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China Railway (0390) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of China Railway HK$4.51, price HK$3.16, upside +42.8%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · HK · Home China · ISIN CNE1000007Z2

CR Thin data Sep 24, 2026

China Railway

0390 · HK

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value HK$4.51 · Undervalued (+43%)
!Quality 29/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +2.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.0% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·5.32% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Narrow moat 26/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 19 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$5.18 HK$2.70 Fair Value HK$4.51 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.70 – HK$5.18 · fair‑value band HK$3.06 – HK$5.87 · the HK$3.16 price screens below the HK$4.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

China Railway Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction and engineering contractor business in China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Engineering Construction; Design Consulting; Equipment Manufacturing; Specialty Real Estate; Asset Management; and Resource Utilization.

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China Railway Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction and engineering contractor business in China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Engineering Construction; Design Consulting; Equipment Manufacturing; Specialty Real Estate; Asset Management; and Resource Utilization. It constructs railways, highways, bridges, tunnels, urban rail transits, stations and buildings, municipal facilities, and other projects; offers consulting and planning, feasibility study, survey and design, research and development, and construction supervision of railways, highways, and municipal facilities and others; and manufactures steel structure, switch, and other mechanical products, as well as shield machines and back-up equipment, electrified equipment, and railway construction machinery. The company also develops residential, commercial, tourism, and pension real estate, as well as urban complexes; engages in the operation, maintenance, management, and asset management of infrastructure investment projects; and operates mining and provides mineral products, including concentrates of copper, cobalt, molybdenum, lead, and zinc, as well as cathode copper and cobalt hydroxide. In addition, it is involved in financial trust and management; financial services; capital investment; commodity trade; software and information technology services; talent information network services; and franchise operation. The company was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

China Railway (0390) currently trades at HK$3.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.51, implying the stock looks roughly 30.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$17.65 per share, and 16 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$3.16 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$6.70, and 0 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$3.06 (bear) to HK$5.87 (bull), the price of HK$3.16 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

China Railway reported revenue of 1.1T CNY in FY2025 versus 1.1T CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 22.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding −4.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$85.3B (≈ $10.9B) · P/E ratio 3.7 · P/S ratio 0.08 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.6600 · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 43%, 0390 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$3.06 Fair Value HK$4.51 Bull HK$5.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.3612 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$11.01 HK$11.50 HK$11.83 76
EPV HK$8.76 HK$11.24 HK$13.41 74
ROIC Compounder HK$8.76 HK$11.24 HK$13.41 72
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$5.77 HK$20.15 HK$27.09 64
Lynch FV HK$4.69 HK$6.70 HK$8.71 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$4.69 HK$6.70 HK$8.71 57
EPV HK$8.76 HK$11.24 HK$13.41 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$8.28 HK$17.22 HK$27.32 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$8.28 HK$14.46 HK$18.08 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$13.36 HK$17.81 HK$22.26 63
P/S Multiple HK$10.81 HK$14.42 HK$18.02 58
P/B Multiple HK$10.81 HK$14.42 HK$18.02 55
EV/EBIT HK$17.20 HK$24.97 HK$32.74 65
EV/EBITDA HK$18.93 HK$27.27 HK$35.62 67
EV/Revenue HK$10.52 HK$17.65 HK$24.79 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$6.87 HK$9.21 HK$13.75 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$11.01 HK$11.50 HK$11.83 76
ROIC Compounder HK$8.76 HK$11.24 HK$13.41 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$11.51 HK$16.44 HK$21.38 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 20
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 56
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 36
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs 5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 838 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +43% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.13× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.20× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.07× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.2× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.25× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)90 · sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 11
PAST (return on equity)19 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)44 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 41

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Quanta Services, Inc PWR $642.63 $163.08 −75%
Vinci SA DG €112.30 €185.62 +65%
Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX $1,625 $1,122 −31%
Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹3,930 ₹1,994 −49%
Ferrovial N.V FER $56.30 $24.01 −57%
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 367,000 KRW 256,792 KRW −30%
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT €403.60 €203.87 −49%
ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A ACS €95.95 €75.04 −22%
EMCOR Group EME $756.50 $521.87 −31%
MasTec, Inc MTZ $221.69 $106.05 −52%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Railway Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0390

Frequently asked questions

Is China Railway (0390) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.51 versus a price of HK$3.16, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0390?
Our model-based fair value for China Railway is HK$4.51 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.16.
What is the quality score of 0390?
China Railway has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Railway (0390)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.51 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.06, optimistic scenario HK$5.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Railway stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.51, about +43% upside versus a price of HK$3.16 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.06, optimistic scenario HK$5.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Railway (0390)?
China Railway reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1T CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Railway pay a dividend?
China Railway currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Railway (0390)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Railway it is HK$4.51 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$3.16. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Railway stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0390 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$3.16, fair value HK$4.51, a gap of about +43% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0390?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.51). For China Railway the two are HK$1.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Railway worth?
The market values China Railway at about HK$85.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.16; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0390?
Our models span a range for China Railway: cautious scenario HK$3.06, base HK$4.51, optimistic HK$5.87 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$3.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0390?
China Railway trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$4.51 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 0.2, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 0390?
The PEG ratio of China Railway is 1.25 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Railway (0390)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Railway (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.7%, debt of 1.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0390 from its 52-week high?
China Railway trades at HK$3.16, about 39% below its 52-week high of HK$5.17 and at the low of HK$3.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Railway?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Railway stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$3.16, calculated fair value HK$4.51 (+43%), Quality Score 29/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0390 calculated?
We run China Railway through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. China Railway currently trades 43 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Railway (0390)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$3.16. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.51, about +43% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Railway right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (29/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$3.06 to HK$5.87) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of China Railway (0390) come from?
Earnings per share at China Railway grew +9.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin +4.8 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Railway

How large is the market capitalisation of China Railway (0390)?
The market capitalisation of China Railway is HK$85.3B (≈ $10.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Railway (0390)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Railway is 0.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Railway (0390)?
Earnings per share at China Railway are HK$0.6600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Railway (0390)?
The dividend yield of China Railway is 5.3% (payout 25.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Railway (0390)?
The net margin of China Railway is 2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Railway (0390)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Railway is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Railway (0390)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Railway is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Railway (0390)?
The operating margin of China Railway is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Railway (0390)?
Revenue at China Railway is growing −5.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Railway (0390)?
Earnings per share at China Railway are growing −27.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Railway (0390) generate?
The free cash flow of China Railway is −31.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Railway (0390) carry?
The net debt of China Railway is 267B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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