The Trade Desk, Inc (TTD) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $9.3B
The Trade Desk, Inc
TTD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −7.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 17% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($15.57 to $38.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $15.57 (bear) to $38.64 (bull), base $20.76. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 55/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.79 – $139.51 · fair‑value band $15.57 – $38.64 · the $17.67 price screens below the $20.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
The Trade Desk, Inc (TTD) currently trades at $17.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.76, implying the stock looks roughly 17.5% undervalued today. We read business quality at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, The Trade Desk, Inc generated revenue of $3.0B at a net margin of 14.6%. Revenue grew 11.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $222M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $15.57 (bear case) to $38.64 (bull case); at $17.67, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 17%, TTD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($42.76) versus Dividend Discount ($1.58). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company creates, manages, and optimizes digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, channels and devices, including CTV and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers …
Full company description
The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company creates, manages, and optimizes digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, channels and devices, including CTV and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers and digital-out-of-home devices. It provides data and other value-added services. It serves advertising agencies, advertisers, and other service providers for agencies or advertisers. The Trade Desk, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Trade Desk, Inc reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was $443M in FY2025, compounding +33.9%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Stock Market Today, Aug. 6: Trade Desk Plummets After Hours on Weak Q2 Results
- Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Sweetgreen, Airbnb, DraftKings, Trade Desk and more
- Magnite Jumps 18%, AppLovin Crashes 20%, Trade Desk Slides 6% as Traders Separate Ad-Tech Winners From Losers
Peer Group
Advertising Agencies · 201 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| AppLovin Corporation APP | $506.98 | $181.37 | -64% |
| Publicis Groupe S.A PUB | €87.16 | €146.36 | +68% |
| Omnicom Group OMC | $80.75 | $99.84 | +24% |
| Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 | ¥5.00 | ¥4.08 | -18% |
| BlueFocus Intelligent Communications Group 300058 | ¥13.81 | ¥1.50 | -89% |
| JCDecaux SE DEC | €21.28 | €20.99 | -1% |
| WPP plc WPP | $18.13 | $18.56 | +2% |
| Easy Click Worldwide Network Technology Co 301171 | ¥28.85 | ¥5.62 | -81% |
| Magnite, Inc MGNI | $19.91 | $17.17 | -14% |
| Mobvista Inc 1860 | HK$11.15 | HK$6.43 | -42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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