Hongbo Co (002229) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 6.4B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥10.00 to ¥2.48 (−75.2%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +11.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.54 – ¥45.29 · fair‑value band ¥1.99 – ¥2.98 · the ¥10.58 price screens above the ¥2.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Hongbo Co (002229) currently trades at ¥10.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.48, implying the stock looks roughly 76.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hongbo Co generated revenue of 425M CNY at a net margin of -61.7%. Revenue declined 87.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -19.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 258M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.99 (bear case) to ¥2.98 (bull case); at ¥10.58, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -77%, 002229 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥2.91) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.7300). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hongbo Co.,Ltd. engages in the security printing business in China and internationally. The company is also involved in the production and sales of thermal paper lottery ticket products, ordinary tax invoices, certificates and other ticket products; production and sales of packaging and decoration products, office paper, and other products; lottery ticket …
Full company description
Hongbo Co.,Ltd. engages in the security printing business in China and internationally. The company is also involved in the production and sales of thermal paper lottery ticket products, ordinary tax invoices, certificates and other ticket products; production and sales of packaging and decoration products, office paper, and other products; lottery ticket purchasing, new lottery development, and technical maintenance; sales of alcohol; production of RFID smart labels, such as smart labels, financial IC cards, and social security cards, and Internet of Things technology services; and one-stop computing power rental and cloud resource procurement services provision. The company was formerly known as Fujian Hongbo Printing Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Hongbo Co.,Ltd. in August 2013. Hongbo Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Fuzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hongbo Co reported revenue of ¥1.0B in FY2025 versus ¥574M in FY2021, a compound +15.2%/yr. Reported net income was −¥146M in FY2025.
002229 screens 77% overvalued. Compare with Cintas Corporation →
Peer Group
Specialty Business Services · 255 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation CTAS | $206.25 | $95.30 | -54% |
| RELX PLC RELX | $33.70 | $32.49 | -4% |
| Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI | C$133.87 | C$70.40 | -47% |
| Copart, Inc CPRT | $27.61 | $28.59 | +4% |
| Global Payments Inc GPN | $80.49 | $69.67 | -13% |
| RB Global, Inc RBA | C$156.43 | C$49.14 | -69% |
| Brambles Limited BXB | A$18.79 | A$12.28 | -35% |
| UL Solutions Inc ULS | $87.76 | $33.62 | -62% |
| Wolters Kluwer N.V WKL | €62.56 | €103.99 | +66% |
| Aramark ARMK | $56.74 | $13.73 | -76% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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