Trade Desk Inc (TTD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Trade Desk Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Communication Services · US · Market cap $6.8B · ISIN US88339J1051
At a glance
TDTrade Desk IncTTD · US
Price$14.02
Fair Value$29.07
Upside+107.4%
Quality77/100
A strong business, trading 52% below our fair value of $29.07.
As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Trade Desk Inc is $29.07 per share against a price of $14.02, so the fair value sits 107% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +28.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 14.6% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/15)
!Moderate moat 63/100
!Weak on dividend: 10 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange $21.80 to $36.52
Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +1.6% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The rarer combination: high quality (77/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($21.80). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.03 – $139.51 · fair‑value band $21.80 – $36.52 · the $14.02 price screens below the $29.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
Trade Desk Inc (TTD) currently trades at $14.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.07, implying the stock looks roughly 51.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $48.16 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the $14.02 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.90, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Trade Desk Inc generated revenue of $3.0B at a net margin of 14.6%. Revenue grew 11.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $222M. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026
Scenario range: $21.80 (bear) to $36.52 (bull), the price of $14.02 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 107%, TTD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6076 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio22.4as of Jul 16, 2026
P/S ratio3.43P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$0.8800price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.4
Dividend yield0.5%payout 7.6%
Net margin15.3%FY2025
Return on equity16.7%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)5.4%avg 5y
Operating margin9.7%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$3.0BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+11.8%3y avg +22.4%
EPS growth (YoY)−20.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow$796MFY2025
Net cash$222MFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality77/100
Of which business quality 76
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12
Profitability56
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow94
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength73
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility31
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum5
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance97
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company creates, manages, and optimizes digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, channels and devices, including CTV and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers …
Full company description
The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company creates, manages, and optimizes digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, channels and devices, including CTV and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers and digital-out-of-home devices. It provides data and other value-added services. It serves advertising agencies, advertisers, and other service providers for agencies or advertisers. The Trade Desk, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Trade Desk Inc reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was $443M in FY2025, compounding +33.9%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$2.9B
Latest YoY
+18.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+28.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (11Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+46.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
≈ +27.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+27.1%
Dividend yield0.5%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 27.1% vs 10Y 39.9%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17.2% (2020) → 20.3% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop55% (2022) · in USD
⚠ Final year 2025 sits 157% above trend (one-off), rate approximate
Revenue+24.7%/yr
FY21$1.2B
FY22$1.6B
FY23$1.9B
FY24$2.4B
FY25$2.9B
Net income+33.9%/yr
FY21$138M
FY22$53.4M
FY23$179M
FY24$393M
FY25$443M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+35.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share+30.6 %
of which total revenue +39.6 % · buybacks/dilution −6.5 %
EBIT margin−5.1 %
Tax rate+3.9 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+5.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+102% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiples vs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)22.4× · Pricier than median
P/B3.73× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.12× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF11.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.2× · Pricier than median
PEG0.90× · Cheaper than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Trade Desk Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years-7.0 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+28.2 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+8.2 %
FCF yield on price11.76 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.8 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 25
FUTURE59· sector 6
PAST67· sector 8
HEALTH99· sector 98
DIVIDEND10· sector 58
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).
Is Trade Desk Inc (TTD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $29.07 versus a price of $14.02, about +107% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TTD?
Our model-based fair value for Trade Desk Inc is $29.07 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.02.
What is the quality score of TTD?
Trade Desk Inc has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $29.07 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.80, optimistic scenario $36.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trade Desk Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $29.07, about +107% upside versus a price of $14.02 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $21.80, optimistic scenario $36.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
Trade Desk Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TTD?
The net profit margin of Trade Desk Inc is about 14.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Trade Desk Inc pay a dividend?
Trade Desk Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Trade Desk Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -7.0 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.8 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.2 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TTD use?
Our models discount Trade Desk Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.04, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trade Desk Inc it is $29.07 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026), against a price of $14.02. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Trade Desk Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 8, 2026, TTD trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.02, fair value $29.07, a gap of about +107% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TTD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($29.07). For Trade Desk Inc the two are $15.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trade Desk Inc worth?
The market values Trade Desk Inc at about $6.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 8, 2026). Per share that is $14.02; our models calculate a fair value of $29.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TTD?
Our models span a range for Trade Desk Inc: cautious scenario $21.80, base $29.07, optimistic $36.52 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026, price $14.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TTD?
Trade Desk Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.4 (as of Sep 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $29.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 3.7, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 12.2.
What is the PEG ratio of TTD?
The PEG ratio of Trade Desk Inc is 0.90 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trade Desk Inc (as of Sep 8, 2026): return on equity 16.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Trade Desk Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trade Desk Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 8, 2026: price $14.02, calculated fair value $29.07 (+107%), Quality Score 77/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TTD calculated?
We run Trade Desk Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $29.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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Trade Desk Inc
TTD · US