Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors
Data-driven stock valuation
Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free
Discover now →
Carlsberg A/S (0AI4) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Carlsberg A/S DKK 835, price DKK 862, upside -3.1%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
- Add to watchlist
CA
Thin data
Sep 29, 2026
Carlsberg A/S
0AI4 · LSENeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value kr 835.44 · Fairly valued (−3.1%)
✓Quality 67/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +2.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt
·3.4% dividend yield · Safety not assessed
!Moderate moat 58/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Watch Carlsberg A/S for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.
Watch for free
Pro now: $1 first month
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 630.13 – kr 1,046 · fair‑value band kr 619.82 – kr 1,044 · the kr 862.10 price screens above the kr 835.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Carlsberg A/S produces and markets beer, soft drinks, and other beverage products in Western Europe, Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, India, and internationally. The company was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Carlsberg A/S (0AI4) currently trades at kr 862.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 835.44, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.2%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 829.66 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 862.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 161.49, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 619.82 (bear) to kr 1,044 (bull), the price of kr 862.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Carlsberg A/S reported revenue of 66.6B DKK in FY2021 versus 60.7B DKK in FY2017, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was 6.8B DKK in FY2021, compounding +52.7%/yr from FY2017. FY2017 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 157B DKK (≈ $23.7B) · P/S ratio 1.76 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 10.3% · Return on equity 22.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4% · Operating margin 13.2% · Revenue (TTM) 89.1B DKK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −3%, 0AI4 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 619.82
Fair Value kr 835.44
Bull kr 1,044
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
kr 685.29
kr 1,025
kr 1,512
76
Growth DCF
kr 707.16
kr 1,023
kr 1,454
75
EPV
kr 406.81
kr 486.86
kr 556.90
74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
kr 685.29
kr 1,025
kr 1,512
76
5Y Revenue Exit
kr 431.10
kr 634.74
kr 880.05
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
kr 620.48
kr 972.22
kr 1,363
71
5Y P/E Exit
kr 531.77
kr 814.14
kr 1,093
68
10Y Revenue Exit
kr 508.26
kr 708.28
kr 947.37
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
kr 637.77
kr 936.63
kr 1,300
65
10Y P/E Exit
kr 582.28
kr 829.66
kr 1,103
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
kr 255.36
kr 606.58
kr 781.79
63
PEG = 1.0
kr 105.41
kr 150.59
kr 195.76
55
EPV
kr 406.81
kr 486.86
kr 556.90
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
kr 170.69
kr 297.92
kr 456.24
64
DDM Multi-Stage
kr 170.69
kr 253.78
kr 345.21
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
kr 591.45
kr 788.61
kr 985.76
63
P/S Multiple
kr 438.61
kr 584.82
kr 731.02
58
P/B Multiple
kr 478.80
kr 638.39
kr 797.99
55
EV/EBIT
kr 693.86
kr 949.65
kr 1,205
66
EV/EBITDA
kr 676.80
kr 926.90
kr 1,177
67
EV/Revenue
kr 310.29
kr 474.77
kr 639.25
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
kr 120.52
kr 161.49
kr 241.03
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
kr 707.16
kr 1,023
kr 1,454
75
Rev-Margin DCF
kr 431.10
kr 646.21
kr 881.09
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
kr 247.50
kr 306.95
kr 429.76
72
ROIC Compounder
kr 425.85
kr 542.19
kr 671.81
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
kr 449.03
kr 641.47
kr 833.91
65
Notify me when 0AI4 reaches fair value
Put 0AI4 on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
67/100
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Profitability
46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
88
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
56
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.1% (2017) → 16.5% (2021)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed
Watch 0AI4, get fair value alerts →
Compare Carlsberg A/S with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Alcohol
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI | €64.56 | €61.20 | −5% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €69.66 | €69.18 | −1% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX | $118.85 | $28.57 | −76% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €65.30 | €64.09 | −2% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $112.99 | $183.71 | +63% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥49.89 | ¥63.71 | +28% |
| Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP | $35.95 | $79.18 | +120% |
| Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 | ¥10.78 | ¥11.10 | +3% |
| United Breweries Limited UBL | ₹1,158 | ₹141.82 | −88% |
| Royal Unibrew A/S RBREW | kr 411.40 | kr 662.99 | +61% |
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →
All undervalued stocks
TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
🥇 Backtested Best
🏆 Big Names
⭐ Top Rated
💎 Quality on Sale
🚀 Profitable Growth
🧊 Quality Compounders
💵 Dividend Stars
📈 Strong Momentum
📉 Fallen Angels
⚖️ Deeply Undervalued
🔍 Small-Cap Gems
🏰 Moat at a Fair Price
💼 Insider Buying
🎩 Buffett-Style Quality
📚 Peter Lynch GARP
🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula
🛡️ Graham Defensive
Discover tools
Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector
Compare toolTwo stocks side by side
Extrinsic Value Calculator…Calculator with industry benchmark
Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Calculator with industry benchmark
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
Frequently asked questions
Is Carlsberg A/S (0AI4) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 835.44 versus a price of kr 862.10, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0AI4?
Our model-based fair value for Carlsberg A/S is kr 835.44 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 862.10.
What is the quality score of 0AI4?
Carlsberg A/S has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carlsberg A/S (0AI4)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 835.44 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 619.82, optimistic scenario kr 1,044. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carlsberg A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 835.44, about −3% upside versus a price of kr 862.10 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 619.82, optimistic scenario kr 1,044. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carlsberg A/S (0AI4)?
Carlsberg A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 89.1B DKK (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Carlsberg A/S pay a dividend?
Carlsberg A/S currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Carlsberg A/S (0AI4)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carlsberg A/S it is kr 835.44 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of kr 862.10. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Carlsberg A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 0AI4 trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 862.10, fair value kr 835.44, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0AI4?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 862.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 835.44). For Carlsberg A/S the two are kr 26.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carlsberg A/S worth?
The market values Carlsberg A/S at about 157B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is kr 862.10; our models calculate a fair value of kr 835.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0AI4?
Our models span a range for Carlsberg A/S: cautious scenario kr 619.82, base kr 835.44, optimistic kr 1,044 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price kr 862.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carlsberg A/S (0AI4)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carlsberg A/S (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 22.8%, debt of 0.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0AI4 from its 52-week high?
Carlsberg A/S trades at kr 862.10, about 11% below its 52-week high of kr 969.02 and 20% above the low of kr 716.10 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 835.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carlsberg A/S?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Heineken Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carlsberg A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price kr 862.10, calculated fair value kr 835.44 (−3%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0AI4 calculated?
We run Carlsberg A/S through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 835.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Carlsberg A/S itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Carlsberg A/S (0AI4)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 862.10. Our model-based fair value is kr 835.44, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Carlsberg A/S right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Carlsberg A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of Carlsberg A/S (0AI4)?
The market capitalisation of Carlsberg A/S is 157B DKK (≈ $23.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Carlsberg A/S (0AI4)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Carlsberg A/S is 1.76 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Carlsberg A/S (0AI4)?
The dividend yield of Carlsberg A/S is 3.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Carlsberg A/S (0AI4)?
The net margin of Carlsberg A/S is 10.3% (fiscal year 2021). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Carlsberg A/S (0AI4)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Carlsberg A/S is 22.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Carlsberg A/S (0AI4)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Carlsberg A/S is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Carlsberg A/S (0AI4)?
The operating margin of Carlsberg A/S is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Carlsberg A/S (0AI4)?
Revenue at Carlsberg A/S is growing +18.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Carlsberg A/S (0AI4)?
Earnings per share at Carlsberg A/S are growing −4.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
Free · no account needed
Watch Carlsberg A/S in the live analysis
One click puts Carlsberg A/S on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.