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The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc $30.58, price $91.35, upside -66.5%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Defensive · GB · ISIN US5184391044

TE Some data Sep 24, 2026

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc

0JTM · LSE

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $30.58 · Strongly overvalued (−66.5%)
!Quality 49/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.7% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓1.5% dividend yield · Well covered
!Narrow moat 26/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$346.17 $49.85 Fair Value $30.58 May 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $49.85 – $346.17 · fair‑value band $27.51 – $37.02 · the $91.35 price screens above the $30.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide.

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The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide. The company offers skin care products, including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, eye care, body care, exfoliators, acne care and oil correctors, facial masks, and sun care products; and makeup products, such as foundations, powders, concealers and setting sprays, lipsticks, lip liners and lip glosses, mascaras, and eyeshadows and eyeliners, as well as compacts, brushes, and other makeup tools. It also provides fragrance products in various forms comprising parfum, eau de parfum, eau de toilette, eau de cologne, and body spray, as well as lotions, creams, powders, candles and soaps; and hair care products, including shampoos, conditioners, styling products, treatment, finishing sprays, and hair colour products, as well as sells ancillary products and services. The company offers its products under the La Mer, Jo Malone London, TOM FORD, AERIN Beauty, Le Labo, Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle, KILIAN PARIS, BALMAIN Beauty, Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, The Ordinary, Aveda, Bobbi Brown Cosmetics, Too Faced, Dr.Jart+, Bumble and bumble, Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle, Smashbox, Darphin Paris, Lab Series, NIOD, Aramis, and GLAMGLOW brands. It sells its products through department stores, duty-free retailers, specialty multi retailers, online pure players, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and top-tier salons and spas, as well as direct-to-consumer businesses across freestanding stores, and brand websites and third-party online platforms. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Stock analysis

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM) currently trades at $91.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.58, 66.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $52.93 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $91.35 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.14, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $27.51 (bear) to $37.02 (bull), the price of $91.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc reported revenue of $14.3B in FY2025 versus $16.2B in FY2021, a compound −3.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.1B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $32.9B · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) $9.15 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin −7.9% · Return on equity −6.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6% · Operating margin 14.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −67%, 0JTM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $27.51 Fair Value $30.58 Bull $37.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.75 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $37.49 $50.68 $69.08 79
Growth DCF $38.14 $50.12 $66.02 77
5Y EBITDA Exit $45.50 $67.92 $93.30 73
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $37.49 $50.68 $69.08 79
5Y Revenue Exit $33.21 $45.71 $61.14 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $45.50 $67.92 $93.30 73
10Y Revenue Exit $33.90 $45.30 $59.56 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $42.13 $60.09 $82.79 66
Earnings-Based
EPV $29.65 $33.06 $36.01 70
Multiples
EV/EBIT $41.71 $52.93 $64.15 63
EV/EBITDA $56.07 $72.07 $88.08 64
EV/Revenue $32.08 $42.37 $52.67 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.33 $7.14 $10.65 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $38.14 $50.12 $66.02 77
Rev-Margin DCF $33.21 $46.03 $60.14 71
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $30.10 $34.09 $37.87 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 34
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 26
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 64
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 43
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 23/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
15.6% (2019) → 6.2% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.4% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.4%

0JTM screens overvalued: fair value 67% below the price. Compare with Colgate-Palmolive Company →

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Estée Lauder Companies Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0JTM

Frequently asked questions

Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $30.58 versus a price of $91.35, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0JTM?
Our model-based fair value for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is $30.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $91.35.
What is the quality score of 0JTM?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $30.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $27.51, optimistic scenario $37.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Estée Lauder Companies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $30.58, about −67% upside versus a price of $91.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $27.51, optimistic scenario $37.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc pay a dividend?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.53% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +28.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew 0.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0JTM use?
Our models discount The Estée Lauder Companies Inc at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 1.26, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Estée Lauder Companies Inc that is +28.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The Estée Lauder Companies Inc grew 0.0 % a year. The price currently implies +28.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (+28.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.04 %: that much free cash flow The Estée Lauder Companies Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Estée Lauder Companies Inc it is $30.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $91.35. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0JTM trades above its calculated fair value: price $91.35, fair value $30.58, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0JTM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($91.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($30.58). For The Estée Lauder Companies Inc the two are $60.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc worth?
The market values The Estée Lauder Companies Inc at about $32.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $91.35; our models calculate a fair value of $30.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0JTM?
Our models span a range for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc: cautious scenario $27.51, base $30.58, optimistic $37.02 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $91.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0JTM from its 52-week high?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc trades at $91.35, about 23% below its 52-week high of $118.80 and 36% above the low of $67.04 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $30.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Estée Lauder Companies Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, Kenvue Inc, Kimberly-Clark Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $91.35, calculated fair value $30.58 (−67%), Quality Score 49/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0JTM calculated?
We run The Estée Lauder Companies Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $30.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $91.35. Our model-based fair value is $30.58, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Estée Lauder Companies Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($37.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM) come from?
Earnings per share at The Estée Lauder Companies Inc grew −4.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.1 %, EBIT margin −7.5 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
The market capitalisation of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is $32.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is 0.1 (as of Jul 24, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What are the earnings per share of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
Earnings per share at The Estée Lauder Companies Inc are $9.15 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
The dividend yield of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is 1.5% (payout 15.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
The net margin of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is −7.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is −6.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
The operating margin of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
Revenue at The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM)?
Earnings per share at The Estée Lauder Companies Inc are growing −45.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (0JTM) carry?
The net debt of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is $6.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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