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Terna S.p.A (0LBM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Terna S.p.A €5.35, price €9.21, upside -41.9%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Utilities · GB · Home Italy · ISIN IT0003242622

TS Thin data Sep 29, 2026

Terna S.p.A

0LBM · LSE

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value €5.35 · Strongly overvalued (−41.9%)
!Quality 57/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +4.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 27.2% net margin (TTM)
!High debt
✓4.0% dividend yield · Sustainable
✓Wide moat 73/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€10.39 €4.93 Fair Value €5.35 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €4.93 – €10.39 · fair‑value band €2.76 – €7.67 · the €9.21 price screens above the €5.35 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Terna S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides electricity transmission and dispatching services in Italy, other Euro-area countries, and internationally. It operates through Regulated, Non-Regulated, and International segments.

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Terna S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides electricity transmission and dispatching services in Italy, other Euro-area countries, and internationally. It operates through Regulated, Non-Regulated, and International segments. The company is involved in the design, construction, management, development, operation, and maintenance of national transmission grid; dispatching and metering; and construction of storage systems. It also supplies transformers and cables; provides energy and connectivity services; and installs and operates interconnecting lines. In addition, the company designs, produces, commercializes, and repairs power transformers for electricity transmission and distribution grids; industrial transformers for the steel and metals industries; special transformers for convertors used in electrochemical production; manufactures and sells marine and terrestrial cables; develops renewable energy projects; and undertakes private interconnector projects. The company was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy.

Stock analysis

Terna S.p.A (0LBM) currently trades at €9.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €5.35, 41.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €14.02 per share, and 2 of the 22 models we run sit above the €9.21 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €1.46, and 20 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €2.76 (bear) to €7.67 (bull), the price of €9.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Terna S.p.A reported revenue of €2.5B in FY2020 versus €2.0B in FY2016, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was €786M in FY2020, compounding +5.5%/yr from FY2016.

Key figures

Market cap €14.2B · P/E ratio 0.2 · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) €0.3940 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 31.9% · Return on equity 13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −42%, 0LBM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €2.76 Fair Value €5.35 Bull €7.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €8.29 €14.17 €22.69 75
Growth DCF €8.62 €14.02 €21.47 74
Residual Income €2.48 €3.04 €4.30 72
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €8.29 €14.17 €22.69 75
5Y Revenue Exit €1.57 €3.03 €4.67 68
5Y EBITDA Exit €4.28 €7.91 €11.91 70
5Y P/E Exit €3.25 €6.04 €8.80 66
10Y Revenue Exit €3.89 €5.69 €7.71 64
10Y EBITDA Exit €5.66 €9.02 €13.05 65
10Y P/E Exit €5.01 €7.75 €10.76 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €2.66 €6.72 €8.73 62
PEG = 1.0 €1.24 €1.77 €2.31 55
EPV n/a €0.3800 €0.9500 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €2.72 €5.20 €8.72 63
DDM Multi-Stage €2.72 €4.14 €5.67 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple €5.28 €7.03 €8.79 63
P/S Multiple €2.30 €3.06 €3.83 58
P/B Multiple €2.93 €3.91 €4.89 55
EV/EBIT €2.42 €4.64 €6.85 63
EV/EBITDA €2.90 €5.27 €7.64 65
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.09 €1.46 €2.17 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €8.62 €14.02 €21.47 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €2.48 €3.04 €4.30 72
ROIC Compounder n/a €0.3800 €0.9500 65
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €4.13 €5.90 €7.67 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 46
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
51.0% (2016) → 48.2% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

0LBM screens overvalued: fair value 42% below the price. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 155 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 57 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −38.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 13.3% · Above median
Return on assets 4.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 27.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 45.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 9.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.26× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 0.2× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NextEra Energy, Inc NEE $75.74 $29.97 −60%
The Southern Company SO $82.89 $57.57 −31%
Duke Energy Corporation DUK $113.41 $74.88 −34%
American Electric Power Company AEP $118.64 $100.03 −16%
Dominion Energy, Inc D $60.76 $37.84 −38%
Entergy Corporation ETR $98.10 $37.37 −62%
Xcel Energy Inc XEL $69.39 $54.92 −21%
Exelon Corporation EXC $40.32 $36.01 −11%
Consolidated Edison, Inc ED $103.33 $47.76 −54%
PG&E Corporation PCG $12.34 $17.85 +45%

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Terna S.p.A · Fair Value
€5.35 −42%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Terna S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0LBM

Frequently asked questions

Is Terna S.p.A (0LBM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €5.35 versus a price of €9.21, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0LBM?
Our model-based fair value for Terna S.p.A is €5.35 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €9.21.
What is the quality score of 0LBM?
Terna S.p.A has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Terna S.p.A (0LBM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €5.35 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.76, optimistic scenario €7.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Terna S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €5.35, about −42% upside versus a price of €9.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.76, optimistic scenario €7.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Terna S.p.A (0LBM)?
Terna S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Terna S.p.A pay a dividend?
Terna S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.01% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Terna S.p.A (0LBM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Terna S.p.A it is €5.35 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €9.21. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Terna S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 0LBM trades above its calculated fair value: price €9.21, fair value €5.35, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0LBM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€9.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€5.35). For Terna S.p.A the two are €3.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Terna S.p.A worth?
The market values Terna S.p.A at about €14.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €9.21; our models calculate a fair value of €5.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0LBM?
Our models span a range for Terna S.p.A: cautious scenario €2.76, base €5.35, optimistic €7.67 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €9.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0LBM?
Terna S.p.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.2 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €5.35 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Terna S.p.A (0LBM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Terna S.p.A (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 13.3%, debt of 2.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0LBM from its 52-week high?
Terna S.p.A trades at €9.21, about 11% below its 52-week high of €10.39 and 12% above the low of €8.20 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €5.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Terna S.p.A?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Terna S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €9.21, calculated fair value €5.35 (−42%), Quality Score 57/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0LBM calculated?
We run Terna S.p.A through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €5.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Terna S.p.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Terna S.p.A (0LBM)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €9.21. Our model-based fair value is €5.35, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Terna S.p.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€7.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (€2.76 to €7.67). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Terna S.p.A

How large is the market capitalisation of Terna S.p.A (0LBM)?
The market capitalisation of Terna S.p.A is €14.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Terna S.p.A (0LBM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Terna S.p.A is 0.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Terna S.p.A (0LBM)?
Earnings per share at Terna S.p.A are €0.3940 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Terna S.p.A (0LBM)?
The dividend yield of Terna S.p.A is 4.0% (payout 93.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Terna S.p.A (0LBM)?
The net margin of Terna S.p.A is 31.9% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Terna S.p.A (0LBM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Terna S.p.A is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Terna S.p.A (0LBM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Terna S.p.A is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Terna S.p.A (0LBM)?
The operating margin of Terna S.p.A is 45.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Terna S.p.A (0LBM)?
Revenue at Terna S.p.A is growing +9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Terna S.p.A (0LBM)?
Earnings per share at Terna S.p.A are growing −4.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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