CASIN Real Estate Development Group (000838) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · CN · Market cap 1.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +11.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 70% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.9700). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥0.5000 to ¥0.9700) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.44 – ¥10.84 · fair‑value band ¥0.5000 – ¥0.9700 · the ¥2.47 price screens above the ¥0.7400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
CASIN Real Estate Development Group (000838) currently trades at ¥2.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.7400, implying the stock looks roughly 70.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at 205M CNY. Revenue declined 67.8% year over year. Net debt stands at 48.8M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.5000 (bear case) to ¥0.9700 (bull case); at ¥2.47, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at -70%, 000838 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥1.26) versus Multiples (¥0.7600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the real estate businesses in China. It is also involved in real estate development; resource recycling and comprehensive utilization; environmental engineering; energy performance contract; environmental water treatment, sewage treatment; domestic trade; investment in industry; wholesale of hardware …
Full company description
CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the real estate businesses in China. It is also involved in real estate development; resource recycling and comprehensive utilization; environmental engineering; energy performance contract; environmental water treatment, sewage treatment; domestic trade; investment in industry; wholesale of hardware product; sale of internet; and provision of building and decorative materials. The company was formerly known as CASIN Guoxing Property Development Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co.,Ltd. in May 2019. CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1989 and is based in Chongqing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CASIN Real Estate Development Group reported revenue of ¥283M in FY2025 versus ¥5.1B in FY2021, a compound −51.3%/yr. Reported net income was −¥630M in FY2025.
000838 screens 70% overvalued. Compare with DLF Limited →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹657.75 | ₹159.49 | -76% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,188 | ₹583.43 | -51% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,125 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY | ₹1,925 | ₹1,183 | -39% |
| Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP | ₹2,102 | ₹1,044 | -50% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 64.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +32% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,100 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +52% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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