Shui On Land Ltd (0272) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Shui On Land Ltd HK$0.33, price HK$0.46, upside -27.5%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4050 – HK$0.9897 · fair‑value band HK$0.2900 – HK$0.6500 · the HK$0.4550 price screens above the HK$0.3300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shui On Land Limited, an investment holding company, develops and sells properties in the People's Republic of China. It operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Property Management, and Construction. The company develops and sells residential and commercial properties; and leases offices and commercial/mall properties.
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Shui On Land Limited, an investment holding company, develops and sells properties in the People's Republic of China. It operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Property Management, and Construction. The company develops and sells residential and commercial properties; and leases offices and commercial/mall properties. It also provides property management services; construction, interior fitting-out, renovation, and maintenance services for building premises; debt financing and management services; and asset management. Shui On Land Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Shui On Land Ltd (0272) currently trades at HK$0.4550, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3300, implying the stock looks roughly 37.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$3.05 per share, and 2 of the 5 models we run sit above the HK$0.4550 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$0.0500, and 3 of the 5 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.2900 (bear) to HK$0.6500 (bull), the price of HK$0.4550 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Shui On Land Ltd reported revenue of 4.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 17.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound −30.5%/yr. Reported net income was −1.8B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$3.6B (≈ $465M) · P/S ratio 0.90 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Dividend yield 7.3% · Net margin −43.5% · Return on equity −4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1% · Operating margin 12.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at −27%, 0272 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.2900Fair Value HK$0.3300Bull HK$0.6500
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0073 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
25.5% (2020) → 28.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +40.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 577 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−26% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−44% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−67% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.73× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/S (TTM)0.11× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF1.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA17.1× · Pricier than median
PEG1.87× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 49
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)64· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shui On Land Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0272
Frequently asked questions
Is Shui On Land Ltd (0272) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3300 versus a price of HK$0.4550, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0272?
Our model-based fair value for Shui On Land Ltd is HK$0.3300 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.4550.
What is the quality score of 0272?
Shui On Land Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3300 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2900, optimistic scenario HK$0.6500. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shui On Land Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3300, about −27% upside versus a price of HK$0.4550 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2900, optimistic scenario HK$0.6500. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
Shui On Land Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shui On Land Ltd pay a dividend?
Shui On Land Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.27% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shui On Land Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +42.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0272 use?
Our models discount Shui On Land Ltd at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shui On Land Ltd that is +42.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shui On Land Ltd (0272) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shui On Land Ltd grew -2.3 % a year. The price currently implies +42.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shui On Land Ltd (0272) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shui On Land Ltd (+42.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.24 %: that much free cash flow Shui On Land Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shui On Land Ltd it is HK$0.3300 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.4550. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shui On Land Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0272 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.4550, fair value HK$0.3300, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0272?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.4550); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3300). For Shui On Land Ltd the two are HK$0.1250 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shui On Land Ltd worth?
The market values Shui On Land Ltd at about HK$3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.4550; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0272?
Our models span a range for Shui On Land Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.2900, base HK$0.3300, optimistic HK$0.6500 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.4550). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 0272?
The PEG ratio of Shui On Land Ltd is 1.87 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shui On Land Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −4.3%, debt of 0.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0272 from its 52-week high?
Shui On Land Ltd trades at HK$0.4550, about 39% below its 52-week high of HK$0.7400 and 12% above the low of HK$0.4050 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shui On Land Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shui On Land Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.4550, calculated fair value HK$0.3300 (−27%), Quality Score 45/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0272 calculated?
We run Shui On Land Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.3300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Shui On Land Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$0.4550. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3300, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shui On Land Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.2900 to HK$0.6500) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Shui On Land Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
The market capitalisation of Shui On Land Ltd is HK$3.6B (≈ $465M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shui On Land Ltd is 0.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
Earnings per share at Shui On Land Ltd are HK$0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
The dividend yield of Shui On Land Ltd is 7.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
The net margin of Shui On Land Ltd is −43.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shui On Land Ltd is −4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shui On Land Ltd is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
The operating margin of Shui On Land Ltd is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
Revenue at Shui On Land Ltd is growing −66.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −35.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shui On Land Ltd (0272)?
Earnings per share at Shui On Land Ltd are growing −29.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shui On Land Ltd (0272) carry?
The net debt of Shui On Land Ltd is 28.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 73.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026