Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd ¥14.98, price ¥7.49, upside +100.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.15 – ¥9.49 · fair‑value band ¥4.58 – ¥20.92 · the ¥7.49 price screens below the ¥14.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Guoyuan Securities Company Limited operates as a securities company in China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Wealth & Credit, Financial Markets, Investment Banking, Asset Management, Institutional, and International.
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Guoyuan Securities Company Limited operates as a securities company in China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Wealth & Credit, Financial Markets, Investment Banking, Asset Management, Institutional, and International. It offers wealth management services, such as stocks, funds, bonds, income certificates, cash management products, and derivatives such as options and futures; fixed income foreign exchange products, equity investment, securities market making, innovative finance, and alternative investments; equity financing, debt financing, mergers and acquisitions, financial advisory, and the New Third Board business; asset management services covering private equity funds, public funds, etc.; and research support, investment and financing matching, comprehensive financial product allocation, and customized service solutions. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Hefei, China.
Stock analysis
Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728) currently trades at ¥7.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.98, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥29.16 per share, and 8 of the 13 models we run sit above the ¥7.49 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥5.69, and 5 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥4.58 (bear) to ¥20.92 (bull), the price of ¥7.49 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd reported revenue of 9.8B CNY in FY2024 versus 5.6B CNY in FY2020, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B CNY in FY2024, compounding +13.1%/yr from FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap 33.0B CNY (≈ $4.9B) · P/E ratio 14.1 · P/S ratio 3.23 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.5300 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 22.9% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 100%, 000728 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥4.58Fair Value ¥14.98Bull ¥20.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3500 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16% vs 2%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 28%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.3% a year for the forecasts.
Compare Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 463 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+100% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)39% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)50% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−13% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000728
Frequently asked questions
Is Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥14.98 versus a price of ¥7.49, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000728?
Our model-based fair value for Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd is ¥14.98 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥7.49.
What is the quality score of 000728?
Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥14.98 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.58, optimistic scenario ¥20.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥14.98, about +100% upside versus a price of ¥7.49 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.58, optimistic scenario ¥20.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.40% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000728 use?
Our models discount Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd grew +17.6 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.51 %: that much free cash flow Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd it is ¥14.98 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥7.49. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 000728 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥7.49, fair value ¥14.98, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000728?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥7.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥14.98). For Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd the two are ¥7.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd at about 33.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥7.49; our models calculate a fair value of ¥14.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000728?
Our models span a range for Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥4.58, base ¥14.98, optimistic ¥20.92 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥7.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000728?
Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥14.98 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 5.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.1%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000728 from its 52-week high?
Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd trades at ¥7.49, about 21% below its 52-week high of ¥9.49 and 11% above the low of ¥6.74 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥14.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥7.49, calculated fair value ¥14.98 (+100%), Quality Score 63/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000728 calculated?
We run Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥14.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd currently trades 100 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥7.49. Our model-based fair value is ¥14.98, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (¥4.58 to ¥20.92). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728) come from?
Earnings per share at Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd grew −1.0 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin −7.5 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
The market capitalisation of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd is 33.0B CNY (≈ $4.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd is 3.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
Earnings per share at Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd are ¥0.5300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
The dividend yield of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd is 2.4% (payout 34.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
The net margin of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd is 22.9% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
The operating margin of Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd is 49.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
Revenue at Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd is growing −12.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728)?
Earnings per share at Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd are growing −20.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd (000728) hold?
Guoyuan Securities Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 16.2B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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