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Northern Trust Corp. (0K91) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Northern Trust Corp. $132, price $171, upside -23.1%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · GB · Home US

NT Some data Sep 24, 2026

Northern Trust Corp.

0K91 · LSE

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $131.76 · Overvalued (−23.1%)
✓Quality 71/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +17.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 24.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.9% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Ranks above peers (7/10)
✓Wide moat 72/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 3 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$193.30 $56.04 Fair Value $131.76 Jan 2018 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $56.04 – $193.30 · fair‑value band $98.82 – $164.71 · the $171.40 price screens above the $131.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management.

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Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytical, employee benefit, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage, transition management, banking, and cash management services. It serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage; and private and business banking services. This segment also provides global custody; fiduciary; family office consulting; and technology solutions to high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately-held businesses. In addition, it offers asset management, and related services and other products comprising active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; muti-asset and alternative asset classes which includes private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. Further, the company provides overlay and other risk management services. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Stock analysis

Northern Trust Corp. (0K91) currently trades at $171.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $131.76, 23.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $132.15 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $171.40 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $39.21, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $98.82 (bear) to $164.71 (bull), the price of $171.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Northern Trust Corp. reported revenue of $14.3B in FY2025 versus $6.5B in FY2021, a compound +21.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7B in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $33.0B · P/E ratio 0.2 · P/S ratio 0.03 · EPS (TTM) $7.21 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 12.0% · Return on equity 17.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −23%, 0K91 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $98.82 Fair Value $131.76 Bull $164.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.03 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $55.24 $67.22 $96.17 75
P/E Multiple $122.43 $163.24 $204.05 63
P/B Multiple $99.11 $132.15 $165.19 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $122.43 $163.24 $204.05 63
P/B Multiple $99.11 $132.15 $165.19 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $29.26 $39.21 $58.53 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $55.24 $67.22 $96.17 75

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 71/100

Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 58
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 68
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 94/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.7% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+7.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.5% vs 8.4%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−7.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.3% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−35.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.7%

0K91 screens overvalued: fair value 23% below the price. Compare with BOCHGR →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Banks” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5266 stocks

Beats the sector median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −23.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 17.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 24.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 42.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 36.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.28× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 0.2× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)3 · sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 35
PAST (return on equity)68 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)86 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)37 · sector 37

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Northern Trust Corp. · Fair Value
$131.76 −23%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Northern Trust Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0K91

Frequently asked questions

Is Northern Trust Corp. (0K91) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $131.76 versus a price of $171.40, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0K91?
Our model-based fair value for Northern Trust Corp. is $131.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $171.40.
What is the quality score of 0K91?
Northern Trust Corp. has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $131.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $98.82, optimistic scenario $164.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northern Trust Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $131.76, about −23% upside versus a price of $171.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $98.82, optimistic scenario $164.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
Northern Trust Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Northern Trust Corp. pay a dividend?
Northern Trust Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.87% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Northern Trust Corp. would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0K91 use?
Our models discount Northern Trust Corp. at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 1.26, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Northern Trust Corp. that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Northern Trust Corp. (0K91) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Northern Trust Corp. grew +17.8 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Northern Trust Corp. (0K91) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Northern Trust Corp. (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.51 %: that much free cash flow Northern Trust Corp. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northern Trust Corp. it is $131.76 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $171.40. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Northern Trust Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0K91 trades above its calculated fair value: price $171.40, fair value $131.76, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0K91?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($171.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($131.76). For Northern Trust Corp. the two are $39.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northern Trust Corp. worth?
The market values Northern Trust Corp. at about $33.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $171.40; our models calculate a fair value of $131.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0K91?
Our models span a range for Northern Trust Corp.: cautious scenario $98.82, base $131.76, optimistic $164.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $171.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0K91?
Northern Trust Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $131.76 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northern Trust Corp. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.1%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0K91 from its 52-week high?
Northern Trust Corp. trades at $171.40, about 11% below its 52-week high of $193.30 and 40% above the low of $122.16 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $131.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northern Trust Corp.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value BOCHGR, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northern Trust Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $171.40, calculated fair value $131.76 (−23%), Quality Score 71/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0K91 calculated?
We run Northern Trust Corp. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $131.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Northern Trust Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $171.40. Our model-based fair value is $131.76, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northern Trust Corp. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($164.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of Northern Trust Corp. (0K91) come from?
Earnings per share at Northern Trust Corp. grew +8.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.1 %, EBIT margin −4.5 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Northern Trust Corp.

How large is the market capitalisation of Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
The market capitalisation of Northern Trust Corp. is $33.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Northern Trust Corp. is 0.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
Earnings per share at Northern Trust Corp. are $7.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
The dividend yield of Northern Trust Corp. is 1.9% (payout 44.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
The net margin of Northern Trust Corp. is 12.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northern Trust Corp. is 17.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northern Trust Corp. is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
The operating margin of Northern Trust Corp. is 42.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
Revenue at Northern Trust Corp. is growing +36.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Northern Trust Corp. (0K91)?
Earnings per share at Northern Trust Corp. are growing +98.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Northern Trust Corp. (0K91) hold?
Northern Trust Corp. holds more cash than debt, $42.3B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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