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BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (0HKP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company $14.04, price $44.83, upside -68.7%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · GB · ISIN US0556221044

BP Some data Oct 2, 2026

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company

0HKP · LSE

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $14.04 · Strongly overvalued (−68.7%)
!Quality 49/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −12.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.7% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt
✓0.7% dividend yield · Cash covered
!Narrow moat 36/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$47.42 $17.77 Fair Value $14.04 May 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $17.77 – $47.42 · fair‑value band $11.55 – $16.65 · the $44.83 price screens above the $14.04 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses.

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BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses. The company also offers aviation fuel products and services, such as jet fuel; aviation gasoline; UL91 aviation fuel; and sustainable aviation fuel. In addition, it engages in the convenience and retail fuel; EV charging; Castrol lubricants and fluids; B2B; midstream; crude oil production; refining and oil trading; and bioenergy businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, (0HKP) currently trades at $44.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.04, 68.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $14.73 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the $44.83 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.08, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $11.55 (bear) to $16.65 (bull), the price of $44.83 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, reported revenue of $161B in FY2020 versus $183B in FY2016, a compound −3.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$20.3B in FY2020.

Key figures

EPS (TTM) $−5.26 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin −12.6% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2% · Operating margin 15.5% · Revenue (TTM) $193B · Revenue growth (YoY) +11.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −69%, 0HKP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $11.55 Fair Value $14.04 Bull $16.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $16.93 $23.86 $36.30 76
Growth DCF $17.73 $24.41 $35.47 75
5Y Revenue Exit $9.28 $12.52 $17.20 70
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $16.93 $23.86 $36.30 76
5Y Revenue Exit $9.28 $12.52 $17.20 70
10Y Revenue Exit $12.08 $14.73 $17.40 65
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.91 $2.08 $2.34 67
DDM Multi-Stage $1.91 $2.36 $2.98 65
Multiples
EV/Revenue $4.76 $7.66 $10.56 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.78 $2.39 $3.56 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $17.73 $24.41 $35.47 75
Rev-Margin DCF $9.28 $12.98 $17.73 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 10
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 93
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 38
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 79
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−42.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.6% (2016) → −13.6% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

0HKP screens overvalued: fair value 69% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →

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Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 25.28 SAR 20.14 SAR −20%
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $162.75 $90.40 −44%
Chevron Corporation CVX $204.38 $92.05 −55%
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥11.21 ¥15.47 +38%
TotalEnergies SE TTE €74.51 €70.97 −5%
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PBR $20.37 $28.71 +41%
Equinor ASA EQNR kr 398.40 kr 345.87 −13%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 ¥5.28 ¥3.74 −29%
Suncor Energy Inc SU $67.87 $70.17 +3%
Imperial Oil Limited IMO $122.34 $94.61 −23%

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BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, · Fair Value
$14.04 −69%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0HKP

Frequently asked questions

Is BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (0HKP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.04 versus a price of $44.83, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0HKP?
Our model-based fair value for BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is $14.04 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $44.83.
What is the quality score of 0HKP?
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (0HKP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.04 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.55, optimistic scenario $16.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.04, about −69% upside versus a price of $44.83 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.55, optimistic scenario $16.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (0HKP)?
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $193B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, pay a dividend?
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.74% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (0HKP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, it is $14.04 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $44.83. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 0HKP trades above its calculated fair value: price $44.83, fair value $14.04, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0HKP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($44.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.04). For BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, the two are $30.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0HKP?
Our models span a range for BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company,: cautious scenario $11.55, base $14.04, optimistic $16.65 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $44.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0HKP from its 52-week high?
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, trades at $44.83, about 5% below its 52-week high of $47.42 and 49% above the low of $30.06 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company,?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $44.83, calculated fair value $14.04 (−69%), Quality Score 49/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0HKP calculated?
We run BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (0HKP)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $44.83. Our model-based fair value is $14.04, about −69% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company,

What are the earnings per share of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (0HKP)?
Earnings per share at BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, are $−5.26. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (0HKP)?
The dividend yield of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is 0.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (0HKP)?
The net margin of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is −12.6% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (0HKP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (0HKP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is 0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (0HKP)?
The operating margin of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (0HKP)?
Revenue at BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is growing +11.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company (0HKP)?
Earnings per share at BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, are growing +475% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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