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China National Culture Group Ltd (0745) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China National Culture Group Ltd stock HK$0.70, price HK$5.50, upside -87.3%, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value 30%+ above price?No
  2. Quality 50+?No
  3. In an uptrend?Yes
  4. Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Communication Services HK · ISIN KYG2116P1384

CN China National Culture Group Ltd logo Thin data Oct 28, 2026

China National Culture Group Ltd

0745 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 87% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 25.2% net margin (TTM)
Quality 47/100
Moderate moat 59/100 · thin data
Fair value HK$0.6970 · Strongly overvalued (−87.3%)
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −8.5 %/yr in HKD)
High debt
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/11)
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$6.90 HK$0.0982 Fair Value HK$0.6970 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0982 – HK$6.90 · fair‑value band HK$0.5185 – HK$0.8670 · the HK$5.50 price screens above the HK$0.6970 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 5 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 28, 2026.

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Company profile

China National Culture Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides advertising and value-added services through mobile devices primarily in Hong Kong. The company operates through Advertising and E-commerce segments.

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It also produces and distributes films and other related services; and sells products through Internet, website, mobile application, and electronic social platforms.

In addition, the company is involved in the food and beverages industry advertising business and movie production; and provision of communication marketing platform services.

The company was formerly known as China Railsmedia Corporation Limited and changed its name to China National Culture Group Limited in March 2014. China National Culture Group Limited was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Admiralty, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

China National Culture Group Ltd (0745) currently trades at HK$5.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6970, 87.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$0.9600 per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the HK$5.50 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.2100, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.5185 (bear) to HK$0.8670 (bull), the price of HK$5.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

China National Culture Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$50.0M in FY2026 versus HK$67.5M in FY2022, a compound −7.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$12.6M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap HK$1.3B (≈ $165M) Micro · P/E ratio 113.7 · P/S ratio 28.7 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0700 · Net margin 25.2% · Return on equity 24.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −21.1% · Operating margin −22.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 919% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −87%, 0745 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.5185 Fair Value HK$0.6970 Bull HK$0.8670
Price HK$5.50 · Upside -87.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0407 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income HK$0.2500 HK$0.3000 HK$0.4000 68
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.6700 HK$0.9600 HK$1.24 65
Graham-Dodd HK$0.3700 HK$0.8600 HK$1.11 63
All 8 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.3700 HK$0.8600 HK$1.11 63
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.1500 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2700 55
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.8900 HK$1.18 HK$1.48 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.5600 HK$0.7500 HK$0.9300 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.6100 HK$0.8200 HK$1.02 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1600 HK$0.2400 HK$0.3000 55
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.2500 HK$0.3000 HK$0.4000 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.6700 HK$0.9600 HK$1.24 65

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 61
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 40
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 35
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 85
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 18
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 80
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 89
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 22/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−34.1% (2021) → −5.2% (2026)

0745 screens overvalued: fair value 87% below the price. Compare with AppLovin Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 184 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −87.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 24.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets 12.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 25.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −22.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 25.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.65× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 113.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B 21.96× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 25.86× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 15
PAST (return on equity)97 · sector 8
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 57

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
The Trade Desk, Inc TTD $12.77 $47.81 +274% vs 0745
Publicis Groupe S.A PUB €99.66 €145.63 +46% vs 0745
Omnicom Group OMC $78.73 $113.06 +44% vs 0745
Ströer SE SAX €36.92 €41.69 +13% vs 0745
Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 ¥5.18 ¥5.71 +10% vs 0745
AppLovin Corporation APP $260.74 $286.81 +10% vs 0745
Magnite, Inc MGNI $21.62 $23.78 +10% vs 0745
JCDecaux SE DEC €25.02 €20.99 −16% vs 0745
Easy Click Worldwide Network Technology Co 301171 ¥30.62 ¥7.22 −76% vs 0745
Leo Group 002131 ¥4.12 ¥0.6000 −85% vs 0745

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China National Culture Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.6970 −87%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China National Culture Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0745

Frequently asked questions

Is China National Culture Group Ltd (0745) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.6970 versus a price of HK$5.50, about −87% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0745?
Our model-based fair value for China National Culture Group Ltd is HK$0.6970 (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$5.50.
What is the quality score of 0745?
China National Culture Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China National Culture Group Ltd (0745)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.6970 (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.5185, optimistic scenario HK$0.8670. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China National Culture Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.6970, about −87% upside versus a price of HK$5.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.5185, optimistic scenario HK$0.8670. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China National Culture Group Ltd (0745)?
China National Culture Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$50.0M (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China National Culture Group Ltd (0745)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China National Culture Group Ltd it is HK$0.6970 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of HK$5.50. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China National Culture Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 0745 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$5.50, fair value HK$0.6970, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0745?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$5.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.6970). For China National Culture Group Ltd the two are HK$4.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China National Culture Group Ltd worth?
The market values China National Culture Group Ltd at about HK$1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is HK$5.50; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.6970 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0745?
Our models span a range for China National Culture Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.5185, base HK$0.6970, optimistic HK$0.8670 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price HK$5.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0745?
China National Culture Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 113.7 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.6970 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 22.0, P/S 25.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of China National Culture Group Ltd (0745)?
Balance-sheet figures for China National Culture Group Ltd (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 24.4%, debt of 3.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0745 from its 52-week high?
China National Culture Group Ltd trades at HK$5.50, about 20% below its 52-week high of HK$6.90 and 919% above the low of HK$0.5400 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.6970 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China National Culture Group Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China National Culture Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price HK$5.50, calculated fair value HK$0.6970 (−87%), Quality Score 47/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0745 calculated?
We run China National Culture Group Ltd through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.6970, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. China National Culture Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China National Culture Group Ltd (0745)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was HK$5.50. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.6970, about −87% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China National Culture Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.8670). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of China National Culture Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of China National Culture Group Ltd (0745)?
The market capitalisation of China National Culture Group Ltd is HK$1.3B (≈ $165M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China National Culture Group Ltd (0745)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China National Culture Group Ltd is 28.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China National Culture Group Ltd (0745)?
Earnings per share at China National Culture Group Ltd are HK$0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 113.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China National Culture Group Ltd (0745)?
The net margin of China National Culture Group Ltd is 25.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China National Culture Group Ltd (0745)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China National Culture Group Ltd is 24.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China National Culture Group Ltd (0745)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China National Culture Group Ltd is −21.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China National Culture Group Ltd (0745)?
The operating margin of China National Culture Group Ltd is −22.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China National Culture Group Ltd (0745)?
Revenue at China National Culture Group Ltd is growing +25.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does China National Culture Group Ltd (0745) generate?
The free cash flow of China National Culture Group Ltd is −HK$955K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does China National Culture Group Ltd (0745) hold?
China National Culture Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$5.2M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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