Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd stock HK$14.72, price HK$8.39, upside +75.4%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$5.34 – HK$25.55 · fair‑value band HK$10.88 – HK$18.55 · the HK$8.39 price screens below the HK$14.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells float, automobile, construction, and other glass products for commercial and industrial applications. The company operates through three segments: Float Glass, Automobile Glass, and Architectural Glass.
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It provides automobile rubber and plastic components; manufactures electronic glass, plastic products, and low-e products; trades in automobile glass; and engages in the research and trading of glass, as well as mining activities.
The company also offers logistic and related services; supply chain services; sells solar power; automatic machines for solar glass factories and other related industries; and holds properties and car parks.
It serves automobile glass manufacturing, wholesale, and distribution; automobile repairs and maintenance; car manufacturing; curtain wall design, engineering, and installing; architectural and furniture glass manufacturing; electronic, industrial, and household appliance manufacturing; and float glass manufacture, wholesale, and distribution companies.
The company sells its products in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, as well as countries in Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and the Americas.
Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868) currently trades at HK$8.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$14.72, implying the stock looks roughly 43% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$17.71 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$8.39 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$1.57, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$10.88 (bear) to HK$18.55 (bull), the price of HK$8.39 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 23.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 30.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.6%/yr. Reported net income was 3.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding −28.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$37.2B (≈ $4.7B) Mid · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 1.43 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 16.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 75%, 0868 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$10.88Fair Value HK$14.72BullHK$18.55
Price HK$8.39 · Upside +75.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−10.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.3% vs 2.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.3% a year for the price and +2.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (12 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 267 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+75.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.0% · Above median
Return on assets5.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)14.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)16.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−3.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
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Is Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$14.72 versus a price of HK$8.39, about +75% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0868?
Our model-based fair value for Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd is HK$14.72 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$8.39.
What is the quality score of 0868?
Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$14.72 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$10.88, optimistic scenario HK$18.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$14.72, about +75% upside versus a price of HK$8.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$10.88, optimistic scenario HK$18.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 20.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.35% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd pays a dividend of HK$0.365 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 13, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2005. The payout ratio is 14.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 10.26 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -5.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.5 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0868 use?
Our models discount Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.22, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd that is -5.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd grew +4.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -5.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (-5.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.85 %: that much free cash flow Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd it is HK$14.72 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of HK$8.39. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, 0868 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$8.39, fair value HK$14.72, a gap of about +75% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0868?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$8.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$14.72). For Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd the two are HK$6.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd at about HK$37.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is HK$8.39; our models calculate a fair value of HK$14.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0868?
Our models span a range for Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$10.88, base HK$14.72, optimistic HK$18.55 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price HK$8.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0868?
Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$14.72 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 0.8, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
What is the PEG ratio of 0868?
The PEG ratio of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd is 1.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0868 from its 52-week high?
Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd trades at HK$8.39, about 25% below its 52-week high of HK$11.24 and 8% above the low of HK$7.77 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$14.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, Vulcan Materials Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price HK$8.39, calculated fair value HK$14.72 (+75%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0868 calculated?
We run Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$14.72 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd currently trades 43% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was HK$8.39. Our model-based fair value is HK$14.72, about +75% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$10.88). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868) come from?
Earnings per share at Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd grew +6.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.9 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
The market capitalisation of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd is HK$37.2B (≈ $4.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd is 1.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
The dividend yield of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd is 4.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
The net margin of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd is 13.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd is 11.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
The operating margin of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
Revenue at Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd is growing −3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868)?
Earnings per share at Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd are growing +14.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd (0868) carry?
The net debt of Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd is 2.3B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026