HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · DE · Market cap €34.3B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price −3.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 55% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€254.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €39.30 – €549.00 · fair‑value band €152.90 – €254.84 · the €457.20 price screens above the €203.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT) currently trades at €457.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €203.87, implying the stock looks roughly 55.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft generated revenue of €38.7B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 64.1%. Net debt stands at €2.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €152.90 (bear case) to €254.84 (bull case); at €457.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 205% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -55%, HOT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€275.28) versus Asset-Based (€11.29). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft engages in the construction business worldwide. It operates under Turner, CIMIC, Engineering and construction, and Abertis segment.
Full company description
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft engages in the construction business worldwide. It operates under Turner, CIMIC, Engineering and construction, and Abertis segment. The company provides solutions for large-scale building, civil engineering and industrial projects, including engineering, project management, supply chain, and procurement services to the execution of civil works and industrial and infrastructure maintenance services, as well as construction management services. It also engages in the engineering and construction businesses for public and private clients; infrastructure investment activities; and industrial, energy, natural resources, and civil infrastructure business. HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Essen, Germany. HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft is a subsidiary of ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft reported revenue of €38.2B in FY2025 versus €21.4B in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was €902M in FY2025, compounding +32.4%/yr from FY2021.
HOT screens 55% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Hochtief AG (HOCFF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Orders and Raised Guidance ...
- HOCHTIEF's (ETR:HOT) Conservative Accounting Might Explain Soft Earnings
- HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HOT) Released Earnings Last Week And Analysts Lifted Their Price Target To €414
- Why You Might Be Interested In HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HOT) For Its Upcoming Dividend
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 831 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,815 | ₹1,994 | -48% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 346,000 KRW | 268,779 KRW | -22% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 99,000 KRW | 63,993 KRW | -35% |
| United Integrated Services Co 2404 | 1,250 TWD | 925.62 TWD | -26% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 42,550 KRW | 44,840 KRW | +5% |
| Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL | ₹232.67 | ₹61.46 | -74% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 16,240 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -60% |
| NBCC (India) Limited NBCC | ₹102.36 | ₹48.22 | -53% |
| Cemindia Projects Limited CEMPRO | ₹1,330 | ₹730.69 | -45% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 92,700 KRW | 20,172 KRW | -78% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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