MercadoLibre, Inc (MELI) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $94.2B
MercadoLibre, Inc
MELI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price +0.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($561.16 to $2,379). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $612.70 – $2,614 · fair‑value band $561.16 – $2,379 · the $1,830 price screens above the $798.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
MercadoLibre, Inc (MELI) currently trades at $1,830, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $798.98, implying the stock looks roughly 56.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, MercadoLibre, Inc generated revenue of $31.8B at a net margin of 6.0%. Revenue grew 49.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 31.3%. Net debt stands at $7.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $561.16 (bear case) to $2,379 (bull case); at $1,830, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -56%, MELI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($2,469) versus Asset-Based ($89.18). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and internationally. The company operates Mercado Libre Marketplace, an online commerce platform that can be accessed through mobile app or website; and Mercado Pago, a financial technology solution platform, which offers comprehensive set of financial technology services to …
Full company description
MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and internationally. The company operates Mercado Libre Marketplace, an online commerce platform that can be accessed through mobile app or website; and Mercado Pago, a financial technology solution platform, which offers comprehensive set of financial technology services to users and other users of its e-commerce platform. It also provides Mercado Fondo that allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts; Mercado Credito, which grants loans and obtains better funding alternatives; and Mercado Mercado Envios that facilitates the shipping of goods from the Company and sellers to buyers. In addition, the company provides Mercado Libre Classifieds, where users can list vehicles, properties, and services; Mercado Ads, an advertising platform, which enables retailers and brands to promote their products and services on the platform. MercadoLibre, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MercadoLibre, Inc reported revenue of $28.9B in FY2025 versus $7.1B in FY2021, a compound +42.2%/yr. Reported net income was $2.0B in FY2025, compounding +121.5%/yr from FY2021.
MELI screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Does MercadoLibre’s Cash Generation And Fintech Momentum Reprice Its Long-Term Story For MELI?
- Stay Ahead of the Game With MercadoLibre (MELI) Q2 Earnings: Wall Street's Insights on Key Metrics
- 1 Stat That Makes MercadoLibre Stock Hard to Ignore Before Aug. 5
- Should You Buy MercadoLibre Stock Before Aug. 5?
Peer Group
Internet Retail · 108 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc AMZN | $245.34 | $127.67 | -48% |
| Alibaba Group BABA | $114.97 | $75.75 | -34% |
| PDD Holdings PDD | $84.14 | $223.51 | +166% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $190.16 | $38.64 | -80% |
| Sea Limited SE | $106.22 | $52.70 | -50% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $117.20 | $60.13 | -49% |
| JD.com, Inc JD | €25.95 | €31.88 | +23% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.86 | $2.79 | -83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €38.18 | €12.71 | -67% |
| Wayfair Inc W | $89.31 | $11.46 | -87% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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