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Fortinet, Inc (FTNT) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $118B

FI Fortinet, Inc logo Fortinet, Inc FTNT · US
Price$160.11
Fair Value$44.96
Upside-71.9%
Quality80/100
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Healthy Growth
Highly profitable · 27.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Wide moat 95/100
Evidence: High Range $34.23 – $92.19 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +0.9% over the past month.

A strong business, but screening 72% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($92.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($34.23 to $92.19). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$168.29 $39.41 Fair Value $44.96 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $39.41 – $168.29 · fair‑value band $34.23 – $92.19 · the $160.11 price screens above the $44.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Fortinet, Inc (FTNT) currently trades at $160.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.96, implying the stock looks roughly 71.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 80/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Fortinet, Inc generated revenue of $7.1B at a net margin of 27.5%. Revenue grew 20.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 132.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $34.23 (bear case) to $92.19 (bull case); at $160.11, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 128% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -72%, FTNT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $49.40 $92.19 $175.80 80
Residual Income $8.09 $11.53 $157.56 76
Rev-Margin DCF $28.79 $49.99 $82.00 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $51.96 $83.19 $176.57 38
Owner Earnings $41.83 $91.71 $196.41 31
5Y Revenue Exit $28.79 $45.80 $78.81 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $39.39 $68.37 $121.90 41
5Y P/E Exit $43.52 $86.48 $142.15 38
10Y Revenue Exit $34.78 $60.73 $85.09 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $42.99 $81.44 $151.29 37
10Y P/E Exit $45.92 $89.51 $165.10 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $17.20 $119.97 $168.35 54
Lynch FV $37.74 $53.91 $70.08 50
PEG = 1.0 $37.74 $53.91 $70.08 46
EPV $24.08 $27.64 $30.76 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $12.40 $25.78 $40.90 70
DDM Multi-Stage $12.40 $21.74 $27.06 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $37.95 $50.59 $63.24 63
P/S Multiple $17.40 $23.20 $29.00 58
P/B Multiple $3.80 $5.07 $6.33 55
EV/EBIT $41.09 $53.88 $66.67 53
EV/EBITDA $34.91 $45.64 $56.37 54
EV/Revenue $18.97 $25.93 $32.89 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.8400 $1.13 $1.69 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $49.40 $92.19 $175.80 80
Rev-Margin DCF $28.79 $49.99 $82.00 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $8.09 $11.53 $157.56 76
ROIC Compounder $24.08 $27.64 $30.76 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $49.64 $70.91 $92.19 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($81.44) versus Asset-Based ($1.13). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $7.1B
Revenue growth (YoY) +20.1%
Net margin 27.5%
Return on equity 132%
Free cash flow $2.2B FY2025
P/E ratio 58.2
More key figures
Operating margin 31.3%
EPS (TTM) $2.57
EPS growth (YoY) +28.6%
Net cash $1.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 80/100

Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82

Profitability 88
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 86
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 44
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Fortinet, Inc. provides cybersecurity and convergence of networking and security solutions worldwide. The company offers FortiOS, a unified operating system designed to address cybersecurity threats; FortiASIC application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC)-based security processing units; FortiCloud, a private cloud software as a service platform; FortiAI, …

Full company description

Fortinet, Inc. provides cybersecurity and convergence of networking and security solutions worldwide. The company offers FortiOS, a unified operating system designed to address cybersecurity threats; FortiASIC application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC)-based security processing units; FortiCloud, a private cloud software as a service platform; FortiAI, which provides a dual-layered defense across the Fortinet Security Fabric; FortiEndpoint, which converges secure connectivity, endpoint protection, and capabilities into a single agent; and OT Security, which protect the engineered systems that underpin infrastructure and supply chains. It also provides secure networking solutions that focus on the convergence of networking and security; network firewall solutions comprising FortiGate data centers, hyperscale, and distributed firewalls; wireless local area network solutions; and secure connectivity solutions. In addition, the company offers the Fortinet Unified Secure Access Service Edge solutions that include firewall, software-defined wide-area network, secure web gateway, cloud access services broker, data loss prevention, and zero trust network access; and web application firewalls, cloud network security with virtualized firewalls, cloud-native firewalls, cloud-native application protection, and code security. Further, it provides AI-driven security operation solutions, which include a suite of cybersecurity solutions, as well as FortiEDR, FortiXDR, FortiNDR, FortiSandbox, FortiDeceptor, FortiDLP, and FortiRecon. Additionally, the company offers FortiGuard Labs, a cybersecurity threat intelligence and research organization; FortiGuard and Other Security Services, a suite of AI-powered security capabilities that consists of FortiGuard application, content, device, NOC/SOC, and web security services; and FortiCare technical support services. Fortinet, Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Fortinet, Inc reported revenue of $6.8B in FY2025 versus $3.3B in FY2021, a compound +19.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9B in FY2025, compounding +32.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$6.8B
Latest YoY
+14.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+15.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+21.3%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y)
+23.5%
Revenue +19.4%/yr
FY21 $3.3B
FY22 $4.4B
FY23 $5.3B
FY24 $6.0B
FY25 $6.8B
Net income +32.2%/yr
FY21 $607M
FY22 $857M
FY23 $1.1B
FY24 $1.7B
FY25 $1.9B

FTNT screens 72% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fortinet, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FTNT

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Software - Infrastructure · 367 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −72% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 132% · Top 25%
Return on assets 14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 31% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 20% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.40× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 62.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 16.54× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 52.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 48.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 3.62× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 46
PAST 100 · sector 15
HEALTH 80 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 44/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $384.00 $274.17 -29%
Oracle Corporation ORAC C$9.08 C$2.94 -68%
Palantir Technologies Inc 1PLTR €112.86 €12.03 -89%
Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS €381.50 €118.28 -69%
Block, Inc XYZ A$114.53 A$70.69 -38%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $79.94 $44.89 -44%
Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 ¥71.60 ¥34.00 -53%
Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS ₹11,651 ₹5,821 -50%
One97 Communications Limited PAYTM ₹1,342 ₹181.50 -86%
Sangfor Technologies Inc 300454 ¥88.80 ¥16.46 -81%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Fortinet, Inc (FTNT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $44.96 versus a price of $160.11, about −72% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FTNT?
Our model-based fair value for Fortinet, Inc is $44.96 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $160.11.
What is the quality score of FTNT?
Fortinet, Inc has a Quality Score of 80/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Fortinet, Inc (FTNT)?
Fortinet, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.1B (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of FTNT?
The net profit margin of Fortinet, Inc is about 27.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 27.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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