Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $2.6T
Amazon.com, Inc
AMZN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from $152.85 to $127.67 (−16.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +10.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($220.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($70.59 to $220.78). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $81.82 – $277.42 · fair‑value band $70.59 – $220.78 · the $272.26 price screens above the $127.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN) currently trades at $272.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $127.67, implying the stock looks roughly 53.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Amazon.com, Inc generated revenue of $743B at a net margin of 12.2%. Revenue grew 16.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.3%. Net debt stands at $66.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $70.59 (bear case) to $220.78 (bull case); at $272.26, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -53%, AMZN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($230.70) versus Growth DCF ($25.26). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products, advertising, and subscriptions service through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS).
Full company description
Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products, advertising, and subscriptions service through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, fire tablets, fire TVs, echo, ring, blink, and eero; and develops and produces media content. In addition, the company offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products in its stores; and programs that allow authors, independent publishers, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, it provides compute, storage, Artificial intelligence, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as advertising services through programs, such as sponsored ads, display, and video advertising. Additionally, the company offers Amazon Prime, a membership program. The company's products offered through its stores include merchandise and content purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. It serves consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, content creators, advertisers, and employees. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Amazon.com, Inc reported revenue of $717B in FY2025 versus $470B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $77.7B in FY2025, compounding +23.5%/yr from FY2021.
AMZN screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Alibaba Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Amazon's $220 billion AI bet hits a snag: Trainium 2 chips are only 20 months old and already being replaced
- Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google Are 'Collectively Overinvesting' In AI: 'That's Betting, Not Investing,' Says 'Dean of Valuation'
Peer Group
Internet Retail · 108 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alibaba Group BABA | $114.97 | $75.75 | -34% |
| PDD Holdings PDD | $84.14 | $223.51 | +166% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,814 | $798.98 | -56% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $190.16 | $38.64 | -80% |
| Sea Limited SE | $106.22 | $52.70 | -50% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $117.20 | $60.13 | -49% |
| JD.com, Inc JD | €25.95 | €31.88 | +23% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.86 | $2.79 | -83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €38.18 | €12.71 | -67% |
| Wayfair Inc W | $89.31 | $11.46 | -87% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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