company description
Traton SE, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells commercial vehicles in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States of America, rest of North America, Brazil, rest of South America, and internationally. It operates through Scania Vehicles and Services; MAN Truck & Bus; International Motors; Volkswagen Truck & Bus; and TRATON Financial Services segments. The company offers heavy-duty trucks; light commercial options and durable construction vehicles; school buses under the IC Bus brand; commercial buses; vans, trucks, and buses; and diesel and gas engines, as well as services for passenger and freight transport. It provides a cloud-based platform for the transport and logistics industry under the RIO brand; after-sales services; and custom digital solutions, as well as operates charging stations for commercial vehicles. The company offers its products and services under the MAN, Scania, International, and Volkswagen Truck & Bus brands. In addition, it finances, insures, and leases commercial vehicles. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany. Traton SE is a subsidiary of Volkswagen International Luxemburg S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Traton SE reported revenue of €44.1B in FY2025 versus €30.6B in FY2021, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was €1.5B in FY2025, compounding +35.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Traton SE (TRATF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Order Intake and Electrification ...
- Traton SE (TRATF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strong Order ...
- Information on the Convocation of the Virtual Annual General Meeting 2026 of TRATON SE
- Traton truck deliveries fall 6% in first quarter as US weakness persists
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $813.94 | $307.83 | −62% |
| Deere & Company DE | $693.53 | $182.29 | −74% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 351.40 | kr 288.08 | −18% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $122.45 | $94.80 | −23% |
| Daimler Truck Holding DTG | €45.73 | €47.70 | +4% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 272.80 | kr 144.14 | −47% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €72.10 | €123.44 | +71% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥19.06 | ¥20.84 | +9% |
| Metso Oyj METSO | €16.75 | €10.73 | −36% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.11 | ¥11.79 | +45% |
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