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Heineken Holding (0NBD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Heineken Holding €105, price €64.93, upside +61.4%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Defensive · GB · ISIN NL0000008977

HH Thin data Oct 3, 2026

Heineken Holding

0NBD · LSE

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value €104.76 · Strongly undervalued (+61.4%)
!Quality 48/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −3.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.3% net margin (TTM)
!High debt
·2.9% dividend yield · Safety not assessed
!Moderate moat 45/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

€82.25 €53.26 Fair Value €104.76 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €53.26 – €82.25 · fair‑value band €68.20 – €138.62 · the €64.93 price screens below the €104.76 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Heineken Holding N.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in brewing and selling beer and cider in the Netherlands, Europe, the Americas, Africa & Middle East, Asia Pacific and internationally. The company's portfolio consists of approximately 340 international, regional, local, and specialty beers and ciders.

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Heineken Holding N.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in brewing and selling beer and cider in the Netherlands, Europe, the Americas, Africa & Middle East, Asia Pacific and internationally. The company's portfolio consists of approximately 340 international, regional, local, and specialty beers and ciders. The company was founded in 1864 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken Holding N.V. is a subsidiary of L'Arche Green N.V.

Stock analysis

Heineken Holding (0NBD) currently trades at €64.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €104.76, implying the stock looks roughly 38.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €95.27 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the €64.93 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €10.53, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €68.20 (bear) to €138.62 (bull), the price of €64.93 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Heineken Holding reported revenue of €19.7B in FY2020 versus €20.8B in FY2016, a compound −1.3%/yr. Reported net income was −€102M in FY2020.

Key figures

Market cap €21.9B · P/S ratio 0.76 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin −0.5% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4% · Operating margin 14.0% · Revenue (TTM) €28.8B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 61%, 0NBD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €68.20 Fair Value €104.76 Bull €138.62
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €101.01 €151.95 €246.31 75
Growth DCF €107.05 €156.50 €241.08 74
5Y EBITDA Exit €62.01 €95.27 €139.38 71
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €101.01 €151.95 €246.31 75
5Y Revenue Exit €33.08 €45.19 €62.47 70
5Y EBITDA Exit €62.01 €95.27 €139.38 71
10Y Revenue Exit €58.20 €69.63 €80.33 65
10Y EBITDA Exit €76.32 €100.60 €125.48 67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €29.97 €32.80 €37.12 67
DDM Multi-Stage €29.97 €37.60 €48.30 65
Multiples
EV/EBIT €0.7100 €10.53 €20.35 57
EV/EBITDA €48.77 €74.61 €100.44 66
EV/Revenue n/a €1.29 >€5.16 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €9.81 €13.14 €19.61 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €107.05 €156.50 €241.08 74
Rev-Margin DCF €33.08 €48.24 €68.53 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 90
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 44
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
13.3% (2016) → 3.9% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

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Compare Heineken Holding with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −48.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10.1% · Above median
Return on assets 4.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 14.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −2.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.07× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.85× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.88× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.3× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI €64.56 €61.20 −5%
Heineken N.V HEIA €69.66 €69.18 −1%
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX $118.85 $28.57 −76%
Constellation Brands, Inc STZ $112.99 $183.71 +63%
Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 ¥49.89 ¥63.71 +28%
Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP $35.95 $79.18 +120%
Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 ¥10.78 ¥11.10 +3%
United Breweries Limited UBL ₹1,158 ₹141.82 −88%
Royal Unibrew A/S RBREW kr 411.40 kr 662.99 +61%
Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co 002461 ¥8.39 ¥7.21 −14%

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Heineken Holding · Fair Value
€104.76 +38%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heineken Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0NBD

Frequently asked questions

Is Heineken Holding (0NBD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €104.76 versus a price of €64.93, about +61% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0NBD?
Our model-based fair value for Heineken Holding is €104.76 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €64.93.
What is the quality score of 0NBD?
Heineken Holding has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heineken Holding (0NBD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €104.76 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario €68.20, optimistic scenario €138.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heineken Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €104.76, about +61% upside versus a price of €64.93 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €68.20, optimistic scenario €138.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heineken Holding (0NBD)?
Heineken Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €28.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Heineken Holding pay a dividend?
Heineken Holding currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.93% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Heineken Holding (0NBD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heineken Holding it is €104.76 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of €64.93. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heineken Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 0NBD trades below its calculated fair value: price €64.93, fair value €104.76, a gap of about +61% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0NBD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€64.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€104.76). For Heineken Holding the two are €39.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heineken Holding worth?
The market values Heineken Holding at about €21.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is €64.93; our models calculate a fair value of €104.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0NBD?
Our models span a range for Heineken Holding: cautious scenario €68.20, base €104.76, optimistic €138.62 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price €64.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heineken Holding (0NBD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heineken Holding (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 2.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0NBD from its 52-week high?
Heineken Holding trades at €64.93, about 14% below its 52-week high of €75.35 and 13% above the low of €57.64 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €104.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heineken Holding?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Constellation Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heineken Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price €64.93, calculated fair value €104.76 (+61%), Quality Score 48/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0NBD calculated?
We run Heineken Holding through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €104.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Heineken Holding currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heineken Holding (0NBD)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €64.93. Our model-based fair value is €104.76, about +61% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heineken Holding right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€68.20). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€68.20 to €138.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Heineken Holding

How large is the market capitalisation of Heineken Holding (0NBD)?
The market capitalisation of Heineken Holding is €21.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heineken Holding (0NBD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heineken Holding is 0.76 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Heineken Holding (0NBD)?
The dividend yield of Heineken Holding is 2.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Heineken Holding (0NBD)?
The net margin of Heineken Holding is −0.5% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heineken Holding (0NBD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heineken Holding is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heineken Holding (0NBD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heineken Holding is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heineken Holding (0NBD)?
The operating margin of Heineken Holding is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heineken Holding (0NBD)?
Revenue at Heineken Holding is growing −2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heineken Holding (0NBD)?
Earnings per share at Heineken Holding are growing +5.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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