China Railway Group (0390) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$81.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 7, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 34 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 7, 2026, revised from HK$5.29 to HK$4.85 (−8.4%) since Jul 1, 2026. Share price +5.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 36% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (29/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$3.13 to HK$6.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.70 – HK$5.18 · fair‑value band HK$3.13 – HK$6.06 · the HK$3.57 price screens below the HK$4.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
Analysis
China Railway Group (0390) currently trades at HK$3.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.85, implying the stock looks roughly 35.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Railway Group generated revenue of HK$1.1T at a net margin of 2.0%. Revenue declined 5.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.7%. Net debt stands at HK$267B. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$3.13 (bear case) to HK$6.06 (bull case); at HK$3.57, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 36%, 0390 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$17.65) versus Earnings-Based (HK$6.70). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Railway Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction and engineering contractor business in China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Engineering Construction; Design Consulting; Equipment Manufacturing; Specialty Real Estate; Asset Management; and Resource Utilization.
Full company description
China Railway Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction and engineering contractor business in China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Engineering Construction; Design Consulting; Equipment Manufacturing; Specialty Real Estate; Asset Management; and Resource Utilization. It constructs railways, highways, bridges, tunnels, urban rail transits, stations and buildings, municipal facilities, and other projects; offers consulting and planning, feasibility study, survey and design, research and development, and construction supervision of railways, highways, and municipal facilities and others; and manufactures steel structure, switch, and other mechanical products, as well as shield machines and back-up equipment, electrified equipment, and railway construction machinery. The company also develops residential, commercial, tourism, and pension real estate, as well as urban complexes; engages in the operation, maintenance, management, and asset management of infrastructure investment projects; and operates mining and provides mineral products, including concentrates of copper, cobalt, molybdenum, lead, and zinc, as well as cathode copper and cobalt hydroxide. In addition, it is involved in financial trust and management; financial services; capital investment; commodity trade; software and information technology services; talent information network services; and franchise operation. The company was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Railway Group reported revenue of HK$1.1T in FY2025 versus HK$1.1T in FY2021, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$22.9B in FY2025, compounding −4.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 839 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,815 | ₹1,994 | -48% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 346,000 KRW | 268,779 KRW | -22% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 99,000 KRW | 63,993 KRW | -35% |
| United Integrated Services Co 2404 | 1,250 TWD | 925.62 TWD | -26% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 42,550 KRW | 44,840 KRW | +5% |
| Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL | ₹232.67 | ₹61.46 | -74% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 16,240 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -60% |
| NBCC (India) Limited NBCC | ₹96.32 | ₹48.22 | -50% |
| Cemindia Projects Limited CEMPRO | ₹1,330 | ₹730.69 | -45% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 92,700 KRW | 20,172 KRW | -78% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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