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Baozun Inc (0HLU) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Baozun Inc $4.48, price $3.13, upside +43.1%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Cyclical · GB · ISIN US06684L1035

BI Some data Sep 23, 2026

Baozun Inc

0HLU · LSE

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value $4.48 · Undervalued (+43.1%)
!Quality 59/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +5.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.8% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 17/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$3.20 $2.10 Fair Value $4.48 Dec 2025 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

10‑month range $2.10 – $3.20 · fair‑value band $4.19 – $4.73 · the $3.13 price screens below the $4.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Baozun Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of end-to-end e-commerce solutions in the People's Republic of China. It operates in two segments, E-Commerce and Brand Management.

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Baozun Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of end-to-end e-commerce solutions in the People's Republic of China. It operates in two segments, E-Commerce and Brand Management. The company offers end-to-end e-commerce solutions, including sales of apparel, and home and electronic products; online store design and setup; visual merchandising and marketing; online store operations; customer services; warehousing; and order fulfillment services. It also provides brand management services, such as strategy and tactic positioning; branding and marketing; retail and e-commerce operations; supply chain and logistics; and technology empowerment services. The company serves brand partners in various categories, including apparel and accessories; appliances; electronics; home and furnishings; beauty and cosmetics; fast moving consumer goods; mother and baby products; and automobiles. The company was formerly known as Baozun Cayman Inc. and changed its name to Baozun Inc. in March 2015. Baozun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Baozun Inc (0HLU) currently trades at $3.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.48, implying the stock looks roughly 30.1% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $10.45 per share, and 11 of the 13 models we run sit above the $3.13 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.99, and 2 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $4.19 (bear) to $4.73 (bull), the price of $3.13 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Baozun Inc reported revenue of 9.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 9.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.4%/yr. Reported net income was −242M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $13.3B · P/S ratio 1.30 · EPS (TTM) $−0.4300 · Net margin −2.4% · Return on equity −2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.3% · Operating margin 0.0% · Revenue (TTM) 10.3B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 43%, 0HLU screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.19 Fair Value $4.48 Bull $4.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $8.96 $11.95 $16.43 76
Growth DCF $8.96 $11.95 $15.68 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $7.47 $10.45 $13.44 70
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $8.96 $11.95 $16.43 76
5Y Revenue Exit $5.23 $5.97 $7.47 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $7.47 $10.45 $13.44 70
10Y Revenue Exit $6.72 $7.47 $8.96 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $8.21 $10.45 $13.44 64
Earnings-Based
EPV $2.99 $2.99 $3.73 68
Multiples
EV/EBIT $3.73 $4.48 $5.23 63
EV/EBITDA $7.47 $8.96 $11.20 64
EV/Revenue $2.99 $3.73 $4.48 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.73 $5.23 $7.47 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $8.96 $11.95 $15.68 74
Rev-Margin DCF $5.23 $5.97 $7.47 68
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $2.99 $2.99 $3.73 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 65
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 43/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.1% (2021) → 0.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.9% a year for the price and +4.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.0%

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Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Coupang, Inc CPNG $13.88 $4.96 −64%
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Baozun Inc · Fair Value
$4.48 +30%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Baozun Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0HLU

Frequently asked questions

Is Baozun Inc (0HLU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.48 versus a price of $3.13, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0HLU?
Our model-based fair value for Baozun Inc is $4.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.13.
What is the quality score of 0HLU?
Baozun Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Baozun Inc (0HLU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.19, optimistic scenario $4.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Baozun Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.48, about +43% upside versus a price of $3.13 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.19, optimistic scenario $4.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Baozun Inc (0HLU)?
Baozun Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Baozun Inc (0HLU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Baozun Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +2.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +1.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0HLU use?
Our models discount Baozun Inc at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Baozun Inc that is +2.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Baozun Inc (0HLU) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Baozun Inc grew +1.4 % a year. The price currently implies +2.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Baozun Inc (0HLU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.29 %: that much free cash flow Baozun Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Baozun Inc (0HLU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Baozun Inc it is $4.48 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $3.13. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Baozun Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 0HLU trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.13, fair value $4.48, a gap of about +43% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0HLU?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.48). For Baozun Inc the two are $1.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Baozun Inc worth?
The market values Baozun Inc at about $13.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $3.13; our models calculate a fair value of $4.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0HLU?
Our models span a range for Baozun Inc: cautious scenario $4.19, base $4.48, optimistic $4.73 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $3.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Which stocks are comparable to Baozun Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Baozun Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $3.13, calculated fair value $4.48 (+43%), Quality Score 59/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0HLU calculated?
We run Baozun Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Baozun Inc currently trades 30 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Baozun Inc (0HLU)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $3.13. Our model-based fair value is $4.48, about +43% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Baozun Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($4.19). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The models converge in a tight band ($4.19 to $4.73), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Baozun Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Baozun Inc (0HLU)?
The market capitalisation of Baozun Inc is $13.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Baozun Inc (0HLU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Baozun Inc is 1.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Baozun Inc (0HLU)?
Earnings per share at Baozun Inc are $−0.4300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Baozun Inc (0HLU)?
The net margin of Baozun Inc is −2.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Baozun Inc (0HLU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Baozun Inc is −2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Baozun Inc (0HLU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Baozun Inc is −0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Baozun Inc (0HLU)?
The operating margin of Baozun Inc is 0.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Baozun Inc (0HLU)?
Revenue at Baozun Inc is growing +15.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Baozun Inc (0HLU) carry?
The net debt of Baozun Inc is 636M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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