Metso Oyj (METSO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · FI · Market cap €12.6B
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +9.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 37% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€13.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (€7.43 to €13.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €5.65 – €17.64 · fair‑value band €7.43 – €13.41 · the €16.90 price screens above the €10.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Metso Oyj (METSO) currently trades at €16.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.73, implying the stock looks roughly 36.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Metso Oyj generated revenue of €5.3B at a net margin of 8.1%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.6%. Net debt stands at €1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €7.43 (bear case) to €13.41 (bull case); at €16.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -37%, METSO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€14.08) versus Asset-Based (€2.15). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Metso Oyj provides technologies, end-to-end solutions, and services for the aggregates, minerals processing, and metals refining industries in Europe, North and Central America, South America, the Asia Pacific, Greater China, Africa, the Middle East, and India. It operates in two segments, Aggregates and Minerals.
Full company description
Metso Oyj provides technologies, end-to-end solutions, and services for the aggregates, minerals processing, and metals refining industries in Europe, North and Central America, South America, the Asia Pacific, Greater China, Africa, the Middle East, and India. It operates in two segments, Aggregates and Minerals. The company provides various equipment, parts, and services for contractors, aggregates quarries, manufacturing sand, slag recycling, and construction and demolition waste recycling; mobile equipment; and stationary equipment, such as crushers, screens, crushing and screening plants, conveyors, chutes, feeders, and air classifiers. It also offers loading and hauling, crushing, conveying, screening, grinding, floatation, magnetic separation, filtration, material and slurry handling, thickening and clarifying, hydrometallurgy, in-pit crush and convey, tailing management, digital twins, and automation services. In addition, the company provides spare and wear parts, including haul truck liners, crusher spares and wears, conveyor parts, screen/feeder spares, screening media, mill liners and spares, floatation and filtration parts, stacker reclaimers parts, apron feeder parts, slurry pumps parts, thickener parts, and wear lining products. Further, it offers life cycle, maintenance and repairs, modernizations and upgrades, process optimization, and training services. The company was formerly known as Metso Outotec Oyj. Metso Oyj was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Metso Oyj reported revenue of €5.2B in FY2025 versus €4.2B in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was €423M in FY2025, compounding +5.5%/yr from FY2021.
METSO screens 37% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Avalon Advanced Materials Announces Finnvera Letter of Interest Supporting Potential EUR 100 Million Financing for Metso Equipment and Servi
- Metso invests in new mineralogy analysis equipment in Finland
- Metso secures contract for Tia Maria project in Peru
- Assessing Metso Oyj (HLSE:METSO) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 146 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $952.41 | $307.83 | -68% |
| Deere & Company DE | $597.24 | $187.86 | -69% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 336.60 | kr 288.08 | -14% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $126.20 | $94.80 | -25% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 251.90 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €69.40 | €219.41 | +216% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.65 | ¥20.84 | +12% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.39 | ¥11.79 | +41% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.00 | HK$53.51 | +31% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥32.29 | ¥42.00 | +30% |
Compare Metso Oyj with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Industrials stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Metso Oyj (METSO) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of METSO?
What is the quality score of METSO?
What is the revenue of Metso Oyj (METSO)?
What is the net profit margin of METSO?
Does Metso Oyj pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Metso Oyj and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.