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Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co (002549) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 12.4B CNY

HK Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co 002549 · SHE
Price¥14.40
Fair Value¥1.68
Upside-88.3%
Quality47/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 7.7% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
0.29% dividend yield
Trails peers (3/14)
Narrow moat 29/100
Evidence: High Range ¥1.26 – ¥2.10 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥1.98 to ¥1.68 (−15.2%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −15.6% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 88% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥28.44 ¥4.69 Fair Value ¥1.68 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.69 – ¥28.44 · fair‑value band ¥1.26 – ¥2.10 · the ¥14.40 price screens above the ¥1.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co (002549) currently trades at ¥14.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.68, implying the stock looks roughly 88.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co generated revenue of 618M CNY at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue declined 5.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 433M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥1.26 (bear case) to ¥2.10 (bull case); at ¥14.40, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -88%, 002549 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥2.16 ¥2.10 ¥1.80 76
ROIC Compounder ¥2.07 ¥2.24 ¥2.38 72
Gordon GGM ¥0.1600 ¥0.3300 ¥0.5200 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥0.6700 ¥2.80 ¥3.82 54
Lynch FV ¥0.7100 ¥1.01 ¥1.32 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥0.7100 ¥1.01 ¥1.32 46
EPV ¥2.07 ¥2.24 ¥2.38 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.1600 ¥0.3300 ¥0.5200 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.1600 ¥0.2800 ¥0.3400 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥1.26 ¥1.68 ¥2.10 63
P/S Multiple ¥1.01 ¥1.35 ¥1.69 58
P/B Multiple ¥1.26 ¥1.68 ¥2.10 55
EV/EBIT ¥2.30 ¥2.70 ¥3.10 53
EV/EBITDA ¥3.05 ¥3.71 ¥4.37 54
EV/Revenue ¥2.03 ¥2.43 ¥2.84 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.48 ¥1.99 ¥2.97 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥2.16 ¥2.10 ¥1.80 76
ROIC Compounder ¥2.07 ¥2.24 ¥2.38 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥1.08 ¥1.54 ¥2.00 68

Widest divergence: Economic Profit (¥2.10) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.2800). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 618M CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -5.6%
Net margin 7.7%
Return on equity 2.3%
Free cash flow −207M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 254.7
More key figures
Operating margin 8.1%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.0700
Dividend yield 0.3%
EPS growth (YoY) -66.3%
Net cash 433M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 46
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 22
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 44
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 63
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co., Ltd. produces and sells industrial gases in China. The company engages in the research, development, production, and sale of dry ice, food additive, liquid carbon dioxide, methane, oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, argon, helium, neon, krypton, xenon, and other industrial gases.

Full company description

Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co., Ltd. produces and sells industrial gases in China. The company engages in the research, development, production, and sale of dry ice, food additive, liquid carbon dioxide, methane, oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, argon, helium, neon, krypton, xenon, and other industrial gases. It is also involved in the production, filling, sales, and transportation of medical gases. The company uses petrochemical tail gas (waste gas) and flare gas as raw materials to develop and produce a variety of gas products, mainly including combustible gas and other gases; sales of electronic special materials; manufacturing of electronic special materials; and research and development of electronic special materials. The company serves electronics, chemical, beverage, food, tobacco, petroleum, metallurgy, agriculture, and other fields. Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co., Ltd. was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Yueyang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co reported revenue of ¥627M in FY2025 versus ¥668M in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥68.6M in FY2025, compounding −16.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 28/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
627M CNY
Latest YoY
+6.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−9.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+3.9%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y)
+14.7%
Revenue −1.6%/yr
FY21 ¥668M
FY22 ¥852M
FY23 ¥571M
FY24 ¥588M
FY25 ¥627M
Net income −16.2%/yr
FY21 ¥139M
FY22 ¥166M
FY23 −¥25.6M
FY24 −¥48.6M
FY25 ¥68.6M

002549 screens 88% overvalued. Compare with BASF SE →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002549

Peer Group

Chemicals · 334 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −88% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Revenue growth -6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.05× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 254.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 6.01× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 20.07× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 90.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 1.15× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 20
PAST 9 · sector 19
HEALTH 98 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 6 · sector 27

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BASF SE BASN 1,034 MXN 532.13 MXN -49%
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 ¥20.32 ¥20.17 -1%
Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 ¥42.85 ¥23.35 -46%
PT Barito Pacific Tbk, BRPT 1,690 IDR 1,628 IDR -4%
LG Chem, Ltd 051910 260,500 KRW 587,755 KRW +126%
Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation 1326 66.10 TWD 6.79 TWD -90%
PTT Global Chemical Public Company PTTGC 35.50 THB 18.21 THB -49%
542812 542812 ₹4,369 ₹791.05 -82%
Indorama Ventures Public Company IVL 24.50 THB 17.95 THB -27%
Navin Fluorine International Limited NAVINFLUOR ₹8,650 ₹2,146 -75%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co (002549) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.68 versus a price of ¥14.40, about −88% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002549?
Our model-based fair value for Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co is ¥1.68 (as of Jul 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥14.40.
What is the quality score of 002549?
Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co (002549)?
Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 618M CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002549?
The net profit margin of Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co is about 7.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co pay a dividend?
Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 22, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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