San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd (0236) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$430M (≈ $54.8M) · ISIN HK0236001209

What is San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd really worth?

SM San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd 0236 · HK

PriceHK$1.08

Fair ValueHK$3.59

Upside+232.4%

Quality74/100

A solid business, trading 70% below our fair value of HK$3.59.

As of Aug 28, 2026, the fair value of San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd is HK$3.59 per share against a price of HK$1.08, so the fair value sits 232% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +5.8 %/yr)

✓Solidly profitable · 10.3% net margin

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓Ranks above peers (12/13)

Risks

!Moderate moat 49/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on future: 21 out of 100

For context

·5.56% dividend yield

Evidence: Low Range HK$2.84 – HK$4.39

Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 9 days ago

Share price +3.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The rarer combination: high quality (74/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.84). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.5481 – HK$1.30 · fair‑value band HK$2.84 – HK$4.39 · the HK$1.08 price screens below the HK$3.59 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

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Analysis

San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd (0236) currently trades at HK$1.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.59, implying the stock looks roughly 69.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$3.73 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$1.08 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.4200, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd generated revenue of HK$737M at a net margin of 10.3%. Revenue grew 4.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$279M. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$2.84 (bear case) to HK$4.39 (bull case); at HK$1.08, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 232%, 0236 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0478 per share, which is 1.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF best evidence HK$2.48 HK$3.00 HK$3.88 82

Growth DCF HK$2.54 HK$3.03 HK$3.80 80

Owner Earnings HK$2.34 HK$2.81 HK$3.61 78

All 24 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF best evidence HK$2.48 HK$3.00 HK$3.88 82

Owner Earnings HK$2.34 HK$2.81 HK$3.61 78

5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.59 HK$3.42 HK$4.62 73

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.00 HK$4.13 HK$5.62 76

5Y P/E Exit HK$3.06 HK$4.24 HK$5.64 71

10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.48 HK$3.05 HK$3.66 68

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.76 HK$3.46 HK$4.20 70

10Y P/E Exit HK$2.79 HK$3.52 HK$4.21 65

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$1.39 HK$1.69 HK$1.91 67

EPV HK$2.45 HK$2.68 HK$2.87 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$0.3900 HK$0.4200 HK$0.4600 69

DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.3900 HK$0.4600 HK$0.5600 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$3.21 HK$4.28 HK$5.35 63

P/S Multiple HK$2.37 HK$3.16 HK$3.95 58

P/B Multiple HK$2.60 HK$3.46 HK$4.33 55

EV/EBIT HK$4.07 HK$5.18 HK$6.28 66

EV/EBITDA HK$3.84 HK$4.86 HK$5.89 67

EV/Revenue HK$2.84 HK$3.73 HK$4.61 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$0.9600 HK$1.29 HK$1.92 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$2.54 HK$3.03 HK$3.80 80

Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.59 HK$3.46 HK$4.53 74

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$1.61 HK$1.77 HK$2.34 76

ROIC Compounder HK$2.45 HK$2.73 HK$3.01 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$2.27 HK$3.24 HK$4.21 67

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$3.73) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.4200). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 5.8 as of Jul 1, 2026

P/S ratio 0.59 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.1300 price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.8

Dividend yield 5.6% payout 46.2%

Net margin 10.3% FY2025

Return on equity 11.8% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% avg 5y

Operating margin 8.0% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$737M TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +4.2% 3y avg +2.7%

EPS growth (YoY) +32.0%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$79.1M FY2025

Net cash HK$279M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 74/100

Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 57

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 67

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 58

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 100

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 82

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 82

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 29

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 35

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Limited engages in the manufacturing and distribution of bottled, canned, and draught beers in Hong Kong, Mainland China, the Philippines, and internationally.

Full company description

San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Limited engages in the manufacturing and distribution of bottled, canned, and draught beers in Hong Kong, Mainland China, the Philippines, and internationally. The company offers its products under the San Miguel Pale Pilsen, San Mig Light, San Miguel Cerveza Blanca, San Miguel Cerveza Negra, Red Horse, Blue Ice, Kirin Ichiban, Kirin Lager, Magners Original Apple, Blackthorn, Mahou Cinco Estrellas, Mahou Cinco Estrellas Session IPA, Spitfire Amber Ale, Whitstable Bay Blonde Lager, BrÜck, and Knight, as well as Dragon Gold, Dragon Qing Chun, Dragon Legend, and Dragon Yue X brands. It is also involved in the distribution of imported beer products; and leasing of investment properties. The company was founded in 1948 and is based in Sha Tin, Hong Kong. San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Limited is a subsidiary of Neptunia Corporation Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd reported revenue of HK$737M in FY2025 versus HK$596M in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$76.1M in FY2025, compounding +40.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 76/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$737M

Latest YoY

+3.7%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+2.7%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+5.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (28Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

−1.7%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+40.2% · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share+34.6%

Dividend yield5.6%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 34.6% vs 10Y 13.2%, picking up

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2.7% (2020) → 13.1% (2025) · rising

Worst earnings drop700% (2018) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD

Revenue +5.5%/yr

FY21 HK$596M

FY22 HK$681M

FY23 HK$742M

FY24 HK$711M

FY25 HK$737M

Net income +40.8%/yr

FY21 HK$19.4M

FY22 HK$32.3M

FY23 HK$85.9M

FY24 −HK$20.1M

FY25 HK$76.1M

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +15.6 % p.a.

Revenue per share +1.7 %

of which total revenue +1.7 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin +11.4 %

Tax rate +0.2 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd · Fair Value
HK$3.59 +70%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0236.HK

Peer Group

Beverages - Brewers · 56 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 74 · Top 25%

Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median

Return on assets 7% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Below median

Revenue growth 4% · Above median

Dividend yield (TTM) 5.6% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 0.60× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 0.58× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

EV/EBITDA 1.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 28

FUTURE21 · sector 0

PAST47 · sector 36

HEALTH100 · sector 97

DIVIDEND100 · sector 64

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

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Frequently asked questions

Is San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd (0236) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.59 versus a price of HK$1.08, about +232% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 0236?

Our model-based fair value for San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd is HK$3.59 (as of Aug 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.08.

What is the quality score of 0236?

San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd (0236)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.59 (as of Aug 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.84, optimistic scenario HK$4.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$3.59, about +232% upside versus a price of HK$1.08 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.84, optimistic scenario HK$4.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd (0236)?

San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$737M (latest available figure, as of Aug 28, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 0236?

The net profit margin of San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd is about 10.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd pay a dividend?

San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.56% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 28, 2026).

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