CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd ¥1.55, price ¥2.31, upside -32.9%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.44 – ¥10.84 · fair‑value band ¥0.8700 – ¥2.14 · the ¥2.31 price screens above the ¥1.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the real estate businesses in China.
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CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the real estate businesses in China. It is also involved in real estate development; resource recycling and comprehensive utilization; environmental engineering; energy performance contract; environmental water treatment, sewage treatment; domestic trade; investment in industry; wholesale of hardware product; sale of internet; and provision of building and decorative materials. The company was formerly known as CASIN Guoxing Property Development Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co.,Ltd. in May 2019. CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1989 and is based in Chongqing, China.
Stock analysis
CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838) currently trades at ¥2.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.55, implying the stock looks roughly 49.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥1.63 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥2.31 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ¥0.7600, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.8700 (bear) to ¥2.14 (bull), the price of ¥2.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 283M CNY in FY2025 versus 5.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −51.3%/yr. Reported net income was −630M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.5B CNY (≈ $379M) · P/S ratio 8.68 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.5800 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Return on equity −519% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.1% · Operating margin −20.2% · Revenue (TTM) 205M CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at −33%, 000838 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥0.8700Fair Value ¥1.55Bull ¥2.14
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−65.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−59.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−45.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −8.2% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.8% (2018) → −79.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.5% a year for the price.
Compare CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 578 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−33% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−10% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−20% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−68% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.85× · Pricier than median
P/FCF5.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)14· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000838
Frequently asked questions
Is CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.55 versus a price of ¥2.31, about −33% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000838?
Our model-based fair value for CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd is ¥1.55 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥2.31.
What is the quality score of 000838?
CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.55 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.8700, optimistic scenario ¥2.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.55, about −33% upside versus a price of ¥2.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.8700, optimistic scenario ¥2.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 205M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.72% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +30.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -45.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000838 use?
Our models discount CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd at 13.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.86, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd that is +30.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd grew -45.8 % a year. The price currently implies +30.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (+30.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.60 %: that much free cash flow CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd it is ¥1.55 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥2.31. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 000838 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥2.31, fair value ¥1.55, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000838?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥2.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.55). For CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd the two are ¥0.7600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd at about 2.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥2.31; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000838?
Our models span a range for CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.8700, base ¥1.55, optimistic ¥2.14 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥2.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
Balance-sheet figures for CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000838 from its 52-week high?
CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd trades at ¥2.31, about 42% below its 52-week high of ¥3.98 and 60% above the low of ¥1.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥2.31, calculated fair value ¥1.55 (−33%), Quality Score 45/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000838 calculated?
We run CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥2.31. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.55, about −33% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥0.8700 to ¥2.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
The market capitalisation of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd is 2.5B CNY (≈ $379M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd is 8.68 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
Earnings per share at CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd are ¥−0.5800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
The dividend yield of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd is 0.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the return on equity of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd is −519% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd is −4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
The operating margin of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd is −20.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
Revenue at CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd is growing −67.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −59.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838)?
Earnings per share at CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd are growing −37.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd (000838) carry?
The net debt of CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co Ltd is 48.8M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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