EMCOR Group Inc (EME) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of EMCOR Group Inc stock $524, price $595, that is 12.0% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $94.98 – $942.76 · fair‑value band $337.10 – $695.64 · the $595.32 price screens above the $524.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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EMCOR Group, Inc. provides electrical and mechanical construction and facilities, building, and industrial services in the United States and the United Kingdom.
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It offers design, integration, installation, startup, operation, and maintenance services related to power transmission, distribution, and generation systems; energy solutions; premises electrical and lighting systems; process instrumentation; low-voltage systems; voice and data communications systems; roadway and transit lighting, signaling, and fiber optic lines; computerized traffic control systems, and signal and communication equipment; heating, ventilation, air conditioning, refrigeration, and geothermal solutions; clean-room process ventilation systems; fire protection and suppression systems; plumbing, process, and piping systems; control and filtration systems; water and wastewater treatment systems; central plant heating and cooling systems; crane and rigging; millwright; and steel fabrication, erection, and welding services.
The company also provides site-based operations and maintenance; facility management and maintenance; energy retrofit; military base operations support; indoor air quality; floor care and janitorial; landscaping, lot sweeping, and snow removal; vendor management and call center; installation and support for building systems; program development, management, and maintenance for energy systems; technical consulting and diagnostic; infrastructure and building projects; modification and retrofit projects; and reception, security, and catering services.
In addition, it offers refinery turnaround planning and engineering; welding; overhaul and maintenance; technical; instrumentation, controls, and electrical; electrical panel design, fabrication, and installation; on-site repair and maintenance; and renewable energy services, as well as design, manufacturing, repair, and hydro blast cleaning services.
The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.
Stock analysis
EMCOR Group Inc (EME) currently trades at $595.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $524.14, 12% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $580.09 per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the $595.32 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $214.40, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $337.10 (bear) to $695.64 (bull), the price of $595.32 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
EMCOR Group Inc reported revenue of $17.0B in FY2025 versus $9.9B in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding +34.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $25.2B Large · P/E ratio 17.2 · P/S ratio 1.27 · EPS (TTM) $34.59 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 7.8% · Return on equity 40.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −12%, EME screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$337.10Fair Value $524.14Bull$695.64
Price $595.32 · Downside -12.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($29.04 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $2,300, on Sep 1, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $2.7M.
BuyM Kevin McEvoyDirector3 shares at $766.63$2,300Sep 1, 2026
SaleCarol P LoweDirector950 shares at $844.50$802,275Jun 17, 2026
SaleWilliam P ReidDirector2,000 shares at $925.78$1.9MMay 11, 2026
SaleJohn W AltmeyerDirector2,500 shares at $895.00$2.2MMay 1, 2026
SaleSteven SchwarzwaelderDirector5,602 shares at $895.19$5.0MApr 30, 2026
SaleJason R NalbandianSVP, CFO, Chief Acct. Officer800 shares at $856.43$685,144Apr 30, 2026
SaleRobert Peter LindVP and Controller2× since Dec 23, 2025: 675 shares, avg. $894.14$603,832Apr 30, 2026
SaleAnthony GuzziChairman, President and CEO, Director36,000 shares at $729.48$26.3MMar 5, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMaxine Lum MauricioCAO, EVP & General Counsel3,357 shares at $735.00$2.5MMar 2, 2026
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.7% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+30.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.37.4% vs 26.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.1% a year for the price and +11.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Strong returns and cash metrics support a moderate moat through pricing and operations, yet insufficient public signals on innovation and other factors limit visibility into overall quality.
Main risk: Named competitors such as Comfort Systems USA, Quanta Services and APi Group bid aggressively in a fragmented market with low barriers, which could squeeze prices and margins on EMCOR's project and service work.
Bull case: By leveraging its scale, recent acquisitions and prefabrication capabilities EMCOR could win more complex data-center and infrastructure projects and maintain or expand margins despite competitive bidding.
Bear case: If aggressive bidding by rivals intensifies or government funding for key legislation falls short, project wins and margins could decline while integration of acquisitions adds overhead without offsetting revenue growth.
EMCOR has just added five electrical contractors through acquisitions that expand its footprint in data centers and AI-related infrastructure across states like Texas, Illinois and Florida. These deals build directly on the record backlog already fueled by organic demand in network projects. Will the new capabilities accelerate project wins in high-growth segments or mainly add integration overhead that tempers margins?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 789 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−12.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)40.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)10.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)28.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "EMCOR Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EME
Frequently asked questions
Is EMCOR Group Inc (EME) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $524.14 versus a price of $595.32, about 12% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EME?
Our model-based fair value for EMCOR Group Inc is $524.14 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $595.32.
What is the quality score of EME?
EMCOR Group Inc has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $524.14 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $337.10, optimistic scenario $695.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the EMCOR Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $524.14, about 12% lower versus a price of $595.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $337.10, optimistic scenario $695.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
EMCOR Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does EMCOR Group Inc pay a dividend?
EMCOR Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.07% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, EMCOR Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +10.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.1 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EME use?
Our models discount EMCOR Group Inc at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.16, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For EMCOR Group Inc that is +10.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has EMCOR Group Inc (EME) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at EMCOR Group Inc grew +14.1 % a year. The price currently implies +10.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of EMCOR Group Inc (EME) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into EMCOR Group Inc (+10.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.43 %: that much free cash flow EMCOR Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For EMCOR Group Inc it is $524.14 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $595.32. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is EMCOR Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, EME trades above its calculated fair value: price $595.32, fair value $524.14, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EME?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($595.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($524.14). For EMCOR Group Inc the two are $71.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is EMCOR Group Inc worth?
The market values EMCOR Group Inc at about $25.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $595.32; our models calculate a fair value of $524.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EME?
Our models span a range for EMCOR Group Inc: cautious scenario $337.10, base $524.14, optimistic $695.64 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $595.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EME?
EMCOR Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.2 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $524.14 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 23.0 (reported for FY2025: 21.1). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 18.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 6.9, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 11.1.
What is the PEG ratio of EME?
The PEG ratio of EMCOR Group Inc is 1.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
Balance-sheet figures for EMCOR Group Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 40.6%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EME from its 52-week high?
EMCOR Group Inc trades at $595.32, about 37% below its 52-week high of $942.76 and 3% above the low of $580.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $524.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to EMCOR Group Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is EMCOR Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $595.32, calculated fair value $524.14 (−12%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EME calculated?
We run EMCOR Group Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $524.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. EMCOR Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $595.32. Our model-based fair value is $524.14, about 12% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with EMCOR Group Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range ($337.10 to $695.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of EMCOR Group Inc (EME) come from?
Earnings per share at EMCOR Group Inc grew +25.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.7 %, EBIT margin +8.4 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of EMCOR Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
The market capitalisation of EMCOR Group Inc is $25.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
The price-to-sales ratio of EMCOR Group Inc is 1.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
Earnings per share at EMCOR Group Inc are $34.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
The dividend yield of EMCOR Group Inc is 0.1% (payout 1.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 1.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
The net margin of EMCOR Group Inc is 7.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
The return on equity (ROE) of EMCOR Group Inc is 40.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of EMCOR Group Inc is 13.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
The operating margin of EMCOR Group Inc is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
Revenue at EMCOR Group Inc is growing +28.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at EMCOR Group Inc (EME)?
Earnings per share at EMCOR Group Inc are growing +37.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does EMCOR Group Inc (EME) hold?
EMCOR Group Inc holds more cash than debt, $268M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026