Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd stock ¥3.99, price ¥38.47, upside -89.6%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥13.77 – ¥67.82 · fair‑value band ¥3.33 – ¥5.17 · the ¥38.47 price screens above the ¥3.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.
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Changchun UP Optotech Co.,Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sale of photoelectric measurement and control equipment products in China.
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It also offers optomechanical instruments, optomechanical integrated equipment, optical materials, optical components, medical equipment, disinfection equipment, grating encoders products, composite material products, and disinfectants.
Its products include photoelectric theodolite, aerospace products, space camera, K9 Optical Glass, Coating materials; and medical devices, including special visual inspection device, portable digital inclinometer, tilting bed, vestibular function checker, dark adaptation checker, rapid physical examination device, cervical psoas muscle trainer, high-throughput cell screener, large field of view imaging analyzer, acidic oxidation potential water, and intravenous fluid aids.
Further, it is involved in import business of mechanical equipment, spare parts, raw and auxiliary materials, and technologies. The company was founded in 2001 and is based in Changchun, China.
Stock analysis
Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338) currently trades at ¥38.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.99, 89.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥4.75 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥38.47 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.5700, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥3.33 (bear) to ¥5.17 (bull), the price of ¥38.47 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd reported revenue of 745M CNY in FY2024 versus 441M CNY in FY2020, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was 66.4M CNY in FY2024, compounding +7.9%/yr from FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap 9.2B CNY (≈ $1.4B) Small · P/E ratio 83.6 · P/S ratio 10.5 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4600 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 12.5% · Return on equity 7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −90%, 002338 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.5700 to ¥18.41). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥3.33Fair Value ¥3.99Bull¥5.17
Price ¥38.47 · Upside -89.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3900 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.47/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.0% vs 1.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 15%
Compare Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Scientific & Technical Instruments · 158 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002338
Frequently asked questions
Is Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.99 versus a price of ¥38.47, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002338?
Our model-based fair value for Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd is ¥3.99 (as of Oct 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥38.47.
What is the quality score of 002338?
Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.99 (as of Oct 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.33, optimistic scenario ¥5.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.99, about −90% upside versus a price of ¥38.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.33, optimistic scenario ¥5.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338)?
Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 878M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 24, 2026).
Does Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.18% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd it is ¥3.99 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026), against a price of ¥38.47. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 24, 2026, 002338 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥38.47, fair value ¥3.99, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002338?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥38.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.99). For Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd the two are ¥34.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd worth?
The market values Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd at about 9.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥38.47; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002338?
Our models span a range for Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥3.33, base ¥3.99, optimistic ¥5.17 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026, price ¥38.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002338?
Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 83.6 (as of Oct 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥3.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.0, P/S 10.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338)?
Balance-sheet figures for Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (as of Oct 24, 2026): return on equity 7.8%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002338 from its 52-week high?
Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd trades at ¥38.47, about 43% below its 52-week high of ¥67.82 and 6% above the low of ¥36.45 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Keysight Technologies, Inc, Garmin Ltd, Coherent Corp, Teledyne Technologies Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 24, 2026: price ¥38.47, calculated fair value ¥3.99 (−90%), Quality Score 44/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002338 calculated?
We run Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was ¥38.47. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.99, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338) come from?
Earnings per share at Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd grew +3.2 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.6 %, EBIT margin +1.8 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338)?
The market capitalisation of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd is 9.2B CNY (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd is 10.5 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338)?
Earnings per share at Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd are ¥0.4600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 83.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338)?
The dividend yield of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd is 0.2% (payout 15.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338)?
The net margin of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd is 12.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338)?
The operating margin of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338)?
Revenue at Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd is growing +8.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338)?
Earnings per share at Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd are growing +72.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338) generate?
The free cash flow of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd is −47.3M CNY (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd (002338) carry?
The net debt of Changchun UP Optotech Co Ltd is 16.1M CNY (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 24, 2026