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Data-driven stock valuation

JD.com Inc Adr (JD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what JD.com Inc Adr is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $40.2B · ISIN US47215P1066

At a glance

JC JD.com Inc Adr logo JD.com Inc Adr JD · US
Price$27.00
Fair Value$47.65
Upside+76.5%
Quality58/100

A solid business, trading 43% below our fair value of $47.65.

As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of JD.com Inc Adr is $47.65 per share against a price of $27.00, so the fair value sits 76% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.1% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.63% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
!Narrow moat 39/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 25 out of 100
!Weak on past: 24 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $21.73 to $52.23

Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Fair value updated Sep 6, 2026, revised from $47.59 to $47.65 (+0.1%) since Aug 29, 2026. Share price −19.3% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range ($21.73 to $52.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$80.45 $19.59 Fair Value $47.65 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $19.59 – $80.45 · fair‑value band $21.73 – $52.23 · the $27.00 price screens below the $47.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

JD.com Inc Adr (JD) currently trades at $27.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $47.65, implying the stock looks roughly 43.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $455.04 per share, and 23 of the 23 models we run sit above the $27.00 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $76.02, and 0 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, JD.com Inc Adr generated revenue of $1.3T at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue grew 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $42.5B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026

Scenario range: $21.73 (bear) to $52.23 (bull), the price of $27.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at 76%, JD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $124.51 $158.87 $268.28 79
Growth DCF $120.95 $169.42 $267.38 78
Residual Income $141.62 $153.92 $201.99 76
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $124.51 $158.87 $268.28 79
Owner Earnings $241.21 $466.51 $939.45 72
5Y Revenue Exit $95.63 $114.51 $152.60 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $142.55 $211.36 $343.65 74
5Y P/E Exit $258.29 $532.03 $905.93 68
10Y Revenue Exit $103.23 $137.01 $160.20 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $137.94 $234.27 $416.40 66
10Y P/E Exit $221.50 $474.15 $934.14 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $98.85 $689.33 $967.38 63
Lynch FV $239.53 $342.18 $444.83 61
PEG = 1.0 $239.53 $342.18 $444.83 57
EPV $74.38 $76.02 $77.44 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $239.85 $319.79 $399.74 63
P/S Multiple $185.34 $247.11 $308.89 58
P/B Multiple $185.34 $247.11 $308.89 55
EV/EBIT $92.33 $101.58 $110.82 66
EV/EBITDA $148.05 $175.86 $203.67 67
EV/Revenue $83.30 $91.31 $99.32 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $83.37 $111.72 $166.74 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $120.95 $169.42 $267.38 78
Economic Profit
Residual Income $141.62 $153.92 $201.99 76
ROIC Compounder $74.38 $76.02 $77.44 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $318.53 $455.04 $591.55 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($455.04) versus Economic Profit ($76.02). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 19.7
P/S ratio 0.30 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.37 price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.7
Dividend yield 3.6% payout 71.5%
Net margin 1.5% FY2025
Return on equity 6.0% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 1.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $1.3T TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.9% 3y avg +7.8%
EPS growth (YoY) −50.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $4.8B FY2025
Net cash $42.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 17
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 22
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and Europe. It operates through three segments: JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses.

Full company description

JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and Europe. It operates through three segments: JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses. The company provides home appliances; mobile handsets and other digital products; computers, including desktop, laptop, and other various products, as well as printers and other office equipment; furniture and household goods; apparel; cosmetics and other personal care items; and pet products. It offers women's shoes, bags, watches, jewelry, and luxury goods; men's shoes, sports gear, and fitness equipment; automobiles and accessories; maternal and childcare products; toys and musical instruments; food, beverages, and fresh produce; gifts, flowers, and plants; and pharmaceutical and healthcare products, such as OCT pharmaceutical products, nutritional supplements, healthcare services, and other healthcare equipment. In addition, the company provides books, e-books, music, movies, and other media products; virtual goods consisting of online travel agency, attraction tickets, and prepaid phone cards and game cards; industrial products; and installation and maintenance services. Further, it offers online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services. Additionally, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; and offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services, as well as engages in online retail business; technology-driven supply chain solutions; and logistics services. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

JD.com Inc Adr reported revenue of 1.3T CNY in FY2025 versus 952B CNY in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was 19.6B CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$1.3T
Latest YoY
+13.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (14Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+34.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−4.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−8.0%
Dividend yield3.6%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1.7% (2020) → 0.2% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop867% (2018) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue +8.3%/yr
FY21 952B CNY
FY22 1.0T CNY
FY23 1.1T CNY
FY24 1.2T CNY
FY25 1.3T CNY
Net income
FY21 −3.6B CNY
FY22 10.4B CNY
FY23 24.2B CNY
FY24 41.4B CNY
FY25 19.6B CNY

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "JD.com Inc Adr Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JD

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Internet Retail · 105 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside +68% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.28× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.7× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 7.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.88× · Cheaper than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must JD.com Inc Adr deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 yearsless than minus 40 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+11.9 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.7 %
FCF yield on price11.96 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.1 %

The price sits beyond what a cash-flow model can represent: the valuation rests on more than today's free cash flow. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 35
FUTURE25 · sector 52
PAST24 · sector 10
HEALTH86 · sector 94
DIVIDEND73 · sector 37

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Amazon.com, Inc AMZN $258.51 $127.67 −51%
Alibaba Group 89988 HK$97.45 HK$48.38 −50%
PDD Holdings PDD $82.21 $225.78 +175%
MercadoLibre, Inc MELI $1,978 $798.98 −60%
DoorDash, Inc DASH $222.00 $38.64 −83%
Sea Limited SE $112.09 $52.70 −53%
JD.com, Inc 89618 ¥95.45 ¥73.98 −22%
eBay Inc EBAY $104.59 $60.13 −43%
Coupang, Inc CPNG $16.32 $2.79 −83%
Delivery Hero SE DHER €36.47 €12.71 −65%

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Frequently asked questions

Is JD.com Inc Adr (JD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $47.65 versus a price of $27.00, about +76% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of JD?
Our model-based fair value for JD.com Inc Adr is $47.65 (as of Sep 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $27.00.
What is the quality score of JD?
JD.com Inc Adr has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for JD.com Inc Adr (JD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $47.65 (as of Sep 6, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.73, optimistic scenario $52.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the JD.com Inc Adr stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $47.65, about +76% upside versus a price of $27.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $21.73, optimistic scenario $52.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of JD.com Inc Adr (JD)?
JD.com Inc Adr reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3T (latest available figure, as of Sep 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of JD?
The net profit margin of JD.com Inc Adr is about 1.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does JD.com Inc Adr pay a dividend?
JD.com Inc Adr currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.63% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into JD.com Inc Adr (JD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, JD.com Inc Adr would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.1 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.9 % per year. As of Sep 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JD use?
Our models discount JD.com Inc Adr at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of JD.com Inc Adr (JD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For JD.com Inc Adr it is $47.65 per share (as of Sep 6, 2026), against a price of $27.00. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is JD.com Inc Adr stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 6, 2026, JD trades below its calculated fair value: price $27.00, fair value $47.65, a gap of about +76% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($27.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($47.65). For JD.com Inc Adr the two are $20.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is JD.com Inc Adr worth?
The market values JD.com Inc Adr at about $40.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 6, 2026). Per share that is $27.00; our models calculate a fair value of $47.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JD?
Our models span a range for JD.com Inc Adr: cautious scenario $21.73, base $47.65, optimistic $52.23 per share (as of Sep 6, 2026, price $27.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JD?
JD.com Inc Adr trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.7 (as of Sep 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $47.65 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9.
What is the PEG ratio of JD?
The PEG ratio of JD.com Inc Adr is 0.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of JD.com Inc Adr (JD)?
Balance-sheet figures for JD.com Inc Adr (as of Sep 6, 2026): return on equity 6.0%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JD from its 52-week high?
JD.com Inc Adr trades at $27.00, about 24% below its 52-week high of $35.62 and 14% above the low of $23.68 (as of Sep 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $47.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to JD.com Inc Adr?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, MercadoLibre, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is JD.com Inc Adr stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 6, 2026: price $27.00, calculated fair value $47.65 (+76%), Quality Score 58/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JD calculated?
We run JD.com Inc Adr through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $47.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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