Modern Avenue Group (002656) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 2.3B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥0.2300 to ¥1.55 (+573.9%) since Jul 22, 2026. Share price +5.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The models converge in a tight band (¥1.41 to ¥1.62), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥0.8500 – ¥4.49 · fair‑value band ¥1.41 – ¥1.62 · the ¥3.00 price screens above the ¥1.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Modern Avenue Group (002656) currently trades at ¥3.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.55, implying the stock looks roughly 48.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Modern Avenue Group generated revenue of 639M CNY at a net margin of -7.8%. Revenue grew 32.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -10.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 110M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.41 (bear case) to ¥1.62 (bull case); at ¥3.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 27% fair-value upside, at -48%, 002656 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥0.5000) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.0300). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Modern Avenue Group Co., Ltd. operates retail outlets in China and internationally. The company has approximately 200 retail outlets, as well as an e-commerce platform. It offers clothing, bags, skin care, cosmetics, and jewelry and accessories under the CANUDILO and DIRK BIKKEMBERGS brands.
Full company description
Modern Avenue Group Co., Ltd. operates retail outlets in China and internationally. The company has approximately 200 retail outlets, as well as an e-commerce platform. It offers clothing, bags, skin care, cosmetics, and jewelry and accessories under the CANUDILO and DIRK BIKKEMBERGS brands. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Modern Avenue Group reported revenue of ¥603M in FY2025 versus ¥385M in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was −¥44.9M in FY2025.
002656 screens 48% overvalued. Compare with H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB →
Peer Group
Apparel Manufacturing · 214 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Manufacturing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB HMB | kr 174.25 | kr 165.47 | -5% |
| LPP SA LPP | 22,220 PLN | 17,754 PLN | -20% |
| Bosideng International Holdings 3998 | HK$4.65 | HK$5.92 | +27% |
| Youngor Fashion Co 600177 | ¥7.78 | ¥5.59 | -28% |
| Page Industries Limited PAGEIND | ₹38,295 | ₹12,395 | -68% |
| Hla Group 600398 | ¥6.07 | ¥9.92 | +63% |
| Youngone Corporation 111770 | 85,200 KRW | 188,736 KRW | +122% |
| F&F Co 383220 | 68,800 KRW | 179,500 KRW | +161% |
| Youngone Holdings 009970 | 188,300 KRW | 697,038 KRW | +270% |
| Wiselink Co 8932 | 105.00 TWD | 37.95 TWD | -64% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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