Wayfair Inc (W) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $12.1B
Wayfair Inc
W · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +11.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($2.76 to $20.16). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.14 – $333.00 · fair‑value band $2.76 – $20.16 · the $104.07 price screens above the $11.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Wayfair Inc (W) currently trades at $104.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.46, implying the stock looks roughly 89.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Wayfair Inc generated revenue of $12.7B at a net margin of -2.4%. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year. Net debt stands at $2.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.76 (bear case) to $20.16 (bull case); at $104.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 129% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -89%, W screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($42.22) versus Growth DCF ($7.71). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Wayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally. It provides online selections of furniture, décor, housewares, and home improvement products through its sites comprising Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, Perigold, and Wayfair Professional.
Full company description
Wayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally. It provides online selections of furniture, décor, housewares, and home improvement products through its sites comprising Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, Perigold, and Wayfair Professional. The company offers its products under the Three Posts and Mercury Row brands. Wayfair Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Wayfair Inc reported revenue of $12.5B in FY2025 versus $13.7B in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$313M in FY2025.
W screens 89% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why Wayfair Stock Popped Today
- Wayfair projects high single-digit Q3 growth with 6%-7% adjusted EBITDA margin range
- Wayfair Rises, Caterpillar Surges on Earnings | Stock Movers
- Here's What Key Metrics Tell Us About Wayfair (W) Q2 Earnings
Peer Group
Internet Retail · 108 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc AMZN | $245.34 | $127.67 | -48% |
| Alibaba Group BABA | $114.97 | $75.75 | -34% |
| PDD Holdings PDD | $84.14 | $223.51 | +166% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,814 | $798.98 | -56% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $190.16 | $38.64 | -80% |
| Sea Limited SE | $106.22 | $52.70 | -50% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $117.20 | $60.13 | -49% |
| JD.com, Inc JD | €25.95 | €31.88 | +23% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.86 | $2.79 | -83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €38.18 | €12.71 | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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