Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Topsec Technologies Group Inc ¥1.32, price ¥7.21, upside -81.7%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.06 – ¥20.95 · fair‑value band ¥0.9900 – ¥1.65 · the ¥7.21 price screens above the ¥1.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Topsec Technologies Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides network security and intelligent cloud solutions for basic networks, industrial internet, internet of vehicles, and internet of things in China.
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Topsec Technologies Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides network security and intelligent cloud solutions for basic networks, industrial internet, internet of vehicles, and internet of things in China. It is involved in technical development and consulting, software development and sales, network and information security software development, electronic product sales, and communication equipment sales, as well as the provision of computer systems and technical services. The company was formerly known as Nanyang Topsec Technologies Group Inc. and changed its name to Topsec Technologies Group Inc. in November 2020. Topsec Technologies Group Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Shantou, China.
Stock analysis
Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212) currently trades at ¥7.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.32, 81.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥5.47 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥7.21 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.2100, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.9900 (bear) to ¥1.65 (bull), the price of ¥7.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Topsec Technologies Group Inc reported revenue of 2.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.4%/yr. Reported net income was 74.2M CNY in FY2025, compounding −24.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 8.5B CNY (≈ $1.3B) · P/E ratio 180.3 · P/S ratio 5.20 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0400 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 2.9% · Return on equity 0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −82%, 002212 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.2100 to ¥5.47). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥0.9900Fair Value ¥1.32Bull ¥1.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0302 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−26.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−26.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−29.1% vs −5.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Topsec Technologies Group Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 357 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−81.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.4% · Below median
Return on assets−0.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−84.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−32.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)180.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.88× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.46× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 60
PAST (return on equity)2· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)7· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Topsec Technologies Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002212
Frequently asked questions
Is Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.32 versus a price of ¥7.21, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002212?
Our model-based fair value for Topsec Technologies Group Inc is ¥1.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥7.21.
What is the quality score of 002212?
Topsec Technologies Group Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.9900, optimistic scenario ¥1.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Topsec Technologies Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.32, about −82% upside versus a price of ¥7.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.9900, optimistic scenario ¥1.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212)?
Topsec Technologies Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Topsec Technologies Group Inc pay a dividend?
Topsec Technologies Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Topsec Technologies Group Inc it is ¥1.32 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥7.21. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Topsec Technologies Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002212 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥7.21, fair value ¥1.32, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002212?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥7.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.32). For Topsec Technologies Group Inc the two are ¥5.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Topsec Technologies Group Inc worth?
The market values Topsec Technologies Group Inc at about 8.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥7.21; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002212?
Our models span a range for Topsec Technologies Group Inc: cautious scenario ¥0.9900, base ¥1.32, optimistic ¥1.65 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥7.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002212?
Topsec Technologies Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 180.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥1.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 3.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212)?
Balance-sheet figures for Topsec Technologies Group Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.4%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002212 from its 52-week high?
Topsec Technologies Group Inc trades at ¥7.21, about 35% below its 52-week high of ¥11.08 and 37% above the low of ¥5.27 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Topsec Technologies Group Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, CrowdStrike Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Topsec Technologies Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥7.21, calculated fair value ¥1.32 (−82%), Quality Score 49/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002212 calculated?
We run Topsec Technologies Group Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Topsec Technologies Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥7.21. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.32, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Topsec Technologies Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Topsec Technologies Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212)?
The market capitalisation of Topsec Technologies Group Inc is 8.5B CNY (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Topsec Technologies Group Inc is 5.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212)?
Earnings per share at Topsec Technologies Group Inc are ¥0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 180.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212)?
The dividend yield of Topsec Technologies Group Inc is 0.3% (payout 59.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212)?
The net margin of Topsec Technologies Group Inc is 2.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Topsec Technologies Group Inc is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Topsec Technologies Group Inc is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212)?
The operating margin of Topsec Technologies Group Inc is −84.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212)?
Revenue at Topsec Technologies Group Inc is growing −32.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212)?
Earnings per share at Topsec Technologies Group Inc are growing +12.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212) generate?
The free cash flow of Topsec Technologies Group Inc is −127M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Topsec Technologies Group Inc (002212) hold?
Topsec Technologies Group Inc holds more cash than debt, 588M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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