Kowloon Development Company (0034) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$6.2B
Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 2, 2026, revised from HK$8.79 to HK$8.55 (−2.7%) since Jul 1, 2026. Share price −3.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 80% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$2.53 to HK$8.55). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.66 – HK$7.82 · fair‑value band HK$2.53 – HK$8.55 · the HK$4.76 price screens below the HK$8.55 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
Analysis
Kowloon Development Company (0034) currently trades at HK$4.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.55, implying the stock looks roughly 79.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Kowloon Development Company generated revenue of HK$5.0B at a net margin of 2.6%. Revenue declined 26.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.7%. Net debt stands at HK$19.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$2.53 (bear case) to HK$8.55 (bull case); at HK$4.76, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 80%, 0034 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$16.32) versus Multiples (HK$1.70). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kowloon Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the investment, development, and management of properties in Hong Kong and Mainland China. Its property portfolio comprises of office premises, retail shops, shopping malls, and car parking bays.
Full company description
Kowloon Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the investment, development, and management of properties in Hong Kong and Mainland China. Its property portfolio comprises of office premises, retail shops, shopping malls, and car parking bays. The company provides security, technical, and housekeeping services; building surveying and guarding services; financial investments and services; and project management services, as well as undertakes construction contracts. In addition, it engages in treasury operations; retail activities; and distribution of films and cinematograph films. The company was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Kowloon, Hong Kong. Kowloon Development Company Limited is a subsidiary of Intellinsight Holdings Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kowloon Development Company reported revenue of HK$5.0B in FY2025 versus HK$2.1B in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$131M in FY2025, compounding −50.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −0.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹657.75 | ₹159.49 | -76% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,188 | ₹583.43 | -51% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,125 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY | ₹1,925 | ₹1,183 | -39% |
| Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP | ₹2,102 | ₹1,044 | -50% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 64.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +32% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,100 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +52% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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