Realcan Pharmaceutical Group (002589) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · CN · Market cap 4.0B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +18.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 59% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.09 – ¥6.20 · fair‑value band ¥1.14 – ¥1.43 · the ¥3.04 price screens above the ¥1.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Realcan Pharmaceutical Group (002589) currently trades at ¥3.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.25, implying the stock looks roughly 58.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Realcan Pharmaceutical Group generated revenue of 7.2B CNY at a net margin of 0.2%. Revenue declined 2.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.8%. Net debt stands at 691M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.14 (bear case) to ¥1.43 (bull case); at ¥3.04, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -59%, 002589 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥3.75) versus Earnings-Based (¥0.1000). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Realcan Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. sells medicines, medical devices, and medical consumables to medical institutions in China. It operates through the Drug and Equipment Distribution, In Vitro Diagnostics, Pharmaceutical Logistics, Traditional Chinese Medicine, and Microbiome Medicine segments.
Full company description
Realcan Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. sells medicines, medical devices, and medical consumables to medical institutions in China. It operates through the Drug and Equipment Distribution, In Vitro Diagnostics, Pharmaceutical Logistics, Traditional Chinese Medicine, and Microbiome Medicine segments. The company engages in the processing, manufacture, sale, and wholesale of Chinese medicinal materials, herbal medicine, and patent medicine. It is also involved in the wholesale of biochemical, psychotropic, narcotic, and toxic drugs for medical use; chemical APIs, and preparations; antibiotics, biological products, anabolic steroids, peptide hormones, poppy shells, and pharmaceutical precursor chemicals; and medical devices. In addition, the company provides leasing of medical devices and technical services; investment management and consulting services; medical sterilization outsourcing and consulting services; health consulting services; and pharmaceutical logistics services. Further, it engages in the warehousing and distribution of drugs; technology development and transfer; and operation of a health service platform. The company was formerly known as Realcan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Realcan Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. in December 2018. Realcan Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 2004 and is based in Yantai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Realcan Pharmaceutical Group reported revenue of ¥7.3B in FY2025 versus ¥21.1B in FY2021, a compound −23.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥16.1M in FY2025, compounding −40.8%/yr from FY2021.
002589 screens 59% overvalued. Compare with McKesson Corporation →
Peer Group
Medical Distribution · 81 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McKesson Corporation MCK | $805.96 | $819.31 | +2% |
| Cencora, Inc COR | $303.44 | $175.74 | -42% |
| Cardinal Health, Inc CAH | $224.94 | $141.77 | -37% |
| Henry Schein, Inc HSIC | $87.82 | $74.67 | -15% |
| Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding 601607 | ¥16.70 | ¥33.96 | +103% |
| Sinopharm Group 1099 | HK$16.74 | HK$61.33 | +266% |
| Galenica AG GALE | CHF 87.05 | CHF 61.79 | -29% |
| Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings 600332 | ¥21.50 | ¥28.65 | +33% |
| Jointown Pharmaceutical Group 600998 | ¥4.99 | ¥9.84 | +97% |
| Asker Healthcare Group ASKER | kr 79.45 | kr 25.69 | -68% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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