Luen Thai Holdings Ltd (0311) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$264M (≈ $33.6M) · ISIN KYG5697P1046

What is Luen Thai Holdings Ltd really worth?

LT Luen Thai Holdings Ltd 0311 · HK

PriceHK$0.3200

Fair ValueHK$0.1000

Upside−68.8%

Quality63/100

A solid business, but trading 220% above our fair value of HK$0.1000.

As of Sep 1, 2026, the fair value of Luen Thai Holdings Ltd is HK$0.1000 per share against a price of HK$0.3200, so the fair value sits 69% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.8 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 0.7% net margin

!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)

!Narrow moat 25/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on past: 11 out of 100

Evidence: Low Range HK$0.1000 – HK$0.1200

Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Share price +16.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1200). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1520 – HK$0.4367 · fair‑value band HK$0.1000 – HK$0.1200 · the HK$0.3200 price screens above the HK$0.1000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Luen Thai Holdings Ltd (0311) currently trades at HK$0.3200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1000, implying the stock looks roughly 220.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$0.2500 per share, and 2 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$0.3200 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0400, and 20 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Luen Thai Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$637M at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue declined 7.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.8%. Net debt stands at HK$87.9M. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1000 (bear case) to HK$0.1200 (bull case); at HK$0.3200, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 150% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −69%, 0311 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF best evidence HK$0.2500 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3800 82

Growth DCF HK$0.2500 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3700 80

Owner Earnings HK$0.1800 HK$0.2200 HK$0.2700 78

All 22 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF best evidence HK$0.2500 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3800 82

Owner Earnings HK$0.1800 HK$0.2200 HK$0.2700 78

5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.2000 HK$0.2400 HK$0.3000 74

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.2600 HK$0.3400 HK$0.4500 76

5Y P/E Exit HK$0.1800 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2500 72

10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.2200 HK$0.2500 HK$0.2800 68

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.2500 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3600 70

10Y P/E Exit HK$0.2100 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2500 65

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$0.0300 HK$0.0400 HK$0.0400 67

EPV HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1400 74

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$0.0700 HK$0.1000 HK$0.1200 63

P/S Multiple HK$0.0600 HK$0.0700 HK$0.0900 58

P/B Multiple HK$0.0600 HK$0.0700 HK$0.0900 55

EV/EBIT HK$0.2100 HK$0.2600 HK$0.3100 66

EV/EBITDA HK$0.3000 HK$0.3800 HK$0.4600 67

EV/Revenue HK$0.1600 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2500 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$0.0800 HK$0.1000 HK$0.1500 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$0.2500 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3700 80

Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.2000 HK$0.2500 HK$0.3100 74

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$0.1000 HK$0.0900 HK$0.0700 76

ROIC Compounder HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1400 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.0500 HK$0.0700 HK$0.0900 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$0.2500) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.0400). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 8.5 as of Jul 1, 2026

P/S ratio 0.06 P/E × margin

Net margin 0.7% FY2025

Return on equity 2.8% TTM

Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% avg 5y

Operating margin 2.3% TTM

More key figures

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$637M TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) −7.8% 3y avg −9.5%

EPS growth (YoY) −95.9%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$28.2M FY2025

Net debt HK$87.9M FY2025 · ≈ 3.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 40

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 59

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 65

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 49

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 100

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 50

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 76

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 69

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

Luen Thai Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and trades in apparels and accessories in the People's Republic of China, the United States, Europe, Japan, Canada, South America, and internationally. It sources, manufactures, distributes, exports, and trades in textile and garment products; and manufactures and trades in money pieces. The company also offers technical and management services and provides subcontracting services. In addition, it manufactures and trades in handbags. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong. Luen Thai Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Shangtex (Hong Kong) Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Luen Thai Holdings Ltd reported revenue of $637M in FY2025 versus $796M in FY2021, a compound −5.4%/yr. Reported net income was $4.5M in FY2025, compounding −20.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100

Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$637M

Latest YoY

−5.5%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

−9.5%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

−1.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (22Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+0.7%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

−24.3% · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share−24.3%

Dividend yield0.0%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −24.3% vs 10Y −9.6%, flattening

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3.1% (2020) → 1.9% (2025) · rising

Worst earnings drop442% (2024) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

Revenue −5.4%/yr

FY21 $796M

FY22 $859M

FY23 $697M

FY24 $674M

FY25 $637M

Net income −20.3%/yr

FY21 $11.2M

FY22 $9.9M

FY23 −$6.0M

FY24 −$33.9M

FY25 $4.5M

0311 screens 220% overvalued. Compare with H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB →

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Luen Thai Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.1000 −220%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0311.HK" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Luen Thai Holdings Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$0.1000</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−220%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Luen Thai Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0311.HK

Peer Group

Apparel Manufacturing · 214 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Above median

Fair Value upside −69% · Bottom 25%

Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median

Return on assets 2% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median

Revenue growth −8% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 0.21× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 0.05× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/FCF 1.2× · Cheaper than median

PEG 69.76× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 25

FUTURE0 · sector 4

PAST11 · sector 20

HEALTH100 · sector 98

DIVIDEND0 · sector 54

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Apparel Manufacturing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB HMB	kr 175.50	kr 165.47	−6%
Ralph Lauren Corporation RL	$396.35	$220.38	−44%
Moncler S.p.A MONC	€46.15	€50.69	+10%
Gildan Activewear Inc GIL	C$75.50	C$45.60	−40%
LPP SA LPP	21,340 PLN	17,754 PLN	−17%
Levi Strauss & Co LEVI	$21.05	$15.20	−28%
V.F. Corporation VFC	$13.67	$10.44	−24%
Bosideng International Holdings 3998	HK$4.42	HK$5.92	+34%
Youngor Fashion Co 600177	¥7.91	¥5.59	−29%
Kontoor Brands, Inc KTB	$82.01	$85.76	+5%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Luen Thai Holdings Ltd (0311) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1000 versus a price of HK$0.3200, about −69% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 0311?

Our model-based fair value for Luen Thai Holdings Ltd is HK$0.1000 (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.3200.

What is the quality score of 0311?

Luen Thai Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Luen Thai Holdings Ltd (0311)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1000 (as of Sep 1, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1000, optimistic scenario HK$0.1200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Luen Thai Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$0.1000, about −69% upside versus a price of HK$0.3200 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1000, optimistic scenario HK$0.1200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Luen Thai Holdings Ltd (0311)?

Luen Thai Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$637M (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 0311?

The net profit margin of Luen Thai Holdings Ltd is about 0.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

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