China Telecom (0728) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Telecom stock HK$8.13, price HK$4.42, upside +83.9%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 41% above the price (HK$6.22).›
Quality 59/100›
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +5.3 %/yr in CNY)›
Thin margins · 5.6% net margin (TTM)›
Falling price (downtrend)›
Narrow moat39/100
Thin data›
Main risks:
🚩Price drop: Nine-month results with revenue and profit both down year on year🚩Revenue and profit decline due to VAT rate change and low-price competition
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.78 – HK$6.03 · fair‑value band HK$6.22 – HK$10.07 · the HK$4.42 price screens below the HK$8.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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China Telecom Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile communications, wireline and satellite communications, internet access, cloud computing and computing power, AI, big data, quantum, ICT integration in the People's Republic of China.
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The company offers mobile communications; wireline and smart family; industrial digitalisation; and other services.
The company also develops and deploys industry-specific large models and digital platforms, including the Xingchen platform series, to support digital transformation in sectors such as manufacturing, education, healthcare, government, and smart city management.
The company was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Beijing, China. China Telecom Corporation Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Telecom Group Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
China Telecom (0728) currently trades at HK$4.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.13, implying the stock looks roughly 46% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$11.45 per share, and 24 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$4.42 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$3.25, and 2 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$6.22 (bear) to HK$10.07 (bull), the price of HK$4.42 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Telecom reported revenue of 510B CNY in FY2025 versus 440B CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was 32.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding +5.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$404B (≈ $51.6B) Large · P/E ratio 12.1 · P/S ratio 0.68 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.4000 · Dividend yield 6.7% · Net margin 5.6% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 49% fair-value upside, at 84%, 0728 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$6.22Fair Value HK$8.13BullHK$10.07
Price HK$4.42 · Upside +83.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0913 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.5% vs 4.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.2% a year for the price and −0.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Vast infrastructure scale underpins China Telecom while low returns on equity and regulated pricing limit any durable competitive edge.
Main risk: State ownership prioritizing policy goals over returns would suppress profitability and hinder growth in core telecom services.
China Telecom just reported nine-month results with revenue and profit both down year on year, driven by a VAT rate change and softer demand in traditional services amid low-price competition. Comparable core revenue held steady while intelligence and AI-related income continued to expand. Our models view the stock as undervalued. Will the shift toward Token operations and AI services deliver visible offsets to legacy pressures within the next few quarters, or will weak consumer and enterprise spending weigh longer?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 251 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+83.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.1% · Below median
Return on assets3.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−3.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Telecom Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0728
Frequently asked questions
Is China Telecom (0728) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.13 versus a price of HK$4.42, about +84% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0728?
Our model-based fair value for China Telecom is HK$8.13 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$4.42.
What is the quality score of 0728?
China Telecom has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Telecom (0728)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$8.13 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$6.22, optimistic scenario HK$10.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Telecom stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$8.13, about +84% upside versus a price of HK$4.42 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$6.22, optimistic scenario HK$10.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Telecom (0728)?
China Telecom reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 510B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does China Telecom pay a dividend?
China Telecom currently shows a dividend yield of 6.68% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of China Telecom (0728) and when is the ex-dividend date?
China Telecom pays a dividend of HK$0.295 per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 2, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2003. The payout ratio is 75.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.15 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into China Telecom (0728)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Telecom would have to grow free cash flow by -18.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.3 % per year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0728 use?
Our models discount China Telecom at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Telecom that is -18.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Telecom (0728) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Telecom grew +5.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -18.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Telecom (0728) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Telecom (-18.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Telecom (0728)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.25 %: that much free cash flow China Telecom produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Telecom (0728)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Telecom it is HK$8.13 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of HK$4.42. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is China Telecom stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, 0728 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$4.42, fair value HK$8.13, a gap of about +84% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0728?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$4.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$8.13). For China Telecom the two are HK$3.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Telecom worth?
The market values China Telecom at about HK$404B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is HK$4.42; our models calculate a fair value of HK$8.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0728?
Our models span a range for China Telecom: cautious scenario HK$6.22, base HK$8.13, optimistic HK$10.07 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price HK$4.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0728?
China Telecom trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.1 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$8.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.4, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 2.5.
What is the PEG ratio of 0728?
The PEG ratio of China Telecom is 3.44 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 12, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Telecom (0728)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Telecom (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 6.1%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0728 from its 52-week high?
China Telecom trades at HK$4.42, about 22% below its 52-week high of HK$5.70 and 8% above the low of HK$4.11 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$8.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Telecom?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Telecom stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price HK$4.42, calculated fair value HK$8.13 (+84%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0728 calculated?
We run China Telecom through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$8.13 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. China Telecom currently trades 46% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Telecom (0728)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was HK$4.42. Our model-based fair value is HK$8.13, about +84% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Telecom right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$6.22). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of China Telecom (0728) come from?
Earnings per share at China Telecom grew +4.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.4 %, EBIT margin −1.5 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Telecom
How large is the market capitalisation of China Telecom (0728)?
The market capitalisation of China Telecom is HK$404B (≈ $51.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Telecom (0728)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Telecom is 0.68 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Telecom (0728)?
Earnings per share at China Telecom are HK$0.4000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Telecom (0728)?
The dividend yield of China Telecom is 6.7% (payout 73.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Telecom (0728)?
The net margin of China Telecom is 5.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Telecom (0728)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Telecom is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Telecom (0728)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Telecom is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Telecom (0728)?
The operating margin of China Telecom is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Telecom (0728)?
Revenue at China Telecom is growing −3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Telecom (0728)?
Earnings per share at China Telecom are growing −14.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Telecom (0728) hold?
China Telecom holds more cash than debt, 38.6B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 12, 2026