Palm Eco-Town Development Co (002431) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 2.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥1.05 to ¥1.76 (+67.6%) since Jun 25, 2026.
Below-average quality, screening 32% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (30/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥1.60). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.21 – ¥5.39 · fair‑value band ¥1.60 – ¥2.01 · the ¥1.33 price screens below the ¥1.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Palm Eco-Town Development Co (002431) currently trades at ¥1.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.76, implying the stock looks roughly 32.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Palm Eco-Town Development Co generated revenue of 1.5B CNY at a net margin of -75.4%. Revenue declined 64.9% year over year. Net debt stands at 1.4B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.60 (bear case) to ¥2.01 (bull case); at ¥1.33, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 32%, 002431 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥1.57) versus Asset-Based (¥0.1600). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Palm Eco-Town Development Co., Ltd engages in the design, planning, construction, and operation of eco-towns in China. It is also involved in the garden, engineering and landscape, and smart urban and rural construction businesses.
Full company description
Palm Eco-Town Development Co., Ltd engages in the design, planning, construction, and operation of eco-towns in China. It is also involved in the garden, engineering and landscape, and smart urban and rural construction businesses. The company also engages in water conservancy and hydropower projects, municipal facilities management, offers investment and asset management services, and education and tourism consulting. The company was formerly known as Palm Landscape Architecture Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Palm Eco-Town Development Co., Ltd in April 2016. Palm Eco-Town Development Co., Ltd was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Zhengzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Palm Eco-Town Development Co reported revenue of ¥2.0B in FY2025 versus ¥4.0B in FY2021, a compound −16.0%/yr. Reported net income was −¥1.2B in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 839 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,815 | ₹1,994 | -48% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 346,000 KRW | 268,779 KRW | -22% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 99,000 KRW | 63,993 KRW | -35% |
| United Integrated Services Co 2404 | 1,250 TWD | 925.62 TWD | -26% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 42,550 KRW | 44,840 KRW | +5% |
| Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL | ₹232.67 | ₹61.46 | -74% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 16,240 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -60% |
| NBCC (India) Limited NBCC | ₹96.32 | ₹48.22 | -50% |
| Cemindia Projects Limited CEMPRO | ₹1,330 | ₹730.69 | -45% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 92,700 KRW | 20,172 KRW | -78% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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