HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft stock €204, price €346, that is 41.1% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 41% below what the stock costs today.
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +10.7 %/yr in EUR)
Generates free cash flow
1.9% dividend yield · Sustainable
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Profit last quarter +49% vs. a year ago.
Quality 59/100
Thin margins · 2.2% net margin (TTM)
Moderate moat45/100 · thin data
Fair value €203.86 · Strongly overvalued (−41.1%)
High debt
Trails peers(5/14)
⚠ Small free float
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: AI infrastructure sentiment has weighed on the shares🚩Autmatec acquisition awaiting regulatory clearance🚩Generative AI could automate engineering work🚩Nuclear regulators could delay Sellafield projects
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €39.30 – €549.00 · fair‑value band €152.90 – €254.83 · the €346.40 price screens above the €203.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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HOCHTIEF engages in the construction business worldwide. It operates under Turner, CIMIC, Engineering and construction, and Abertis segment.
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The company provides solutions for large-scale building, civil engineering and industrial projects, including engineering, project management, supply chain, and procurement services to the execution of civil works and industrial and infrastructure maintenance services, as well as construction management services.
It also engages in the engineering and construction businesses for public and private clients; infrastructure investment activities; and industrial, energy, natural resources, and civil infrastructure business. HOCHTIEF was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Essen, Germany.
HOCHTIEF is a subsidiary of ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A.
Stock analysis
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT) currently trades at €346.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €203.86, 41% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €330.45 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the €346.40 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €69.91, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €152.90 (bear) to €254.83 (bull), the price of €346.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft reported revenue of €38.2B in FY2025 versus €21.4B in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was €902M in FY2025, compounding +32.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €26.1B Large · P/E ratio 29.3 · P/S ratio 0.73 · EPS (TTM) €11.81 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 92.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −41%, HOT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€152.90Fair Value €203.86Bull€254.83
Price €346.40 · Downside -41.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€4.42 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+23.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.1% vs 12.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 3%
2025 sits 73% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.9% a year for the price and +8.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (84 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Record order growth in data center and power transmission work supports visibility, yet thin margins and elevated debt limit any durable advantage.
Main risk: Generative AI and agentic tools might automate around half of non-physical tasks in architecture and engineering, which could reduce demand for traditional design and planning services in the construction sector.
Bull case: HOCHTIEF could integrate AI tools into its engineering processes to boost productivity and win more complex data-centre and nuclear projects by offering faster, lower-cost delivery.
Bear case: Widespread AI automation combined with stricter nuclear oversight might erode margins on engineering services and extend timelines on key UK contracts, limiting earnings stability from the nuclear pipeline.
Hochtief is expanding its data center and power transmission work through new contracts and the planned Autmatec acquisition, yet the deal still awaits regulatory clearance while broader AI infrastructure sentiment has weighed on the shares. Record order growth offers visibility, but execution risks and valuation stretch create tension around whether these projects will deliver sustained results. Will the pipeline gains outweigh the delays and external sentiment swings?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 789 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−41.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)92.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)2.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity5.83× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)29.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B23.07× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.73× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow18.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA18.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.80× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)68· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)38· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HOT
Frequently asked questions
Is HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €203.86 versus a price of €346.40, about 41% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HOT?
Our model-based fair value for HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft is €203.86 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €346.40.
What is the quality score of HOT?
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €203.86 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €152.90, optimistic scenario €254.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €203.86, about 41% lower versus a price of €346.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €152.90, optimistic scenario €254.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €40.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft pay a dividend?
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft currently shows a dividend yield of 1.91% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft would have to grow free cash flow by +3.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.8 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HOT use?
Our models discount HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft that is +3.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft grew +10.8 % a year. The price currently implies +3.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (+3.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.19 %: that much free cash flow HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft it is €203.86 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €346.40. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, HOT trades above its calculated fair value: price €346.40, fair value €203.86, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HOT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€346.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€203.86). For HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft the two are €142.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft worth?
The market values HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft at about €26.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €346.40; our models calculate a fair value of €203.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HOT?
Our models span a range for HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft: cautious scenario €152.90, base €203.86, optimistic €254.83 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €346.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HOT?
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.3 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €203.86 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 33.0 (reported for FY2025: 28.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 14.4. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 23.1, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 18.2.
What is the PEG ratio of HOT?
The PEG ratio of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft is 2.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
Balance-sheet figures for HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 92.9%, debt of 5.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HOT from its 52-week high?
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft trades at €346.40, about 37% below its 52-week high of €549.00 and 34% above the low of €258.35 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €203.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €346.40, calculated fair value €203.86 (−41%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HOT calculated?
We run HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €203.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €346.40. Our model-based fair value is €203.86, about 41% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€254.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT) come from?
Earnings per share at HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft grew +11.0 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.1 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate +3.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft
How large is the market capitalisation of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
The market capitalisation of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft is €26.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft is 0.73 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
Earnings per share at HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft are €11.81 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
The dividend yield of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft is 1.9% (payout 63.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 55.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
The net margin of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft is 2.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft is 92.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
The operating margin of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
Revenue at HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft is growing +13.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT)?
Earnings per share at HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft are growing +48.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT) carry?
The net debt of HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft is €2.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026