Traton SE (8TRA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Traton SE is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €10.01 – €41.28 · fair‑value band €30.72 – €42.01 · the €36.04 price screens above the €32.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Traton SE, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells commercial vehicles in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States of America, rest of North America, Brazil, rest of South America, and internationally.
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Traton SE, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells commercial vehicles in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States of America, rest of North America, Brazil, rest of South America, and internationally. It operates through Scania Vehicles and Services; MAN Truck & Bus; International Motors; Volkswagen Truck & Bus; and TRATON Financial Services segments. The company offers heavy-duty trucks; light commercial options and durable construction vehicles; school buses under the IC Bus brand; commercial buses; vans, trucks, and buses; and diesel and gas engines, as well as services for passenger and freight transport. It provides a cloud-based platform for the transport and logistics industry under the RIO brand; after-sales services; and custom digital solutions, as well as operates charging stations for commercial vehicles. The company offers its products and services under the MAN, Scania, International, and Volkswagen Truck & Bus brands. In addition, it finances, insures, and leases commercial vehicles. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany. Traton SE is a subsidiary of Volkswagen International Luxemburg S.A.
Stock analysis
Traton SE (8TRA) currently trades at €36.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €32.88, implying the stock looks roughly 9.6% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €57.87 per share, and 9 of the 17 models we run sit above the €36.04 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €16.78, and 8 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €30.72 (bear) to €42.01 (bull), the price of €36.04 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Traton SE reported revenue of €44.1B in FY2025 versus €30.6B in FY2021, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was €1.5B in FY2025, compounding +35.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €18.0B · P/E ratio 13.8 · P/S ratio 0.48 · EPS (TTM) €2.61 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −9%, 8TRA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €30.72Fair Value €32.88Bull €42.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.22 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs −2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 6%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (54 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 152 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+39% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.86× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Traton SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8TRA
Frequently asked questions
Is Traton SE (8TRA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €32.88 versus a price of €36.04, about −9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 8TRA?
Our model-based fair value for Traton SE is €32.88 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €36.04.
What is the quality score of 8TRA?
Traton SE has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Traton SE (8TRA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €32.88 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario €30.72, optimistic scenario €42.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Traton SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €32.88, about −9% upside versus a price of €36.04 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €30.72, optimistic scenario €42.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Traton SE (8TRA)?
Traton SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €43.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Traton SE pay a dividend?
Traton SE currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.58% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Traton SE (8TRA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Traton SE it is €32.88 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of €36.04. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Traton SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 8TRA trades above its calculated fair value: price €36.04, fair value €32.88, a gap of about −9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8TRA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€36.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€32.88). For Traton SE the two are €3.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Traton SE worth?
The market values Traton SE at about €18.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is €36.04; our models calculate a fair value of €32.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8TRA?
Our models span a range for Traton SE: cautious scenario €30.72, base €32.88, optimistic €42.01 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price €36.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8TRA?
Traton SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €32.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Traton SE (8TRA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Traton SE (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 0.86 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8TRA from its 52-week high?
Traton SE trades at €36.04, about 3% below its 52-week high of €37.34 and 40% above the low of €25.78 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €32.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Traton SE?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, AB Volvo (publ),, PACCAR Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Traton SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price €36.04, calculated fair value €32.88 (−9%), Quality Score 35/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8TRA calculated?
We run Traton SE through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €32.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Traton SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Traton SE (8TRA)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was €36.04. Our model-based fair value is €32.88, about −9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Traton SE right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Traton SE
How large is the market capitalisation of Traton SE (8TRA)?
The market capitalisation of Traton SE is €18.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Traton SE (8TRA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Traton SE is 0.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Traton SE (8TRA)?
Earnings per share at Traton SE are €2.61 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Traton SE (8TRA)?
The dividend yield of Traton SE is 2.6% (payout 35.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Traton SE (8TRA)?
The net margin of Traton SE is 3.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Traton SE (8TRA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Traton SE is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Traton SE (8TRA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Traton SE is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Traton SE (8TRA)?
The operating margin of Traton SE is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Traton SE (8TRA)?
Revenue at Traton SE is growing −3.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Traton SE (8TRA)?
Earnings per share at Traton SE are growing −51.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Traton SE (8TRA) generate?
The free cash flow of Traton SE is −€1.9B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Traton SE (8TRA) carry?
The net debt of Traton SE is €24.2B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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