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Data-driven stock valuation

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Amazon.com Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $2.6T · ISIN US0231351067

At a glance

AC Amazon.com Inc logo Amazon.com Inc AMZN · US
Price$258.51
Fair Value$127.67
Upside−50.6%
Quality54/100

A solid business, but trading 102% above our fair value of $127.67.

As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Amazon.com Inc is $127.67 per share against a price of $258.51, so the fair value sits 51% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +13.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.2% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/14)
✓Wide moat 75/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Medium Range $69.09 to $208.89

Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price −5.2% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($208.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($69.09 to $208.89). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$284.02 $81.82 Fair Value $127.67 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $81.82 – $284.02 · fair‑value band $69.09 – $208.89 · the $258.51 price screens above the $127.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

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Analysis

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) currently trades at $258.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $127.67, implying the stock looks roughly 102.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $239.42 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $258.51 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $25.26, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Amazon.com Inc generated revenue of $743B at a net margin of 12.2%. Revenue grew 16.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.3%. Net debt stands at $66.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026

Scenario range: $69.09 (bear) to $208.89 (bull), the price of $258.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at −51%, AMZN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.49 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $14.74 $22.57 $48.15 75
EPV $58.57 $68.56 $77.44 74
Growth DCF $14.01 $25.26 $48.98 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $14.74 $22.57 $48.15 75
Owner Earnings $19.92 $44.04 $96.92 70
5Y Revenue Exit $51.65 $99.64 $201.07 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $99.50 $196.44 $387.40 71
5Y P/E Exit $97.35 $243.14 $446.69 67
10Y Revenue Exit $39.92 $113.03 $168.24 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $78.30 $218.52 $478.00 62
10Y P/E Exit $76.69 $213.76 $450.61 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $49.10 $342.40 $480.51 63
Lynch FV $128.78 $183.97 $239.17 61
PEG = 1.0 $128.78 $183.97 $239.17 57
EPV $58.57 $68.56 $77.44 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $119.14 $158.85 $198.56 63
P/S Multiple $59.98 $79.98 $99.97 58
P/B Multiple $92.06 $122.75 $153.43 55
EV/EBIT $102.33 $135.79 $169.25 66
EV/EBITDA $123.89 $164.54 $205.18 67
EV/Revenue $57.95 $81.94 $105.94 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $19.11 $25.60 $38.21 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $14.01 $25.26 $48.98 74
Rev-Margin DCF $51.97 $113.49 $229.68 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income $49.86 $66.13 $277.39 64
ROIC Compounder $76.45 $114.99 $143.63 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $167.59 $239.42 $311.24 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($239.42) versus Growth DCF ($25.26). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 30.9
P/S ratio 3.35 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $8.37 price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.9
Net margin 10.8% FY2025
Return on equity 24.3% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 13.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $743B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +16.6% 3y avg +11.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +74.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $7.7B FY2025
Net debt $66.2B FY2025 · ≈ 8.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 65
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 80
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 3
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 57
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 66
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products, advertising, and subscriptions service through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS).

Full company description

Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products, advertising, and subscriptions service through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, fire tablets, fire TVs, echo, ring, blink, and eero; and develops and produces media content. In addition, the company offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products in its stores; and programs that allow authors, independent publishers, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, it provides compute, storage, Artificial intelligence, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as advertising services through programs, such as sponsored ads, display, and video advertising. Additionally, the company offers Amazon Prime, a membership program. The company's products offered through its stores include merchandise and content purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. It serves consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, content creators, advertisers, and employees. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Amazon.com Inc reported revenue of $717B in FY2025 versus $470B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $77.7B in FY2025, compounding +23.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$717B
Latest YoY
+12.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (29Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+44.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
≈ +28.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+28.0%
Dividend yield0.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 28.0% vs 10Y 46.9%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5.9% (2020) → 11.2% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop189% (2014) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
⚠ Final year 2025 sits 70% above trend (one-off), rate approximate
Revenue +11.1%/yr
FY21 $470B
FY22 $514B
FY23 $575B
FY24 $638B
FY25 $717B
Net income +23.5%/yr
FY21 $33.4B
FY22 −$2.7B
FY23 $30.4B
FY24 $59.2B
FY25 $77.7B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2025) +51.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +20.2 %

of which total revenue +21.7 % · buybacks/dilution −1.2 %

EBIT margin +16.4 %
Tax rate +4.8 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +3.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

AMZN screens 102% overvalued. Compare with Alibaba Group →

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Amazon.com Inc · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Amazon.com Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMZN

Peer Group

Internet Retail · 103 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −51% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 17% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 30.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 6.42× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 3.55× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 343.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 16.8× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.41× · Pricier than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Amazon.com Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+48.9 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+13.2 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.6 %
FCF yield on price0.27 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.7 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 27
FUTURE83 · sector 52
PAST97 · sector 12
HEALTH92 · sector 94
DIVIDEND0 · sector 37

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Alibaba Group 89988 HK$97.45 HK$48.38 −50%
PDD Holdings PDD $85.69 $225.48 +163%
MercadoLibre, Inc MELI $1,966 $798.98 −59%
DoorDash, Inc DASH $222.00 $38.64 −83%
Sea Limited SE $112.09 $52.70 −53%
JD.com, Inc 89618 ¥95.45 ¥73.98 −22%
eBay Inc EBAY $105.62 $60.13 −43%
Coupang, Inc CPNG $16.32 $2.79 −83%
Delivery Hero SE DHER €36.47 €12.71 −65%
Wayfair Inc W $99.27 $11.46 −88%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $127.67 versus a price of $258.51, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AMZN?
Our model-based fair value for Amazon.com Inc is $127.67 (as of Sep 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $258.51.
What is the quality score of AMZN?
Amazon.com Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $127.67 (as of Sep 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $69.09, optimistic scenario $208.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Amazon.com Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $127.67, about −51% upside versus a price of $258.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $69.09, optimistic scenario $208.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)?
Amazon.com Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $743B (latest available figure, as of Sep 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AMZN?
The net profit margin of Amazon.com Inc is about 12.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
What growth is priced into Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Amazon.com Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +48.9 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.7 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.2 % per year. As of Sep 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMZN use?
Our models discount Amazon.com Inc at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.46, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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