Coupang Inc (CPNG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Coupang Inc stock $4.97, price $16.42, that is 69.7% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 70% below what the stock costs today.
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Positive coverage
Profit last quarter +28% vs. a year ago.
Quality 52/100
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +23.6 %/yr in USD)
Loss over the last twelve months · -2.2% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 0.6%
Insiders sold $3.3M (6M)
Fair value $4.97 · Strongly overvalued (−69.7%)
Trails peers(2/12)
Narrow moat27/100
Thin data
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Recent upgrade outage reveals concentrated operational risks🚩Naver ecosystem challenges grocery and delivery share🚩Korean regulators impose antitrust and data fines
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.35 – $40.06 · fair‑value band $4.77 – $5.91 · the $16.42 price screens above the $4.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Coupang, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates retail business through its mobile applications and internet websites in South Korea and internationally. It operates through Product Commerce and Developing Offerings segments.
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The Product Commerce segment includes Korean retail and marketplace offerings; Rocket Fresh, a fresh grocery offering; and advertising products.
The Developing Offerings segment offers Eats, a restaurant ordering and delivery service; Play, an online content streaming service; fintech activities; and Farfetch, a luxury fashion marketplace.
It also performs operations and support services in the United States, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, China, Japan, Europe, the United Kingdom, and India. Coupang, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Stock analysis
Coupang Inc (CPNG) currently trades at $16.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.97, 70% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $11.68 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $16.42 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.81, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $4.77 (bear) to $5.91 (bull), the price of $16.42 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Coupang Inc reported revenue of $34.5B in FY2025 versus $18.4B in FY2021, a compound +17.0%/yr. Reported net income was $208M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $29.5B Large · P/S ratio 0.77 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7600 · Net margin −2.2% · Return on equity −20.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.9% · Operating margin −6.3% · Revenue (TTM) $35.5B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at −70%, CPNG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$4.77Fair Value $4.97Bull$5.91
Price $16.42 · Downside -69.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $3.3M and none bought.
SaleJonathan D. LeeChief Accounting Officer3× since Jan 2, 2026: 13,717 shares, avg. $16.58$227,473Oct 2, 2026
SaleHarold RogersOfficer192,110 shares at $16.18$3.1MAug 10, 2026
BuyNeil MehtaDirector7,350,104 shares at $18.58$136.6MMar 13, 2026
SaleGaurav AnandChief Financial Officer75,350 shares at $29.02$2.2MNov 10, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.8%
’18
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−0.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 1%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.6% a year for the price and +8.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Logistics scale and end-to-end fulfillment deliver a same-day delivery edge, yet thin margins and intense retail competition limit overall durability.
Main risk: Naver’s partnerships such as with Kurly for dawn delivery and fresh groceries could draw customers away from Coupang’s Rocket services and force lower prices or higher marketing spend in South Korea.
Bull case: Coupang could extend its logistics integration with AI-driven efficiencies to defend market position against Naver while navigating regulatory scrutiny through stronger compliance.
Bear case: If Naver’s ecosystem gains further ground and regulators impose sustained restrictions or large penalties, Coupang’s integrated model could face higher costs and slower growth in South Korea.
Coupang built its edge on owning end-to-end logistics and fulfillment centers that enable same-day or dawn delivery across South Korea. A recent upgrade caused a hours-long outage that hit its shopping, Eats and Play services plus driver systems, showing how that same integration can create single points of failure. Does tighter control of the supply chain ultimately reduce risk or concentrate it?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 98 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−69.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−2.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−6.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Coupang Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CPNG
Frequently asked questions
Is Coupang Inc (CPNG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.97 versus a price of $16.42, about 70% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CPNG?
Our model-based fair value for Coupang Inc is $4.97 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.42.
What is the quality score of CPNG?
Coupang Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.97 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.77, optimistic scenario $5.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Coupang Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.97, about 70% lower versus a price of $16.42 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.77, optimistic scenario $5.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
Coupang Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $35.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Coupang Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +25.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.6 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CPNG use?
Our models discount Coupang Inc at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Coupang Inc that is +25.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Coupang Inc (CPNG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Coupang Inc grew +23.6 % a year. The price currently implies +25.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Coupang Inc (CPNG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Coupang Inc (+25.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.77 %: that much free cash flow Coupang Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Coupang Inc it is $4.97 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $16.42. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Coupang Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, CPNG trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.42, fair value $4.97, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CPNG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.97). For Coupang Inc the two are $11.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Coupang Inc worth?
The market values Coupang Inc at about $29.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $16.42; our models calculate a fair value of $4.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CPNG?
Our models span a range for Coupang Inc: cautious scenario $4.77, base $4.97, optimistic $5.91 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $16.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CPNG?
The PEG ratio of Coupang Inc is 1.19 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Coupang Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −20.0%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CPNG from its 52-week high?
Coupang Inc trades at $16.42, about 46% below its 52-week high of $30.22 and 19% above the low of $13.75 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Coupang Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, MercadoLibre, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Coupang Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $16.42, calculated fair value $4.97 (−70%), Quality Score 52/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CPNG calculated?
We run Coupang Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Coupang Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $16.42. Our model-based fair value is $4.97, about 70% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Coupang Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Coupang Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
The market capitalisation of Coupang Inc is $29.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Coupang Inc is 0.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
Earnings per share at Coupang Inc are $−0.7600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
The net margin of Coupang Inc is −2.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Coupang Inc is −20.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Coupang Inc is −1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
The operating margin of Coupang Inc is −6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
Revenue at Coupang Inc is growing +3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Coupang Inc (CPNG)?
Earnings per share at Coupang Inc are growing +28.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Coupang Inc (CPNG) hold?
Coupang Inc holds more cash than debt, $1.7B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 4, 2026