Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd KRW 1,979, price KRW 2,205, upside -10.2%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,830 KRW – 5,460 KRW · fair‑value band 1,816 KRW – 2,119 KRW · the 2,205 KRW price screens above the 1,979 KRW fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hanil Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. produces and supplies automobile components in South Korea and internationally. The company provides axle shafts, spindles, ring gears, hammer forgings, and aluminum forgings for use in SUVs, trucks, buses, trailers, electric trains, ships, aircrafts, and passenger cars, as well as in industrial machinery.
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Hanil Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. produces and supplies automobile components in South Korea and internationally. The company provides axle shafts, spindles, ring gears, hammer forgings, and aluminum forgings for use in SUVs, trucks, buses, trailers, electric trains, ships, aircrafts, and passenger cars, as well as in industrial machinery. It also offers defense industrial products, which are used in antitanks, warships, aircrafts, and heavy weapons; radial forgings for use in ship building, plants, industrial machines, railroad vehicles, iron manufacturing facilities, wind power, nuclear power, etc.; bevel gears for passenger cars and commercial vehicles; and firewall parts for use in Korean mobile helicopters. The company was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Changwon, South Korea.
Stock analysis
Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740) currently trades at 2,205 KRW, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,979 KRW, implying the stock looks roughly 11.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 3,116 KRW per share, and 11 of the 21 models we run sit above the 2,205 KRW price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 434.80 KRW, and 10 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1,816 KRW (bear) to 2,119 KRW (bull), the price of 2,205 KRW sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd reported revenue of 127B KRW in FY2025 versus 152B KRW in FY2021, a compound −4.5%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B KRW in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 71.9B KRW (≈ $52.8M) · P/S ratio 0.40 · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 454% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% · Operating margin 2.5% · Revenue (TTM) 173B KRW · Revenue growth (YoY) +23.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 53% fair-value upside, at −10%, 024740 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1,816 KRWFair Value 1,979 KRWBull 2,119 KRW
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.8% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in KRW ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in KRW: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−15.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16% vs −13%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.2%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+54.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Korea: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +51.0% a year for the price.
Compare Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Automobiles & Auto Parts · 17 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−10% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth24% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Automobiles & Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
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Is Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,979 KRW versus a price of 2,205 KRW, about −10% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 024740?
Our model-based fair value for Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd is 1,979 KRW (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,205 KRW.
What is the quality score of 024740?
Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1,979 KRW (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1,816 KRW, optimistic scenario 2,119 KRW. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1,979 KRW, about −10% upside versus a price of 2,205 KRW (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1,816 KRW, optimistic scenario 2,119 KRW. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740)?
Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 173B KRW (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +54.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 024740 use?
Our models discount Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for South Korea. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd that is +54.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd grew -1.8 % a year. The price currently implies +54.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (+54.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.87 %: that much free cash flow Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd it is 1,979 KRW per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 2,205 KRW. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 024740 trades above its calculated fair value: price 2,205 KRW, fair value 1,979 KRW, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 024740?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,205 KRW); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1,979 KRW). For Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd the two are 225.76 KRW per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd at about 71.9B KRW (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 2,205 KRW; our models calculate a fair value of 1,979 KRW per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 024740?
Our models span a range for Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd: cautious scenario 1,816 KRW, base 1,979 KRW, optimistic 2,119 KRW per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 2,205 KRW). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 453.8%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 024740 from its 52-week high?
Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd trades at 2,205 KRW, about 44% below its 52-week high of 3,945 KRW and 17% above the low of 1,892 KRW (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1,979 KRW is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value GTPPB, GTCAP, Hwashin Precision Engineering Co, Ilji Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 2,205 KRW, calculated fair value 1,979 KRW (−10%), Quality Score 45/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 024740 calculated?
We run Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1,979 KRW, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 2,205 KRW. Our model-based fair value is 1,979 KRW, about −10% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2,119 KRW). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740)?
The market capitalisation of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd is 71.9B KRW (≈ $52.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd is 0.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740)?
The net margin of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd is 1.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd is 454% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740)?
The operating margin of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740)?
Revenue at Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd is growing +23.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740)?
Earnings per share at Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd are growing +777% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd (024740) carry?
The net debt of Hanil Forging Industrial Co. Ltd is 60.6B KRW (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 96.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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