AES Corp. (0H6G) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of AES Corp. $11.61, price $14.91, upside -22.1%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.22 – $25.24 · fair‑value band $9.76 – $21.18 · the $14.91 price screens above the $11.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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The AES Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a power generation and utility company. It operates through four segments: Renewables, Utilities, Energy Infrastructure, and New Energy Technologies.
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The AES Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a power generation and utility company. It operates through four segments: Renewables, Utilities, Energy Infrastructure, and New Energy Technologies. The company owns and/or operates power plants to generate and sell power to customers, such as utilities, industrial users, and other intermediaries; owns and/or operates utilities to generate or purchase, distribute, transmit, and sell electricity to end-user customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental sectors; and generates and sells electricity on the wholesale market, as well as investments in technologies to support leading-edge greener energy solutions. It uses various fuels and technologies to generate electricity, such as solar, hydro, wind, coal, and gas, as well as renewables comprising energy storage and landfill gas. The company owns and/or operates a generation portfolio of approximately 34,740 megawatts and distributes power to 2.7 million customers. The company operates in the United States, Chile, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Mexico, Bulgaria, Panama, Colombia, Argentina, Vietnam, Jordan, Puerto Rico, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Applied Energy Services, Inc. and changed its name to The AES Corporation in April 2000. The AES Corporation was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Arlington, Virginia.
Stock analysis
AES Corp. (0H6G) currently trades at $14.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.61, 22.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $24.36 per share, and 6 of the 14 models we run sit above the $14.91 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $4.45, and 8 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $9.76 (bear) to $21.18 (bull), the price of $14.91 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
AES Corp. reported revenue of $12.2B in FY2025 versus $11.1B in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was $949M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $10.6B · EPS (TTM) $−0.2230 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin 7.8% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% · Operating margin 18.7% · Revenue (TTM) $12.5B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −22%, 0H6G screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.76Fair Value $11.61Bull $21.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.4% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+43.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+38.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.38.7% vs 6.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 17%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Renewable Utilities” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5298 stocks
Beats the sector median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−22.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.3% · Below median
Return on assets2.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)10.8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)18.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.67× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AES Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0H6G
Frequently asked questions
Is AES Corp. (0H6G) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.61 versus a price of $14.91, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0H6G?
Our model-based fair value for AES Corp. is $11.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.91.
What is the quality score of 0H6G?
AES Corp. has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AES Corp. (0H6G)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.76, optimistic scenario $21.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AES Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.61, about −22% upside versus a price of $14.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.76, optimistic scenario $21.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AES Corp. (0H6G)?
AES Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does AES Corp. pay a dividend?
AES Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.72% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AES Corp. (0H6G)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AES Corp. it is $11.61 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $14.91. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AES Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0H6G trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.91, fair value $11.61, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0H6G?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.61). For AES Corp. the two are $3.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AES Corp. worth?
The market values AES Corp. at about $10.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $14.91; our models calculate a fair value of $11.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0H6G?
Our models span a range for AES Corp.: cautious scenario $9.76, base $11.61, optimistic $21.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $14.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of AES Corp. (0H6G)?
Balance-sheet figures for AES Corp. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 2.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0H6G from its 52-week high?
AES Corp. trades at $14.91, about 13% below its 52-week high of $17.10 and 14% above the low of $13.05 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AES Corp.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value E4U a.s. invests in and, REALECO, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AES Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $14.91, calculated fair value $11.61 (−22%), Quality Score 34/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0H6G calculated?
We run AES Corp. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AES Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AES Corp. (0H6G)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $14.91. Our model-based fair value is $11.61, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AES Corp. right now?
Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($9.76 to $21.18) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of AES Corp. (0H6G) come from?
Earnings per share at AES Corp. grew +6.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.2 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate +6.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AES Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of AES Corp. (0H6G)?
The market capitalisation of AES Corp. is $10.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of AES Corp. (0H6G)?
Earnings per share at AES Corp. are $−0.2230. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AES Corp. (0H6G)?
The dividend yield of AES Corp. is 4.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AES Corp. (0H6G)?
The net margin of AES Corp. is 7.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AES Corp. (0H6G)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AES Corp. is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AES Corp. (0H6G)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AES Corp. is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AES Corp. (0H6G)?
The operating margin of AES Corp. is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AES Corp. (0H6G)?
Revenue at AES Corp. is growing +8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AES Corp. (0H6G)?
Earnings per share at AES Corp. are growing +951% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AES Corp. (0H6G) generate?
The free cash flow of AES Corp. is −$1.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AES Corp. (0H6G) carry?
The net debt of AES Corp. is $28.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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