ChengDu Hi-Tech Development Co Ltd (000628) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 18.8B CNY
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 17, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price +33.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 762% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥6.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.45 – ¥89.54 · fair‑value band ¥4.87 – ¥6.92 · the ¥47.76 price screens above the ¥5.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.
Analysis
ChengDu Hi-Tech Development Co Ltd (000628) currently trades at ¥47.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.54, implying the stock looks roughly 88.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, ChengDu Hi-Tech Development Co Ltd generated revenue of 4.8B CNY at a net margin of 2.3%. Revenue declined 22.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. Net debt stands at 1.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥4.87 (bear case) to ¥6.92 (bull case); at ¥47.76, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -88%, 000628 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥12.14) versus Dividend Discount (¥4.04). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ChengDu Hi-Tech Development Co., Ltd. primarily engages in the construction business in China and internationally. It is involved in the pre-construction work for housing, municipal utilities, and pre-construction decoration; and smart city construction and operation, and related services.
Full company description
ChengDu Hi-Tech Development Co., Ltd. primarily engages in the construction business in China and internationally. It is involved in the pre-construction work for housing, municipal utilities, and pre-construction decoration; and smart city construction and operation, and related services. The company also engages in digital energy; software and information technology services; business services; landscape business; and management services. In addition, it designs, develops, manufactures, and sells power semiconductor devices and kitchen cabinets. The company was formerly known as Chengdu Beite Development Group Co., Ltd. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ChengDu Hi-Tech Development Co Ltd reported revenue of ¥5.0B in FY2025 versus ¥6.6B in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥115M in FY2025, compounding −8.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +19.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
000628 screens 88% overvalued. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 841 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta Services, Inc PWR | $678.02 | $143.92 | -79% |
| Vinci SA DG | €119.95 | €185.62 | +55% |
| Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX | $1,739 | $519.97 | -70% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹4,072 | ₹2,196 | -46% |
| Ferrovial N.V FER | €57.28 | €19.17 | -67% |
| HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT | €427.60 | €203.87 | -52% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 357,500 KRW | 261,411 KRW | -27% |
| ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A ACS | €110.70 | €75.04 | -32% |
| EMCOR Group EME | $833.40 | $549.47 | -34% |
| MasTec, Inc MTZ | $281.11 | $100.00 | -64% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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